Ottawa Senators: How bad was the Erik Karlsson trade?

Following the trading of Erik Karlsson to the San Jose Sharks, many are criticizing Senators GM Pierre Dorion for severe incompetence. Is this an exaggeration, or was it really this disastrous?

Just in case you haven’t heard, former Ottawa Senators captain Erik Karlsson was traded to the San Jose Sharks for a rather underwhelming return, on Thursday. This trade was bad. No one can really deny that. However, is it really the disaster that some make it out to be?

Now, Karlsson has an almost hypnotic effect on Sens fans. With the history he’s had on the team, that makes a lot of sense. No matter what anyone says, Karlsson excels on both ends of the ice and he has defined the Senators for quite some time.

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During the 2017 playoffs, he recorded 18 points in 19 games, leading them to a conference final run that never should’ve happened. Like never, ever should’ve happened.

Beyond the talent Karlsson clearly displays, he is a mystical figure and sort of a part of the very essence of the Senators. As weird as this sounds, trading him is sort of like trading the team mascot. It just doesn’t make sense seeing him in other colors.

Separated from how good he truly is, exists an inherent rage that all Sens fans felt when he was dealt away. They weren’t just trading away a player, there were trading a pillar of the team. No matter what happens, Ottawa can no longer be the same team, for better or for worse.

Now, don’t misunderstand this, the trade was pretty bad. In fact, let’s talk a bit about why that.

Why the trade was terrible

This trade can’t be considered good for fairly evident reasons. In short, in exchange for the years of joy that Karlsson brought to Ottawa, the Senators received a group of players, none of whom scored more than 40 points last season, and some picks.

Whenever the centerpiece of a team is traded, your team will feel broken next season, no matter what. Even if your team wasn’t very good the previous season, nothing will be the same.

To take this risk and then not to receive any big name, leaves a figurative and literal hole in the Senators’ roster. Nothing would ever replace Karlsson, but Dorion didn’t even try.

Chris Tierney will help the Sens offensively, but he’s not going fix any problems. He scored 17 goals and 23 assists for 40 points last season. This is decent enough, but seeing his name on the other side of a Karlsson trade feels- wrong.

His CorsiFor percentage was lowly at 49.2 percent, giving him a relative CorsiFor percentage of -2.4 percent. While this may be, he’s not absolutely hopeless. Tierney’s a decent shot contributor, helping to create 79 opportunities per 60 minutes and is good at getting the puck into the offensive zone.

However, he is a below-average defensive player, only exiting the zone with possession 46 percent of the time. Tierney would be a decent pickup in most trades only 24 years old, but this is not like most trades.

Defenseman Dylan DeMelo didn’t score a goal last season, but he contributed 20 assists through 63 games. He finished just above Tierney in the Corsi department, at 50.2 percent raw and 0.2 percent relative.

Despite not scoring a single goal, some metrics suggest that DeMelo is actually really talented, offensively. He contributed 95 shots per 60 minutes, and he enters the offensive zone with possession 81 percent of the time. DeMelo moves the needle quite a bit on offense, even if his production doesn’t suggest it.

Defensively, however, he falls short. Excluding zone entry breakups, which he does an insane 94 times per minute, his defensive ability isn’t looking too great. He exits the defensive zone with possession, at a miserable 29 percent rate.

Apart from the players currently in the NHL are prospects Josh Norris and Rudolfs Balcers, who both probably have futures. Norris was the 19th overall pick in the 2017 draft. He scored 23 points in 37 games with the University of Michigan, last season.

Balcers was actually a 2015 5th round pick, but he had 48 points in 67 games, with the Sharks’ AHL affiliate San Jose Barracuda, last season. Along with Norris and Balcers, also came a 1st round 2020 pick, a 2nd round 2019 pick and a conditional 2021 pick.

Evidently, this was not a sufficient return for Erik Karlsson. However, it’s often unhelpful to look at a trade in black and white. Even if it was borderline terrible, there may be a tiny upside.

Why the trade wasn’t terrible… but still pretty bad

Last season, the Senators finished 219 goals, which was 25 below the league average. At the very least, even with Karlsson gone, Tierney will improve the offensive depth a bit. DeMelo, the goal-less offensive dynamo that he is, may have something to offer. Even if his point totals don’t reflect it, his advanced stats are average, he’s only 25, and he has offensive potential.

Norris and Balcers are good prospects to pick up. If they were involved in practically any other trade, they would be celebrated. Both of them will probably see NHL time soon enough.

Let’s be clear – none of this makes up, or comes close to making up for the loss.  But, it should be acknowledged that the Senators didn’t just chuck Karlsson off a cliff. And hey, Francis Perron is not the worst puzzle-filler to lose.

Apart from the players, the draft picks may be the most significant part of the trade. Much like the Habs and Pacioretty, the Senators have shed the microscopic remaining of their dignity, and have admitted that they are out of contention… not that they have been for a while. The 2017 run was the luckiest thing ever.

It is certainly disappointing that they have to wait until 2020 for a 1st round pick, but 2nd picks are still likely to make the NHL. In trading Karlsson, the Senators have come around to investing in their future.

The longer you wait around for the inevitable (trading Karlsson in this case) the worst your future will be. If the future picks pan out for Ottawa, maybe this won’t be such a terrible trade. For now, it’s bad, but it’s important to wait a few years before it’s terrible.

Conclusion

This trade, once again, was bad, and it will be a while before the Senators, or even the rest of the NHL get over it. If optimism can be maintained, this trade may help to get Ottawa back on track.

In the short term, it is definitely painful to look at. But, it needed to happen one way or another, and here it is. Ottawa should’ve gotten a lot more, but at least they got something.