Ottawa Senators: Top 10 Prospects Entering 2018

The Ottawa Senators are a team that is… rebuilding? Here are the prospects who can help with that right now.

The Ottawa Senators are a, well, Ottawa fans know the truth. The organization is a tire fire, the best tire fire in Ontario. There hasn’t been a tire fire this good since Krusty the Clown created Springfield’s Tire Fire. The Senators traded Erik Karlsson and Mike Hoffman for not a lot. The centerpiece of the Karlsson deal, Josh Norris, doesn’t even make this list. Neither does Andrew Sturtz.

The Senators do have some prospects, however. These prospects are ranked based on three equal factors: NHL readiness, ceiling, and the likelihood they play consistent minutes with the Ottawa Senators in the near future. To qualify, the prospect must not have played 25 NHL games (disqualifying Thomas Chabot).

Let’s start with the goaltenders.

1. Filip Gustavsson [20] (2-55, 2016)

Stats (Lulea HF, SHL): 22 gp, 2.07 GAA, .918 SV%, 3 SO (3 pgp, 2.91 GAA, .895 SV%, ); 7 gp, 1.71 GAA, .925 SV%. Lulea HF J20, SuperElit; 7 gp, 3.01 GAA, .912 SV%. Belleville Senators, AHL

Filip Gustavsson was one of the best goaltenders in the Swedish Hockey League at the age of 20. That’s incredible. It’s also one of the reasons the Ottawa Senators took him as a main part of the Derick Brassard trade. He’s now their best goaltending prospect, and with an aging battery and a rebuild, he’s the perfect candidate to be the Senators next franchise netminder. He’ll need to play in the AHL full-time first, but right now, it’s all systems go for Gustavsson to Ottawa.

[Gustavsson is] the perfect candidate to be the Senators next franchise netminder

Gustavsson was tied for fourth in save percentage in the SHL last season. He was fifth in goals-against average and tied for fifth in shutouts, with three. In the postseason, Gustavsson didn’t have the same worth to Lulea, but he did fine considering his age. Gustavsson also played some games in the SuperElit but proved far too good for that league pretty quickly. A 1.71 GAA and .925 save percentage are definite graduation material.

It’ll be interesting to see what Gustavsson can do in a full AHL season. In just seven games, Gustavsson produced a .912 save percentage, even behind a lesser defense. With Chabot going up and down throughout the season with Ben Harpur and not much beyond them, Belleville didn’t give Gustavsson a ton to work with. Still, with a more consistent defense with some new members, maybe Gustavsson can do even better and impress even more.

2. Marcus Hogberg [23] (3-78, 2013)

Stats (Belleville Senators, AHL): 18 gp, 3.27 GAA, .899 SV%; 16 gp, 3.10 GAA, .915 SV%. Brampton Beast, ECHL

Marcus Hogberg was once the future of the Ottawa Senators’ net, but he’s struggled in the AHL so far and had to go down to the ECHL to find success. He’ll have less pressure on him in the coming seasons with Gustavsson ahead of him, but Gustavsson will also be taking up a full-time AHL spot, at least for the next year. With just a .899 save percentage in the AHL and a .915 save percentage in the ECHL, Hogberg should be better.

if he becomes an NHL-level backup now, that’s a success

At this point, he’s not as young as the Ottawa Senators would perhaps like. Hogberg has had multiple seasons at the professional level and is still struggling to transition. Again, the defense was inconsistent, but Gustavsson dealt with it. Hogberg should have been able to as well. Perhaps his ceiling has changed, or he just hasn’t reached his potential as much as would have been hoped. Either way, if he becomes an NHL-level backup now, that’s a success.

It’ll be interesting to see where Hogberg goes from here. Whether he’s Gustavsson’s backup in the AHL or he gets the full-time starting job in the ECHL. The Ottawa Senators signed veteran AHL goaltender Mike McKenna this season. That’s likely bad news for Hogberg, who will need to beat out a goaltender who played in the Calder Cup Final for a job.

