St. Louis Blues preview: Vladimir Tarasenko leads rebuilt forward core
After melting down in 2017-18, Vladimir Tarasenko and the St. Louis Blues look ready to contend for a Stanley Cup.
The St. Louis Blues had a huge meltdown last season. They went 0-5-1 down the stretch, narrowly missing the Stanley Cup Playoffs as the Colorado Avalanche wound up passing them. Vladimir Tarasenko and company had a very long summer for all the wrong reasons.
Usually, the Blues are a very quiet team during the offseason. They usually don’t dive into free agency. But this summer, the Blues were extremely active. They overhauled their forward group, adding two centers and a playmaking wing.
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The Blues, on paper, went from being a team that relied heavily on their top forward line to one that could have three very good ones. Though they still have a huge, glaring weakness, they are unquestionably a better team as the 2018-19 season begins.
Led by Tarasenko and an underrated defense, the Blues have done a lot to try to ensure another meltdown doesn’t happen. Despite their meltdown, they actually overperformed a little bit last season. So even if the Blues experience some regression, their additions should help alleviate them.
Offseason Recap
Additions: F Ryan O’Reilly, F Tyler Bozak, F David Perron, G Chad Johnson, F Patrick Maroon, F Jordan Nolan
Departures: G Carter Hutton, F Beau Bennett, F Kyle Brodziak, F Scottie Upshall, F Tage Thompson, F Patrik Berglund, F Vladimir Sobotka
The biggest move of the Blues summer netted them a familiar foe in O’Reilly. Despite his struggles in Buffalo, he’s still one of the best two-way centers in the NHL. O’Reilly should help solidify the Blues center depth. The addition of Bozak should as well. Though he requires sheltered minutes, he can certainly produce in the right situations.
Their biggest loss was Hutton. Usually, that’s not a bad thing for a team to lose their backup goalie. However, Hutton was extremely reliable for them last season. Johnson is a pretty clear downgrade there.
Projected Lineup
The St. Louis Blues have an underrated skater group. Arguably one of the better ones in the league, especially if you’re one who thinks fourth lines and third pairings are a bit overrated.
Forwards
Patrick Maroon – Ryan O’Reilly – Vladimir Tarasenko
Jaden Schwartz – Brayden Schenn – David Perron
Robby Fabbri – Tyler Bozak – Alex Steen
Ivan Barbashev – Robert Thomas – Dmitrij Jaskin
Extra forward: Samuel Blais
On the rise: Jordan Kyrou, Klim Kostin
It appears the Blues are going to break up their top line trio from last year, which featured Tarasenko, Schwartz, and Schenn. But it’s a good thing because now, the Blues have the talent necessary to have three really good forward lines.
O’Reilly has struggled on offense, especially last season. He had the 22nd-worst five-on-five points per hour rate among all forwards with at least 800 minutes played. However, this was partially related to his teammates. Maroon and Tarasenko should be significant upgrades.
Replacing Tarasenko will be Perron, who’s a pretty reliable and steady forward. He’s not outstanding, but if he’s healthy, you can pencil him in for at least 40 points. Perron is an underrated passer and playmaker, which should complement the skills of Schwartz and Schenn.
Fabbri’s injured (shocker, I know) but it doesn’t seem to be significant. He’s an extremely talented forward who could make that third line a very good one. Steen is declining, but in a sheltered role, I think he could still be a productive player.
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Defensemen
Joel Edmundson – Alex Pietrangelo
Jay Bouwmeester – Robert Bortuzzo
Extra defenseman: Jordan Schmaltz
The best thing that happened to the Blues last season was an injury to Bouwmeester. This opened up opportunities for Edmundson and Dunn, who flourished in larger roles. Edmundson is a mobile defenseman who should complement Pietrangelo well. Dunn and Parayko were very solid together last year as well.
Goaltending
Chad Johnson
The Blues goaltending is going to determine how far they go. They have the skater talent to contend, but their goaltending was a huge issue last season.
Strengths
The Right Side
Edmundson and Dunn are perfectly capable top four defensemen. But the Blues real strength lies in the right side of their blueline. Pietrangelo and Parayko stand out as top pairing caliber defensemen.
The former gets more credit. Pietrangelo has been a recent staple on Team Canada internationally. He put up a career-high 15 goals and 54 points last season. Without Bouwmeester, he broke even as far as shot attempts. And the Blues have consistently outscored their opponents with him on the ice.
Parayko might be even better than Pietrangelo. Only Dunn posted better relative shot attempt numbers than him last season among Blues defensemen (minimum 1,000 minutes). Poor goaltending and bad puck luck caused him to have a negative relative goals for percentage.
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Down The Middle
Last year, the Blues didn’t have very good center depth. Especially after they traded Paul Stastny to the Winnipeg Jets. The Blues addressed this during the summer, adding O’Reilly and Bozak to an already talented group.
Additionally, they refused to part ways with top prospect Robert Thomas, who should have a full-time role this season. He’s a bit of an odd fit as a fourth line center, but it could let the Blues ice four skilled lines. So even though the Blues lost Stastny and Brodziak, they’re in darn good shape down the middle.
Weaknesses
Special Teams
The St. Louis Blues were below average on both ends of special teams last season. They ranked 18th while shorthanded (79.65 percent) and 30th on the power play (15.45 percent). Adding O’Reilly should help the former. Meanwhile, adding Bozak and Perron should help the latter. But still, the Blues have some questions to answer on both ends of special teams.
Goaltending
Alright, it’s time to address the pink elephant in the room that Blues fans don’t want to talk about – the goaltending. Jake Allen was a mess last season, posting just a .906 save percentage. The Blues felt comfortable having him as their number one goalie when they traded Brian Elliott after Allen posted a .920 save percentage in 47 games in 2015-16. However, he has seen a significant decline in each of the past two seasons.
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During all situations, Allen and new backup goalie Chad Johnson were both in the bottom five as far as goals saved above average (minimum 1,000 minutes). The duo had a combined -34.24 GSAA, which is worth quite a few wins.
If you’re looking for some optimism, at least most of Allen’s struggles came while shorthanded, where he was the second-worst goalie. Last season, the Blues season was ended due to horrible goaltending (among other things). They’ll need Allen and Johnson to be much better.
Season Prediction
The St. Louis Blues have a darn good team on paper. Their forward group ranks in the top 10 and their blueline ranks in the top seven. That should be enough to be a serious Stanley Cup contender, right?
Wrong. Their goaltending is going to determine just how far the Blues go this season. They have the talent up front to be a darkhorse contender for the Stanley Cup. The Blues could easily be this year’s version of the Washington Capitals, winning their first title in franchise history.
Even in what should be an extremely competitive Central Division, St. Louis has what it takes to be one of the top three teams in the division. Obviously, the Nashville Predators and the Winnipeg Jets are the two favorites to win the Central. They’ll likely finish first and second. But that third place spot is wide open. With even league-average goaltending, the Blues could be the team that grabs that spot.
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While they did lose some depth in the O’Reilly trade, I think they’ve done more than enough to make up for it. The Blues are one of those teams who will need a few things to go right to win a Stanley Cup. But there are not too many teams who can say that.