Minnesota Wild preview: Ryan Suter leads aging but talented core
The Minnesota Wild have a core that should be winning postseason games. However, they’ve been eliminated in the first round in each of the past three seasons. Could Ryan Suter and the Wild exorcise their demons like the Washington Capitals did?
The state of Minnesota has been on the wrong end of a lot of disappointment involving sports ever since the Minnesota Twins won the World Series in 1991. A source for a lot of their agony in recent years has been the Minnesota Wild. When they signed Ryan Suter and Zach Parise to the last of the ill-advised 10+ year deals, they were expecting they would carry them to a Stanley Cup. That hasn’t happened yet.
Stop me if you’ve heard this one – the Wild are a really good team in the regular season who fail to get it done in the postseason. This should sound familiar because a lot of people were saying those precise words about the Washington Capitals before last season. And look what happened to them.
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The Wild are remarkably similar to the Caps. While they do lack the elite talent the Capitals have, they have a well-balanced team coached by someone with the perhaps unfair reputation of being a choker in the postseason. On the other hand, much like the Caps, the Wild’s window of contention is starting to close, especially since they’re in a very competitive Central Division.
Minnesota is known as the State of Hockey, but lately, it’s been the State of Postseason Sadness. The Wild are going to try to change that.
Offseason Recap
Additions: F J.T. Brown, F Matt Hendricks, D Greg Pateryn, F Eric Fehr, D Matt Bartkowski, G Andrew Hammond, F Matt Read
Most of the Wild’s moves this summer were done to improve their overall depth. Between Brown, Hendricks, Fehr, and Read, they have a solid group of depth forwards to choose from. This should help improve their fourth line, which was a bit of an issue last season. The full-time addition of 2018 Olympian Jordan Greenway should help as well.
The Wild are a defense-first team, which makes Pateryn a very nice fit. He put up some impressive shot suppressing numbers with the Dallas Stars. Pateryn should give the Wild some more defensive depth, which is never a bad thing.
Stats are courtesy of Natural Stat Trick and Corsica.
Projected Lineup
How will the Minnesota Wild look this season? Roster projections are with the help of Daily Faceoff and Roster Resource. Additions are noted in italics.
Forwards
Zach Parise – Eric Staal – Nino Niederreiter
Jason Zucker – Mikko Koivu – Mikael Granlund
Jordan Greenway – Joel Eriksson Ek – Charlie Coyle
Marcus Foligno – Eric Fehr – J.T. Brown
Extra forward candidates: Matt Hendricks, Matt Read, Kyle Rau
The Wild have a pretty darn good group of top six forwards. Staal will lead their top scoring line. If Parise stays healthy (knock on wood), it wouldn’t be surprising to see it be one of the NHL’s most efficient trios.
Koivu is an extremely underrated forward, as a lot of what he does best is a bit hard to quantify. He’s one of the NHL’s best shutdown centers but rarely gets credit for it since his offensive numbers aren’t impressive. I’m curious to see if the Wild try experimenting with different options on the second line to see if they can revive Koivu’s offense. Because if they can get good offense out of that line, that would be a huge help.
The third line is a relatively inexperienced one. Eriksson Ek’s offense hasn’t developed as planned and neither has Greenway’s. Coyle is trending in the wrong direction for a variety of reasons, but he’s put up solid numbers in the past. If he starts producing again, that could make their third line a lot more respectable.
This is an old forward group, but for now, it’s still a good one.
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Defense
Ryan Suter – Jared Spurgeon
Nick Seeler – Greg Pateryn
Extra defenseman: Nate Prosser
Suter is on the wrong side of 30, but give the guy credit. He’s still a workhorse and is still a guy you can count on to play well over 20 minutes a night and lead both special team units. Suter is coming off a really bad ankle injury that could have been career ending. As long as it doesn’t come back to bite him, he’s going to remain one of the NHL’s best defensemen.
Spurgeon has always put up good numbers alongside Suter. They’re a great shutdown pairing. Brodin is a fairly polarizing player, as he’s a bit inconsistent. But he usually plays his best hockey when he’s paired with Dumba, who’s a bit more offensively minded.
Seeler did respectably well in a sheltered role last season. Being paired with Pateryn should be a good thing for him. Don’t expect much offense from this pairing though, as neither has been overly impressive as far as production. Prosser is a viable depth option, but if the Wild lose someone long-term, they should explore acquiring an upgrade.
