Montreal Canadiens preview: Carey Price holds the keys to success
The Montreal Canadiens have gone 25 years without winning a Stanley Cup. This season, they will rely on franchise goaltender Carey Price to bounce back and lead the team.
It was a rough summer for the Montreal Canadiens. Even though they got Jesperi Kotkaniemi in the 2018 NHL Draft, the Habs are undeniably worse off right now than they were before the offseason began.
Star defenseman Shea Weber will be out until at least December. They also traded their captain (and consistent goal scorer) Max Pacioretty, leaving a team that already struggled to score last season even drier. The Canadiens traded Alex Galchenyuk as well, who is merely several seasons removed from being a 30 goal scorer. Though at least they got Max Domi in return for him.
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The Canadiens should be a rebuilding team. But it’s hard to rebuild when you have guys like Weber and goaltender Carey Price signed to long-term deals. The latter is coming off the worst season of his career. However, Price is also quite capable of making the Canadiens appear to be better than they truly are. With the pressure rising in Montreal, the Habs are counting on him to return to form.
Offseason Recap:
Additions: F Max Domi, F Tomas Plekanec, F Kenny Agostino, F Matthew Peca, F Michael Chaput, D Xavier Ouellet, F Joel Armia, F Hunter Shinkaruk, F Tomas Tatar, F Nick Suzuki
Domi is a nice addition to the Canadiens. Sure, he came at a mighty hefty price tag. But Domi has quietly been a great passer and playmaker, setting guys up for scoring chances at a pretty darn impressive rate. A lot of Canadiens need to bounce back as far as scoring goals. Whoever plays with Domi is going to bounce back.
Plekanec is back in town, so the shops that sell turtlenecks are rejoicing. He gives the Canadiens some solid center depth and the fans a guy to root for. Agostino gives them another depth forward option. He consistently puts up nice numbers in the AHL, but hasn’t been able to do so in the NHL. Armia will help the Habs address their lack of strong bottom six options. He did quite well with the Winnipeg Jets.
Tatar was a part of the Pacioretty trade, as was Suzuki. I like Tatar a bit, as he put up solid numbers with the Detroit Red Wings. Suzuki’s obviously the crown jewel. I’m not sold he sticks at center, but whether he’s at center or wing, the guy makes things happen. It wouldn’t be surprising if Suzuki earns himself a tryout.
All stats are from Corsica and Natural Stat Trick.
Projected Lineup
How will the Montreal Canadiens look this season? Here’s a look at how their lineup should look. Roster projections are with the help of Daily Faceoff and Roster Resource. Additions are designated by italics.
Forwards
Tomas Tatar – Jonathan Drouin – Brendan Gallagher
Max Domi – Phillip Danault – Artturi Lehkonen
Paul Byron – Tomas Plekanec – Andrew Shaw
Charles Hudon – Matthew Peca – Joel Armia
Extra forward: Jacob de la Rosa
Depth forwards: Nicolas Deslauriers, Nikita Scherbak,
Byron and Shaw will both miss time to start the year. I’d expect Hudon and Armia to get promotions to the third line. Any number of their depth forwards could fill in on the fourth line. Their top line would be a pretty good one, except they have a left wing playing at center.
I’m more sold on their second line, which could be a nice bright spot for the Canadiens. Danault is a great example of one of the few times general manager Marc Bergevin won a trade. Lehkonen is a pretty outstanding shot generator but had a down year as far as finishing. Domi should fix that.
Outside of Hudon, Byron, and Armia, their bottom six isn’t anything to write home about. Suzuki likely won’t earn a full-time spot this season, but I’d expect him to make his NHL debut at some point, whether that’s towards the beginning of the season or the end.
Defensemen (with Weber)
Victor Mete – Shea Weber
Extra defensemen: Jordie Benn, Mike Rielly
Without Weber
Alzner – Petry
Mete – Benn/Rielly
Schlemko – Juulsen
Even with Weber, this is a pretty underwhelming defensive core. Their primary issue is the Canadiens have few guys who can move the puck effectively. That’s what happens when you trade P.K. Subban and Mikhail Sergachev. But I digress.
Mete is definitely someone to keep an eye on. I’ve been quite impressed with the young defenseman thus far. His defense is still a work in progress, but on offense, he’s impressive. I wouldn’t be surprised if he’s the Canadiens best defenseman this year, though that’s likely more due to those surrounding him.
