Colorado Avalanche: Top 10 prospects entering the 2018 season
The Colorado Avalanche have one of the best prospect pools in the NHL heading into the 2018 season. Here are the best 10 headliners of an excellent group.
The Colorado Avalanche have one of the best prospect pipelines in the NHL right now. The draft work by the team of scouts and GM Joe Sakic has been exemplary. While the current team doesn’t look so good, the future is bright for Colorado. Behind a young core, that’s an excellent thing.
These prospects are ranked based on three factors – NHL readiness, ceiling, and the chance that they play consistent minutes with the Colorado Avalanche. Ceiling is the most important of these, because while the top prospects aren’t necessarily the most NHL ready, they should shape up to be the best.
Let’s start with the goaltenders.
1. Justus Annunen [18 years old]
Stats (Karpat, Liiga): 26 games played, 2.31 goals against average, .907 save percentage (12 playoff games played, 1.83 GAA, .935 SV%).
Stats (Karpat U20, Jr. A SM-liiga): 1 gp, 4.00 GAA, .892 save percentage.
Justus Annunen was drafted in the third round of the 2018 draft and was thought of as one of the best goaltenders headed into the draft. He’s the highest a goaltender has gone to the Avalanche since 2013. Annunen has a bad history of goaltenders drafted in the first three rounds by the Avs to succeed. The bar has been set low for Annunen, but he should raise it.
The bar has been set low for Annunen, but he should raise it
Annunen did really well in the Jr. A SM-liiga, the top developmental league in Finland. He had a .907 save percentage and 2.31 goals against average. That was tied for 21st in the league and was the fourth best goals-against average. Amongst goaltenders 18 and younger, Annunen had the third-best save percentage and had the best goals-against average.
Annunen didn’t do as well at the professional level, getting just one game in the Liiga and posting a .892 save percentage. He has time, however, and he has a long road ahead of him. His ceiling is what makes him the best goaltender in the Colorado Avalanche’s pipeline, as he could be their future starter.
2. Adam Werner [21 years old]
Stats (IF Bjorkloven, Allsvenskan): 47 gp, 2.34 GAA, .915 save percentage (5 pgp, 2.38 GAA, .902 SV%).
Stats (San Antonio Rampage, AHL): 4 gp, 3.35 GAA, .880 save percentage.
Adam Werner did really well in Sweden’s second league, getting a .915 save percentage in the Allsvenskan in 47 games. That was tied for ninth in the Allsvenskan, and his GAA, a 2.34, was 10th best. He was one of the best goaltenders in one of the best developmental leagues overseas.
With a better season next year, Werner could shape up to be a potential NHL goaltender
Which is why his transition to the AHL going badly was quite shocking. In four games, Werner had just a 3.35 GAA and .880 save percentage. That was with the San Antonio Rampage, however, a team he will not be with next season, and with the Colorado Eagles, in a better position to help him succeed, and with a longer run, Werner could prove to be better than his initial stint.
With a better season this year, Werner could shape up to be a potential NHL goaltender. He likely won’t be the starter the Colorado Avalanche need, at least not long term, but if he’s a good backup in the long run, that’s an important thing.
10. Josh Dickinson, C [20 years old]
Stats (Clarkson University, NCAA): 40 games played, 15 goals, 11 assists, 26 points, 6 power-play goals, 1 game-winning goal, .65 points per game.
Josh Dickinson comes in the last place here because he had one of the worst seasons statistically on this list, but he did well as a Freshman in the NCAA and then did well in the AHL. He earned his contract with the Colorado Avalanche and will get a full chance at the AHL soon with the Eagles. If he can do better given more games and a bigger platform, then he’ll be an excellent prospect moving forward.
If he can do better given more games and a bigger platform, then he’ll be an excellent prospect moving forward.