Goaltending
Strengths
Beautiful Blueline
No team allowed fewer five-on-five expected goals against per hour last season than the Wild (1.95). Head coach Bruce Boudreau has the reputation of being an offensive juggernaut, but give him credit for making Minnesota’s strength an outstanding one. This proves he’s a coach who adapts to the pieces he is given.
It all starts with their blueline. Suter, Spurgeon, Pateryn, Dumba, Brodin, and Seeler are all quality NHL defensemen. The first is laughing in the face of Father Time and is still a difference maker even as he ages. Their depth past those six guys is a bit alarming, but to be fair, that’s the case with a lot of teams.
Penalty Kill
The Wild’s shorthanded units ranked 13th overall last season, killing 81.25 percent of their penalties. I expect them to be even better this season. They allowed the third-fewest expected goals against per hour while killing penalties in 2017-18.
Shorthanded goaltending is volatile and unpredictable. Among goalies with at least 150 minutes spent shorthanded, Dubnyk was below average (22nd out of 35) and Stalock was above average (10th out of 35) as far as save percentage. It’s worth noting Dubnyk had the second-highest expected save percentage. If he does better, the Wild’s penalty kill is going to be a huge strength for them.
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Top Six Talent
I’m a huge fan of the Wild’s top two forward lines. Even if Staal doesn’t score 40+ goals again, he’s a guy who consistently scores at an impressive rate and can drive possession. Koivu’s defense makes his offensive shortcomings far less noticeable. He had his best season defensively in 2017-18, but he’s always posted outstanding numbers across the board there.
Zucker is an underrated talent. All the guy does is score goals and yet you rarely hear his name. Niederreiter is a versatile weapon and it’ll be fun to see how the Wild use his well-balanced skill set. If Coyle bounces back, Niederreiter could drop to the third line to make their lineup far deeper and more lethal.
Weaknesses
Goaltending
Yes, you read that right. The Minnesota Wild goaltenders should be doing better than they are doing. During all situations and at five-on-five, the Wild had the lowest expected goals against per hour rate. Yet they ranked 10th in both categories in actual goals against. This solves the “chicken or the egg” issue once and for all. The Wild are great defensively because of the guys in front of their goaltenders, not because of their goaltenders.
At five-on-five, among goalies with at least 1000 minutes played, Dubnyk had the highest expected save percentage while Stalock ranked fourth. Yet looking at actual save percentage, the former ranked 18th out of 51 goalies and the latter ranked 33rd. It’s hard to argue the Wild’s goaltenders aren’t underperforming. Minnesota has the defense necessary to be a legit Stanley Cup contender despite an unimpressive offense. Their goaltending needs to take advantage of that.
Scoring Depth
Though the Minnesota Wild ranked 12th in goals for last season, they relied a bit too heavily on their best guys. Zucker and Staal scored 75 of their 253 goals, which is roughly 30 percent of the team’s total. Though eight of their forwards picked up at least 10 goals, only three got over 20.
Even if you assume Parise stays healthy (which isn’t a given), that’s still only four goals who can get 20 goals. Maybe some guys step up, but you need contributions from all over your lineup to win a Stanley Cup. I’m not sold the Wild have that.
Season Prediction
Earlier, I compared the Minnesota Wild to the Capitals. In terms of the narrative, they’re really similar. Everything people say about the former not getting it done in the postseason was being said about the latter until June. The Wild don’t quite have the talent of the Capitals, but they’re still a team that should expect more than a first round exit.
Minnesota has its flaws and they’re obvious ones. But they have something every Stanley Cup champion has – a calling card. Something you can hang your hat on. Something that identifies your team. For the Wild, it’s their defense.
They were amazing defensively last season. On paper, adding Pateryn pushes into the “elite’ tier of defenses. I believe the Nashville Predators and San Jose Sharks have more talented defenses, but if you’re strictly talking making life easy for their goaltenders, the Wild have an elite defense.
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Now, can their offense step up? That’s the $1 million question. Also, it’s time for their goaltending to put up or shut up. The Wild are an aging team, but I believe they’re a team who should have Stanley Cup aspirations. Hopefully their new general manager Paul Fenton can do what Chuck Fletcher could never do – improve their team without hurting their future.
The Wild’s Stanley Cup window is slamming shut. This might well be their best chance to win something. The Capitals proved the world wrong by winning the Stanley Cup. Why not the Wild?