9. Jacob Bernard-Docker, D [18] (1-26, 2018)

Stats (Okotoks Oilers, AJHL): 49 gp, 20 g, 21 a, 41 p, 7 PPG (7 A), 4 SHG (1 A), 2 GWG, .8 pts/g (15 pgp, 7 g, 7 a, 14 p, 3 PPG (3 A), 1 SHA, .9 pts/g).

One of the best offensive defensemen to pass through the AJHL, Jacob Bernard-Docker was a dominant goal scorer. 20 goals from a defenseman in any league is a rare feat, which might explain why Bernard-Docker was first amongst defensemen in the AJHL in goals and tied for 39th amongst all scorers. He scored seven goals on the power play and seven shorthanded. Two were game-winners. It shouldn’t be a surprise that Bernard-Docker dominated a lower-end CHL league, and AJHL pros are harder to come by than those from the OHL, WHL, or QMJHL.

One of the best offensive defensemen to pass through the AJHL, Jacob Bernard-Docker was a dominant goal scorer

Bernard-Docker was taken as a late-first round pick, though he was projected to be available later. He’s not been truly tested by players at his level yet, so take his AJHL numbers with a grain of salt. He will get that necessary test this season, joining Tychonick at the University of North Dakota. That will be a team to watch this season for the fans of the Ottawa Senators, maybe the team to watch.

Bernard-Docker will have a lot higher expectations moving forward than Tychonick. Without Karlsson, the Senators will need multiple franchise defensemen to replace what is one of, quite simply, the greatest defensemen. Bernard-Docker is expected to factor heavily into that, along with the likes of Chabot. Bernard-Docker will need to step up his game every season and get ready for the NHL soon.

8. Alex Formenton, LW [18] (2-47, 2017)

Stats (London Knights, OHL): 48 gp, 29 g, 19 a, 48 p, 7 PPG (6 A), 3 SHG (1 A), 6 GWG, 175 SOG, 1 pt/g (4 pgp, 5 g, 2 a, 7 p, 3 PPG (1 A), 1 SHG, 21 SOG, 1.75 pts/g); 2 gp, 0 g, 0 a, 0 p. Belleville Senators, AHL; 1 gp, 0 g, 0 a, 0 p. Ottawa Senators, NHL

Alex Formenton was a top 50 pick in last year’s draft and is just barely 19 years old. He was excellent in a shortened regular season, scoring 48 points in 48 games, and is a great goal scorer. He was better than a goal-per-game in the postseason (contributing to his best in the league point-per-game pace) and was good at shot production (3.65 shots per game in the regular season, 5.25 in the postseason). Formenton was a threat to score on both the power play and while shorthanded, good news for his ability to transition to the pro game effectively.

Formenton has impressed in pre-season camp so far this season, wowing with his speed and his goal-scoring combination

Formenton has impressed in pre-season camp so far this season, wowing with his speed and his goal-scoring combination. That could be a dangerous skill set down the road, as Connor McDavid has demonstrated in his NHL career.

Guy Boucher has already likened Formenton to the aforementioned best player in the world, at least in terms of speed. He’ll try and make the Ottawa Senators roster out of camp, but most likely will head back to the OHL for another (hopefully healthier) season. A full year in the OHL with the paces he set for himself would be incredibly impressive and could net him top 10 rankings across the board.

Formenton has already played professional games in both the AHL and NHL. He’ll likely get a chance to play for the Ottawa Senators full time sooner rather than later and has a chance to prove himself more NHL ready than he currently is in the OHL this season. His NHL ceiling is hard to determine, but with his talents, it would not be hard to see him as a middle-six forward.