Still, his season is anything but awe-inspiring and he needs to play better in the future. His ceiling is hard to tell for the reason that he was a 19-year-old Freshman last season. He went undrafted three times and was eventually signed to a contract by the Colorado Avalanche perhaps because they need more players at the AHL level.
Dickinson has another chance to prove himself this season. Take advantage of it, prove what he can do at the professional level, and his prospects of someday playing for the Colorado Avalanche are looking up.
9. Denis Smirnov, RW/LW [20 years old]
Stats (Penn State University, NCAA): 30 gp, 15 g, 12 a, 27 p, 6 PPG, 3 GWG, .90 pts/g.
A good season in the NCAA can get it all back, however, and could mean a bigger step towards being a member of the Avalanche.
Denis Smirnov is close to the rear on this list not because of a bad season – no, he did quite well in the NCAA, but because he took a step back from what was an extremely excellent freshman year.
Smirnov went from 47 points to 27 points, dropping four goals from 19 to 15. That kind of step back, especially in a prospect pool as deep as the Colorado Avalanche’s, is a bad sign for development.
Smirnov still has the ceiling of being an NHL player and remains a decent goal scorer. His NHL readiness is clearly nowhere near where it should be, and the chance that he plays for the Colorado Avalanche is slipping away. A good season in the NCAA can get it all back, however, and could mean a bigger step towards being a member of the Avalanche.
8. Igor Shvyryov, C [20] (5-125, 2017)
10 gp, 5 g, 12 a, 17 p (2 pgp, 1 g, 2 a, 3 p). Stalnye Lisy Magnitogorsk, MHL; 32 gp, 1 g, 0 a, 1 p (3 pgp, 0 g, 0 a, 0 p). Metallurg Magnitogorsk, KHL
He did a lot of damage in the best developmental league overseas
Shvyryov was fifth in points per game in the MHL, one of the reasons he tops the other 20-year-old Russian on this list in Smirnov. He didn’t do so well at the KHL level, however, which is why he’s been dropped down this list. He’s clearly not NHL ready and again, with a lot of centers in the Colorado Avalanche’s system, there’s a smaller chance that he plays for the team.
But he’s got a high ceiling. He did a lot of damage in the best developmental league overseas and while he’s currently 20 years of age, there’s a significant chance he plays in the AHL this season. With an impressive season there, he shows what he can do in North America. Even if it takes a while, if Igor Shvyryov ever gets near a point-per-game pace in the AHL, he’ll be the NHL player the Avalanche expect.
7. Sampo Ranta, LW [18 years old]
Stats (Sioux City Musketeers, USHL): 53 gp, 23 g, 14 a, 37 p, 193 shots on goal, 7 PPG (8 A), 2 GWG, 2 empty net goals, .70 pts/g.
Sampo Ranta was projected as a potential first-round pick by some and as a top 50 pick by most in the 2018 NHL Draft. The fact that he fell to 78 for the Colorado Avalanche is a miracle for the team, who could use a big, dominant-on-the-puck power forward who will provide a net-front presence for the future. He already has the body of a good NHLer, standing 6’2″ and weighing in at 190 pounds.
The fact that he fell to 78 for the Colorado Avalanche is a miracle for the team
Ranta is an excellent goal scorer, and he came up with 23 goals in 53 games. That was good for tied for 18th this past season in the USHL. He’s developing a goal scorer’s touch, and again, for the role he plays, he’s scoring repeatable high-danger goals and is learning to score on the cleanup. For the future Colorado Avalanche’s power play, that’s an incredibly useful asset.
And that’s what Ranta should be. He might not get much higher than a good middle-six forward, but he’ll be excellent on the power play. For a team in need of depth and better tools for the man advantage, that’s a good thing.
6. Shane Bowers, C [19 years old]
Stats (Boston University, NCAA): 40 gp, 17 g, 15 a, 32 p. Boston University, NCAA
Shane Bowers was a first-round pick from the Ottawa Senators last season, a part of the return from the Matt Duchene trade. Maybe that’s why the Colorado Avalanche can afford to have him this low in their prospect list and still be fine and in fact one of the best prospect pools in the NHL. He’s got the fact that he’s a first-round pick going for him, but that’s about it.
