New York Rangers preview: Henrik Lundqvist leads rebuild
The New York Rangers are heading into a much-needed rebuild led by aging franchise goaltender Henrik Lundqvist.
For the first time in goaltender Henrik Lundqvist’s career, the New York Rangers enter the season as a rebuilding team. Lundqvist had to play a completely meaningless game for the first time in his career. And for just the second time in his career, the Rangers missed the Stanley Cup Playoffs.
This is odd, as New York entered last season as a legitimate playoff contender. The Rangers were coming off a 102 point season. Last season, they only put up 77 points, their lowest total in a full 82 game season since the 2003-04 season. Ironically, that was their last season without Lundqvist.
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The Rangers rebuilding process got a huge start last season, as they moved Rick Nash, Ryan McDonagh, J.T. Miller, Nick Holden, and Michael Grabner at the trade deadline. But it’s not over yet. Depending on how the season goes, the Rangers appear likely to trade expiring free agents, much like last season. This time around, that list includes Mats Zuccarello, Adam McQuaid, and Kevin Hayes.
Though the Rangers likely aren’t going to be competitive, it’s for the best. A rebuild has been long overdue. Lundqvist has masked this issue for a while now. And now that it’s happening, the Rangers are relying on their franchise goaltender to remain their cornerstone.
Offseason Recap
Additions: D Frederik Claesson, D Adam McQuaid, G Dustin Tokarski, G Marek Mazanec
Departures: F Paul Carey, F David Desharnais
Re-signed: F Vladislav Namestnikov, F Ryan Spooner, F Boo Nieves, D John Gilmour, F Kevin Hayes, D Rob O’Gara, D Brady Skjei, F Jimmy Vesey, F Cody McLeod
The Rangers were pretty quiet this offseason, which isn’t a surprise. Trading for McQuaid might be a bit puzzling, but perhaps he’ll help their young defensemen. Also, don’t be surprised if they manage to trade him for something at the trade deadline.
It’s interesting that the Rangers didn’t trade any of their forwards. They seem to have too many of them. But that can be easily rectified.
Projected Lineup
Here’s how the New York Rangers will likely look this season.
Forwards
Chris Kreider – Mika Zibanejad – Pavel Buchnevich
Vladislav Namestnikov – Kevin Hayes – Mats Zuccarello
Lias Andersson – Filip Chytil – Jesper Fast
Jimmy Vesey – Ryan Spooner – Michael Lindqvist
Extra forward candidates: Cody McLeod, Boo Nieves
Kreider, Zibanejad, and Buchnevich put up strong underlying numbers together last season. That said, they shouldn’t be anchoring a team’s top line. Buchnevich, though, has a lot of potential in him.
Hayes was usually in a third-line role with everyone healthy. But with the Rangers likely looking to trade him, it wouldn’t be surprising if he’s the second-line pivot. Hayes has experience with Mats Zuccarello and, on paper, the duo should do well with Namestnikov or Spooner.
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Defensemen
Brady Skjei – Kevin Shattenkirk
Fredrik Claesson – Brendan Smith
Extra defenseman candidates: Rob O’Gara, John Gilmour, Adam McQuaid
A healthy Shattenkirk should help lead the top pairing. However, Skjei and Shattenkirk didn’t do too well last season. But still, this is the best chance of having a legitimate top pairing. Staal and Pionk played together a lot last season, so don’t be surprised if this remains a thing.
It gets a bit dicey after this, as the Rangers have a number of young defensemen who might not be ready. Some combination of Claesson, Smith, and McQuaid should form the third pairing. Though it wouldn’t surprise me if Gilmour or O’Gara earn a spot.
Goaltending
Henrik Lundqvist
Alexandar Georgiov
Marek Mazanec
Strengths
Goaltending
Even though Lundqvist is getting older, the New York Rangers biggest strength is still their goaltending. Though it’s more due to the rest of their roster being relatively weak than their goaltending being strong.
Lundqvist is still an above-average goalie despite his age. He’s the exception to the rule of Father Time getting the best of goalies after age 35. 26 goalies played at least 2,500 minutes during all situations. Lundqvist ranked 11th among them in goals saved above average. He’s no longer an elite goalie, but he’s still an extremely capable one.
Georgiov posted strong numbers in 10 games, but that’s a mighty small sample size. Mazanec will be there in case he’s not ready to be an NHL backup. If their goaltending is truly a strength, the Rangers might be able to surprise some people.
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Youth
The rebuild is underway on Broadway. Thus, the Rangers should ice a fairly young lineup. That’s a pretty significant change from the Alain Vigneault era. Andersson and Chytil were first-round picks from 2017. Both got a cup of coffee in the NHL last season and should start in the NHL this season.
Pionk got destroyed last season, but let’s be fair, he shouldn’t have been playing over 20 minutes a night. He should flourish in a more appropriate role, though it’s worth questioning if the Rangers can afford to put him in that role.
Weaknesses
Lacking Elite Talent
The New York Rangers lack elite talent, especially now that Lundqvist is no longer an elite goalie. That’s not a good sign for their rebuild, even though it just started a few months ago. Chytil has the potential to be a top line center, but his true ceiling is likely closer to a second line center.
Andersson’s ceiling resembles a top-six forward, but it’s also close to being that of a top-nine forward. 2018 first round pick Vitali Kravtsov has the potential to be elite, but he’s also a bit raw so it’s hard to project his true ceiling.
Defensive Depth
The Rangers don’t have great depth on offense, which is obviously an issue. However, their bigger concern should be on the blueline. The Rangers are going to ice one of the worst defenses in the NHL.
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Shattenkirk thrives when used in offensive situations. But the Rangers probably can’t utilize him in those situations as much as they’d like to. He’ll be forced into a shutdown role, which is one that isn’t ideal for someone like Shattenkirk.
Skjei had a rough 2017-18 season, but ought to bounce back. If he doesn’t, though, things could get very ugly. Staal and Pionk got caved in last season and it’s hard to see that changing if they’re going to have to be the second pairing.
Most of the Rangers young defensemen aren’t quite ready for the NHL yet. Their prospect pool is strong, but it would be better for the blue shirts to let them marinate, even if it means temporary pain.
Season Prediction
The New York Rangers are a rebuilding team. They’re probably going to finish closer to the bottom of the standings than the top of them. Even if Lundqvist has another outstanding season, the team around him is mediocre at best.
Let’s take a look at the three playoff surprises from last season. The New Jersey Devils got a Hart Trophy season from Taylor Hall. Nathan MacKinnon, Gabriel Landeskog, and Mikko Rantanen led the Colorado Avalanche. William Karlsson converted on 23.4 percent of his shots for the Vegas Golden Knights.
The New York Rangers simply don’t have that kind of talent. If they had an elite forward or two, a postseason appearance would be plausible (assuming Lundqvist had a great season, which I wouldn’t rule out). But since this is not the case, the Rangers are likely going to be contenders for the top overall pick in the 2019 draft. Which, by the way, isn’t a bad thing for the Rangers.
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This season will be more about growth on Broadway. Hopefully, guys like Buchnevich prove they are a part of the long-term solution. The Rangers are also hoping guys like Pionk, Andersson, and Chytil prove themselves. There will probably be some roster turnover, as I highly doubt Namestnikov, Spooner, and Hayes will all be on the roster come March.