7. Filip Chlapik, C [21] (2-48, 2015)

Stats (Belleville Senators, AHL); 52 gp, 11 g, 21 a, 32 p, 3 PPG (9 A), 2 GWG, 1 ENG, 96 SOG, .62 pts/g; 20 gp, 1 g, 3 a, 4 p. Ottawa Senators, NHL

Filip Chlapik was a mid-second round pick in 2015, one that is falling down this list of prospects. He scored just 11 goals in 52 AHL games this past season, adding 21 assists for 32 points. That’s still a respectable amount, even if it means Chlapik is more likely to be a third-line center than approaching anything near the top six. Chapik was good on the power play, scoring 12 points, and found two game-winning goals. He was also decent in terms of shot production but was not great.

He’s got the ability to make smart, creative plays for the other forwards to score on

There are other centers in the Ottawa Senators’ system who should be top-six players. Chlapik doesn’t have that pressure and shouldn’t. He’s a playmaker first, goal scorer very distant second. He’s got the ability to make smart, creative plays for the other forwards to score on. Whether that means he gets the third-line role eventually or takes on the wing is up to Ottawa’s management, but he could do either well. Chlapik did decently in 20 games, but again, showed bottom-six numbers. Four points in 20 games are better from a fourth-line center than anything else, but he can improve in the next few seasons.

Chlapik doesn’t have great faceoff numbers and didn’t play a ton of minutes in his 20 NHL games, averaging 10:04. He won the turnover battle, though, and scored an assist on the power play. He got just 21 shots in 20 games, even with a hefty offensive zone start rate. Chlapik’s ceiling still remains in the NHL, but every year he gets farther from that ceiling. He needs to start making a more noticeable impact at the AHL level to earn another chance in the NHL.

6. Christian Wolanin, D [23] (4-107, 2015)

Stats (University of North Dakota, NCAA): 40 gp, 12 g, 23 a, 35 p, 8 PPG, .88 pts/g; 10 gp, 1 g, 2 a, 3 p. Ottawa Senators, NHL

Making a more noticeable impact at the NHL level, but having a hard to determine NHL ceiling, Christian Wolanin takes a good position on this list. He was tied for fifth amongst NCAA defensemen in scoring, was second in goals, tied for 12th in assists, and 11th in points per game. Though he did all these things at 23, one of the older players in the NCAA, and in his junior year. Wolanin has shown some offensive promise in the past, and three points in ten games is decent. But he’s nowhere near top-pairing material.

Wolanin could end up quarterbacking the first unit power play

Wolanin was excellent on the power play, but it will be hard to tell how much time he can get on the Ottawa Senators’ power play in the future. They’ll have to fit Chabot and Cody Ceci on the power play somehow, but Wolanin could end up quarterbacking the first unit. He’ll be a bottom-six defenseman most likely, but he’ll get plenty of ice time when combined with the power play and a good chance to make an impact from an offensive perspective.

Wolanin is NHL ready and he’s very likely to play consistently with the Ottawa Senators this season. His ceiling is what really puts a hamper on his standing in this listing.

5. Rudolfs Balcers, LW [21] (5-142, 2015)

Stats (San Jose Barracuda, AHL): 67 gp, 23 g, 25 a, 48 p, 8 PPG (8 A), 5 GWG, 1 ENG, 165 SOG, .72 pts/g (4 pgp, 2 g, 2 a, 4 p, 1 PPA, 1 GWG, 12 SOG, 1 pt/g).

Rudolfs Balcers might be the best part of the Karlsson return, at least right now. He’s currently better than Norris, more NHL ready, and made a significant impact at the pro level already, as the leading scorer of the San Jose Barracuda, the San Jose Sharks’ AHL affiliate. With 48 points and 23 goals in the AHL, Balcers had a very impressive season. He’s somebody who could play in the NHL this season and will be doing his best to impress in Belleville.

He’s already a player likely to make an impact on the third line as a depth scorer. That could change as he continues to grow as a player, and at 21, he’s still relatively young. To make a splash at his age with the Senators would be something, considering the now lack of talent around him. If he does do well, it would not be surprising to see Balcers get up to the Senators’ top six this season.