Bowers has a high likelihood of being a member of the Colorado Avalanche
It’s hard to tell what his ceiling is right now, but it looks like a third line center. Behind Nathan MacKinnon, the Avalanche don’t have a whole ton. Which means Bowers grading out to a bottom-six forward could potentially be a problem. He’s not one of the best scorers out there, but he did well enough, especially in his Freshman season.
Bowers has a high likelihood of being a member of the Colorado Avalanche, but his ceiling and his NHL readiness (he’s not) hamper his grading. Still, a team wouldn’t spend a first-round pick on a prospect they don’t believe in, and the Avalanche wouldn’t have acquired Bowers (over players like Colin White or Logan Brown) if they didn’t believe in him.
5. Ty Lewis, LW [20 years old]
Stats (Brandon Wheat Kings, WHL): 70 gp, 44 g, 56 a, 100 p, 11 PPG (23 A), 3 shorthanded goals (1 A), 9 GWG, 238 SOG, 1.43 pts/g (11 pgp, 6 g, 7 a, 13 p, 2 PPG (1 A), 1 SHG, 1.18 pts/g). T-8 scoring, T-10 goal scoring, T-13 assists, 13th pts/g; T-21 goal scoring, T-31 scoring, T-40 assists, T-30 pts/g
Ty Lewis was top 15 in every important category this past season in the WHL. He tied for eighth in scoring, tenth in goal scoring, 13th in assists, and was 13th in points per game. That’s why he’s this high up on this list – he was excellent in every way when it came to scoring, and that’s a very useful asset down the road for the Colorado Avalanche.
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Keep in mind that Lewis accomplished this feat at 19 (turning 20 in March) and had that advantage over the rest of the league. Still, for an undrafted player, to put up those numbers is an impressive achievement. That’s why the Colorado Avalanche nabbed him, because he has the ceiling of being a key part of secondary scoring down the road (middle-six winger, likely on the second line) and he is more NHL ready than many of the Avalanche’s prospects.
He didn’t do that well in the playoffs, but he also didn’t get that many games. Still, 30th in points per game is not great for someone his age who accomplished what he did in the regular season. He’s got the credentials on all special teams to play on both in the AHL, and this season will be a very important one for the (still) young winger.
4. Vladislav Kamenev, C/LW [21 years old]
Stats (Milwaukee Admirals, AHL):10 gp, 3 g, 5 a, 8 p, 1 PPA, 1 SHA, 1 GWG, 23 SOG, .80 pts/g.
Stats (San Antonio Rampage, AHL): 7 gp, 0 g, 8 a, 8 p, 5 PPA, 12 SOG, 1.14 pts/g.
Stats (Colorado Avalanche, NHL): 3 gp, 0 g, 0 a, 0 p.
Another part of the Duchene trade, Vladislav Kamenev has become one of the best players in the pipeline for the Colorado Avalanche very quickly. After a successful season last year – 51 points in 70 games with the Milwaukee Admirals – Kamenev had a very good season, albeit one plagued by injury. Kamenev had eight points in ten games with the Admirals, eight points in seven games with the San Antonio Rampage and had some games with the Avalanche.
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Kamenev has a very high ceiling, as he could be a top-six forward in the future. He’s produced well enough on the AHL level to prove that. He could anchor a line behind MacKinnon, even if he’s not the center. He moves the puck well, he’s big, and he’s always been seen as having a good ceiling (being a top 50 pick in 2014).
Kamenev is also NHL ready – he played games last season – and he has a very high likelihood of playing consistent minutes with the Colorado Avalanche. The only thing limiting him is his ceiling versus those of the players ahead of them. As good as he can be, a second-line left winger is not as good as a first-line right winger or top-four defensemen.
