Calgary Flames: Noah Hanifin, James Neal give Flames high hopes
The Calgary Flames had an offseason full of changes, led by the additions of Noah Hanifin and James Neal. Will those changes be good or bad for their Stanley Cup chances?
The Calgary Flames were one of the most disappointing teams in the NHL last season. After making the Stanley Cup Playoffs in 2016-17 and adding Travis Hamonic, many had them as one of the top teams in the Pacific Division. However, that was not the case, as the Flames lost nine of their last 11 games to miss the postseason. Trading for Noah Hanifin was a part of a summer of changes.
This brought about some necessary changes, as head coach Glen Gulutzman was dismissed and replaced by former Carolina Hurricanes head coach Bill Peters. Also, the Flames traded top pairing defenseman Dougie Hamilton and forward Micheal Ferland, along with prospect Adam Fox, for Hanifin and Elias Lindholm.
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In free agency, Calgary signed consistent goal-scoring forward James Neal and center Derek Ryan. The Flames are hoping these changes are for the best, as opposed to the worst. Losing Hamilton is a huge loss, but Calgary got better in other areas. Will it be enough, though?
Offseason Review
Additions: Hanifin, Lindholm, Ryan, Neal, F Anthony Peluso, F Kerby Rychel, F Garnet Hathaway (re-signed), G David Rittich (re-signed), D Brett Kulak (re-signed), F Mark Jankowski (re-signed), G Jon Gillies (re-signed), F Austin Czarnik, F Buddy Robinson, F Alan Quine, F Tyler Graovac
Departures: Hamilton, Ferland, F Hunter Shinkaruk, F Kris Versteeg, F Troy Brouwer
The Flames did a lot to address their lack of forward depth. They now have a plethora of options there, which should help them. Brouwer got bought out just two years into an ill-advised deal during the summer of 2016. If nothing else, this opens up a roster spot for a younger and likely better player.
Projected Lineup
Forwards
Johnny Gaudreau – Sean Monahan – James Neal
Matthew Tkachuk – Mikael Backlund – Michael Frolik
Sam Bennett – Derek Ryan – Elias Lindholm
Mark Jankowski – Austin Czarnik – Garnet Hathaway
Depth options: Curtis Lazar, Alan Quine, Kerby Rychel
Expect to see Neal get the first crack at the top forward line. Gaudreau and Monahan need a guy who can score goals and he can certainly do that. The Flames have an outstanding second line, which serves as their shutdown line. Calgary was a far better possession team with the three “M’s” on the ice.
Lindholm makes sense as the third-line right wing, though he could get some minutes on the top line as well. It’s worth noting Peters is quite familiar with him, as he coached him in Carolina. The Flames third line should benefit from the addition of Ryan. Bennett could be on his last chance in Calgary.
The fourth line is nothing to write home about, but on paper, it should be much better than last season’s. Calgary has solid depth options as well.
Defensemen
Noah Hanifin – Travis Hamonic
Brett Kulak – Michael Stone
Depth options: Rasmus Andersson, Oliver Kylington, Dalton Prout.
Let’s make one thing clear. Andersson should not be a depth option. But thanks to factors beyond his control, the largest being Stone getting a big extension, there’s not a spot in the Flames lineup for him. Andersson and Kylington should be the first guys called up if there are injuries.
Giordano and Brodie have had success together as recently as the 2015-16 season. The Flames are hoping reuniting the pair will offset the loss of Hamilton. Hanifin’s job will be to help Hamonic bounce back from an abysmal season. Having a really great top pairing should make things easier, but Hanifin’s still going to be asked to play a larger role than any he’s played in the NHL to date.
Kulak and Stone should make up the third pairing. Neither of the two inspires much confidence and, as a pairing, they struggled last season. Adding Andersson or Kylington to the mix could help, but it’s hard to see what Peters is going to do there.
Goaltenders
David Rittich
Jon Gilles
Smith will be the starter by default. He did well last season, but he could really use a reliable backup to give him some rest. Rittich will probably have the upper hand in the training camp battle with Gilles.
Strengths
Much Improved Top Nine
Last season, the Calgary Flames didn’t have much forward depth, and it showed. Whenever Gaudreau and Monahan didn’t score, they usually didn’t get much from their forwards. That shouldn’t be the case this season. Adding Ryan, Neal, and Lindholm to the roster makes the Flames a noticeably deeper team.
Elite Shutdown Line
If you ignore the goals for numbers, which were skewed thanks to a 91.13 on-ice save percentage and 5.71 on-ice shooting percentage (both at five-on-five), there were very few forward lines more effective than Tkachuk, Backlund, and Frolik. Getting them to produce is on the Flames’ to do list, but Peters has a line he can throw out against anyone and expect success from. That’s huge.