Juulsen has done alright in a small sample size. But since he’s one of the few guys the Canadiens have on their blueline who can do things on offense, they’d be wise to play him regularly. Petry is the designated scapegoat, but he’s a pretty solid defenseman, albeit one miscast in his current role.
Goaltending
Carey Price
Expect the Habs to trade Niemi because Lindgren deserves to be in the NHL. The Canadiens will rely heavily on their goaltending. And I must admit, their goaltending might be capable of stealing games for the Habs. Now, whether or not that’s a good thing for a rebuilding team to have is a debate worth having.
Strengths
Prospects
Bergevin has had trouble finding centers. This isn’t surprising, as he traded for a left wing and moved him to center. But I’ll give him credit, Bergevin has done a darn good job of finding a nice trio of center prospects in Kotkaniemi, Suzuki, and Ryan Poehling.
Even if Suzuki doesn’t stick at center (his lack of size is an issue there), Poehling and Kotkaniemi are two of the best center prospects around. The present is pretty murky, but the future appears to be pretty bright. For once, the Canadiens aren’t relying on one guy to pan out. Now they have two (or three if Suzuki sticks).
(Maybe) Goaltending
Price had a horrible season, arguably his worst as an NHLer. But his resume suggests writing him off would be an unwise decision. Price battled injuries and a very ineffective defense last season. If he’s healthy and he bounces back, he’s quite capable of overcoming the latter.
Lindgren has posted nice numbers as well. Obviously, with Price in Montreal, his future isn’t as certain as it ought to be. But I think he’s ready to be a full-time NHLer and could help the Canadiens give Price the rest he needs to remain effective.
Weaknesses
Depth
The Montreal Canadiens aren’t a deep team at any position except goaltender and maybe left wing. Down the middle, Danault is by a wide margin their most effective center. Since he should be a third-line center or fringe second-line center on a good team, that’s alarming.
Plekanec should be a fourth-line option at this point. But the Canadiens’ lack of depth forces him into a third-line role. One injury will likely force his way into the top six. And when Mete and Petry are probably your two best defensemen, your defensive depth is shameful. The Canadiens defense was going to be dreadful even with Weber healthy. Without him, it’s abysmal.
Even their left wing depth, though impressive, isn’t necessarily a great thing. Hudon is going to struggle to find playing time even though he warrants it. He might have to move to the right side to get consistent minutes.
Top Line Skill
The Montreal Canadiens only have one true top line caliber forward (Gallagher). And even then, he’s a fringe first-liner (which is still extremely good, just not great). That’s not a recipe for success, especially for a team that lacks depth. Drouin’s not even a first-line caliber left wing, so naturally, he’s not a first-line caliber center. His offense is actually pretty good, as his zone entries are off the charts. But his two-way play is virtually non-existent. Tatar is better suited for a second or third line role.
Season Prediction
The Montreal Canadiens are a hard team to figure out. I could see them doing really well. But at the same time, I could see them doing extremely poorly. The latter is the more likely option, but at least the former is plausible. Let’s take a look at the best case and worst case scenarios.
Best case: The Canadiens are in the running for the top overall pick. They’d need a ton of luck, but if they win the draft lottery, Jack Hughes is posting some pretty incredible numbers and is generating a lot of warranted hype. At the very least, the Canadiens are guaranteed a high draft pick in what should be a deep draft.
But at the same time, Montreal sees their young players blossom. Tatar does well enough to rebuild his value and get flipped for a strong return at the trade deadline. Hudon and Lehkonen finally show their true potential and earn full-time top-six roles by the end of the year. Mete gives Canadiens fans a defenseman worth getting excited about. Price isn’t elite, but shows promise by bouncing back from a really bad year. Drouin finally resembles a top-line center.
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Worst case: Honestly, the worst thing that could happen to the Canadiens this year is that they’re a fringe playoff team. Not a playoff team, but one that’s just outside of the playoffs. That’s the absolute worst place for a team to be, but it would be especially bad for the Canadiens.
Fans and teams get joy from two things – rebuilding (high draft picks) and contending (the excitement of the playoffs and more money). The Canadiens would get neither of those two and it would just create more questions instead of providing answers (which is what Montreal really needs right now). This is why it might not be a good thing that the Habs goaltending could steal them quite a few games.