3. Martin Kaut, RW [18 years old]
Stats (HC Dynamo Pardubice, Czech): 38 gp, 9 g, 7 a, 16 p (7 pgp, 3 g, 2 a, 5 p).
Martin Kaut is a top-line ceiling player. That’s why he got picked 16th in this year’s draft class, a much deeper one than in previous seasons. Kaut is the best forward the Colorado Avalanche have in terms of ceiling, and while he’ll need a few years to transition to the NHL, including a stop in the AHL, he’ll potentially get to a place where he’s an impact player.
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Kaut was one of the best prospects in the Czech League this past season, up there with Martin Necas (Carolina Hurricanes) amongst players under the age of 20. Kaut was second in points per game (more than two games) amongst Czech teenagers, second in scoring, third in assists, and was tied for first in goal scoring. In the playoffs, Kaut was first in points per game amongst teenagers with more than two games.
There’s a reason Kaut was selected, and there’s a reason Kaut was so highly touted headed into the draft. He went a bit lower than he was projected, which might end up being a very good thing for the Colorado Avalanche. To have Kaut as part of the future for the team should be a very good thing.
2. Conor Timmins, D [19 years old]
Stats (Sault Ste. Marie Greyhounds, OHL): 36 gp, 8 g, 33 a, 41 p, 4 PPG (11 A), 2 SHA, 1 GWG, 93 SOG, 1.14 pts/g (23 gp, 5 g, 13 a, 18 p, 2 PPG (9 A), 1 SHG, 2 GWG, 62 SOG, .78 pts/g).
Conor Timmins is a top-four defenseman in the works, impressing even in a shortened season. He proved that in the playoffs, when he was tied for first in scoring, first in goal scoring, and was third in assists and ninth in points per game. Even in half of a regular season, Timmins was tied for 17th in scoring, 22nd in goal scoring, 13th in assists, and was fourth in points per game. Timmins can do a ton of damage in a short amount of time, and that’s excellent for the Colorado Avalanche.
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What isn’t excellent is his injury, because it means it could come up again later in his career. Still, it shouldn’t hamper his ceiling, as he’s still a very highly touted almost sure-fire top-four defensemen who will quarterback the power play. He can also play defensively, has the size to be a difference maker in his own end, and was seen as a first-round pick the year he was drafted.
Timmins was selected to the OHL’s Second All-Star Team, helped Canada win the U20 World Junior Championships Gold medal, and was named a U20 World Junior Championship Top 3 player on the team. He’s very good, but he’s just not as good as this next guy.
1. Cale Makar, D [19 years old]
Stats (UMass Amherst, NCAA): 34 gp, 5 g, 16 a, 21 p. T-50 scoring, T-54 goal scoring, T-51 assists, T-46 pts/g
21 points in 34 games don’t appear as good as the damage Timmins did. But the awards that Cale Makar picked up this season show how good he was as compared to the competition he faced, different competition than that of Timmins.
Makar was named to the NCAA (Hockey East) All-Rookie team, the Hockey East All-Star Third Team, the NCAA (New England) Rookie of the Year, the U20 World Junior Championships All-Star Team, and the WJC Top 3 Players on Team list. In the WJC, Makar scored the most goals and most points by a defenseman.
In addition, Makar was tied for 50th in scoring, 54th in goal scoring, 51st in assists, and 46th in points per game. Amongst defensemen under 20, Makar was tenth in scoring, tied for eighth in goals, was tenth in assists, and was eighth in points per game. That shows more the ability of Makar as opposed to the rest of his NCAA competition.
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For a player who moves the puck incredibly well, who can skate and make quick decisions and who can jump into plays and make the defensive stops necessary, those are great signs. Makar will be one of the most dependable players on the Colorado Avalanche’s blue line since the Cups era. He’s not Ray Bourque, but if his ceiling is anywhere close, that’s an excellent thing.