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Young Defensemen
Again, let’s start off by saying both Andersson and Kylington ought to be on the NHL roster. But they aren’t. Still, the Flames quietly have a trio of impressive young defensemen. We’ll get to Hanifin later, but let’s just say his extension with Calgary could prove to be a nice bargain. Andersson has dominated in the AHL and so has Kylington. The former has been better, though. Calgary could really use a boost defensively and Andersson and Kylington could be the guys who give it.
Weaknesses
Goaltending
Smith is a perfectly acceptable starting goaltender. Even though he’s on the wrong side of 30, he’s still an above-average starter. However, Smith’s durability is starting to show, as signs of fatigue haunted him last season. Unfortunately, the Flames didn’t get him a better backup goalie. Hopefully one of Rittich and Gillies will step up. That said, if you know what you’re doing, it’s not that hard to find a competent backup goalie.
Weakened Pairings
The Flames are unquestionably worse off defensively without Hamilton. Even when Brodie and Giordano had success together, it wasn’t close to the success Giordano and Hamilton had together. An elite top pairing is now merely a very good to great one.
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Also, Kulak and Stone bled shot attempts against last season. The Flames were outshot and outscored with the duo on the ice. Gulutzman did nothing to address this obvious issue, but perhaps Peters, being the new guy in town, will give Andersson or Kylington a shot.
Power Play
The Flames power play was horrific last season. Ahd that’s putting it very lightly. They only converted on 15.99 percent of their chances, the fourth-lowest mark in the NHL. It’s up to the coaching staff to fix it. Hamilton was a big part of the minimal success they had (12 PP points), so the Flames will have to account for that.
Noah’s Arc
The Calgary Flames are banking on Hanifin to make their defense more balanced. If they’re expecting him to immediately replace Hamilton, they’ll be sorely disappointed. But if Hanifin can be Hamonic’s whisperer and help solidify their second pairing, that would help negate losing Dougie.
Despite being on a Hurricanes team that struggled to score, Hanifin was impressive last season. Among defensemen with at least 750 minutes, he ranked 28th in five-on-five points per hour. Hanifin also ranked in the top 20 in five-on-five goals per hour. The Flames struggled at five-on-five last year, so he should help there.
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Perhaps what’s most impressive about Hanifin is most of his production to this point has come at even strength. Of his 83 points, just over 25 percent (21 points) have come on the power play. To this point, Hanifin has been largely sheltered during his career, thanks to the Hurricanes deep defensive core. But he’s certainly shown enough to warrant a larger role. That was never happening in Carolina.
Hanifin has similar numbers to the ones Hamilton posted before being traded to the Flames. Except the former didn’t rely much on power play production while the latter did. Plus, Hamilton was on a better team.
The Flames are pushing in all their chips with Hanifin. They believe he has what it takes to be a strong top four defenseman. Maybe even a top pairing defenseman. The latter, though not likely, is plausible.
Burning Questions
Were Their Changes Good Ones?
Change can be a good thing or a bad thing. The Calgary Flames are obviously hoping their summer changes are the former instead of the latter. Peters hasn’t won anywhere yet and had some issues in Carolina. Maybe a fresh start is all he needed. But Peters will be on the hot seat because it’s about time his teams start winning.
Is A Deeper Defense Better?
Hamilton is an elite top pairing defenseman. Losing him obviously hurts the Flames a bit. But, in a roundabout way, maybe losing him was necessary for the Flames defense to become deeper. Hanifin should be an upgrade over Brodie on the second pairing, as the latter never really had much chemistry with Hamonic.
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We know Brodie and Giordano can be great together, but are those days behind them? The Flames defense, on paper, is deeper. But the jury is still out on if it’s any better.
Who’s On Top?
The Flames top line is going to be great no matter who plays with Gaudreau and Monahan. They’re a reliable duo and both are extremely talented. Neal might give the Flames a deeper forward core. However, there’s a good argument for Lindholm too, who has always looked a bit out of place as a center. Peters will have some difficult decisions to make, but that’s why he’s getting paid the big bucks.
Season Prediction
The Calgary Flames are a deeper team than they were last season. Armed with a better equipped offense and a likely still good blueline, they look like a team primed to push for the postseason. Neal and Lindholm should help the Flames overcome their scoring woes from the 2017-18 season.
Their goaltending will be a huge X-factor. Smith isn’t a lock to repeat last season’s numbers, as he’s 36 years old and will turn 37 in March. And even if he can, the Flames goaltending depth is unimpressive, to say the least. Expect them to scour the market for a better goaltender as the season progresses.
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The Pacific Division is going to be tough to figure out. But I think the Flames have the most skill of all of the team, from top to bottom. They’ll have to figure out precisely what went wrong last season and how to fix it. Firing Gulutzman should help facilitate those changes, as he was very reluctant to try to fix some obvious problems.
With better luck and more efficient scoring, the Flames should improve on last season’s nightmare and be pretty close to the team we all thought they would be last season. They have the skill and depth necessary to make the Stanley Cup Playoffs.