His ceiling is not as high as the other prospects ahead of him, which is why Balcers is so low on this list. But he’s more NHL ready and has a higher probability of making the Ottawa Senators roster eventually. Even while he will start in Belleville first, that might be better for Balcers. Less pressure in a league he’s already dominated. He’ll also be seen as one of the main candidates for the first callup. The point is, Balcers has an NHL future. Whether that future is sooner or later depends on how the Senators view Balcers, and that should be highly.

4. Drake Batherson, C [20] (4-121, 2017)

Stats (Cape Breton Screaming Eagles/Blainville-Boisbriand Armada, QMJHL): 51 gp, 29 g, 48 a, 77 p, 12 PPG (18 A), 2 SHG (1 A), 5 GWG, 166 SOG, 54.2 FO%, 1.51 pts/g (22 pgp, 13 g, 20 a, 33 p, 3 PPG (7 A), 1 GWG, 77 SOG, 50.4 FO%, 1.5 pts/g).

One of the best players in the QMJHL, but doing so in a very injury-plagued season, while showing what he can truly do in the playoffs, Drake Batherson has already exceeded expectations. As a fourth-round pick just a year ago, it was unexpected for Batherson to become a difference maker in a top Canadian junior league.

But for the Blainville-Boisbriand Armada, that’s exactly what Batherson was. He was first in playoff scoring, tied for third in goals, first in assists, and first in points per game. This must be noted, however: Batherson was an overager when drafted, eligible for his second draft.

Batherson was good on both the power play and while shorthanded. He’s an excellent goal scorer and somebody who should up both at the Canadian junior and international levels. Batherson will get his professional start in the AHL but should be able to work his way up. He’ll try and set the AHL ablaze with what should be a better Belleville team, and not having to be around the team in Kanata could be a good thing for the developing center.

It’s hard to tell his ceiling, as Batherson is still developing. But right now, it would not be unexpected for Batherson to become a middle-six center. The Ottawa Senators have prospects down the middle like Logan Brown and Colin White, but Brady Tkachuk, their best forward for the future, is a winger. With a prominent youth movement, the Senators need as much forward help as they can get. Batherson might be a part of the solution.

3. Logan Brown, C [20] (1-11, 2016)

Stats (Windsor Spitfires/Kitchener Rangers, OHL): 32 gp, 22 g, 26 a, 48 p, 4 PPG (10 A), 116 SOG, 47.3 FO%, 1.5 pts/g (19 pgp, 5 g, 22 a, 27 p, 1 PPG (5 A), 1 GWG, 53 SOG, 51 FO%, 1.42 pts/g); 4 gp, 0 g, 1 a, 1 p. Ottawa Senators, NHL

Logan Brown was the biggest name in the large group the Ottawa Senators cut recently. Brown will report to the Belleville Senators, where he will play his first full professional season. The 6’6″ center has been ready for the professional transition for a while, and an incredibly short regular season and postseason in the OHL proved that.

Brown was tied for eighth in points per game. He was first in assists, fifth in scoring, and tied for eighth in points per game in the postseason. While Brown was decent on the power play, that wasn’t where he made his biggest impact. Brown was an even-strength scorer, perhaps more impressive.

He was also solid at shot generation (3.63 shots per game in the regular season, 2.79 shots per game in the postseason). Brown has the tools to be a top-six center, somebody who can score goals, run the game, and be a huge factor in the Ottawa Senators’ roster. However, his prolonged development and the fact that he couldn’t make the team this year are very troubling. Brown could use some professional seasoning in the AHL, however, and if he impresses he’ll be back up soon.

He has a good skill set for his size, and whether he’s playing as a center for the future of the Ottawa Senators or playing as a power-forward wing like Brady Tkachuk, the Senators should get something of worth out of Brown. The problem is, it just isn’t likely a first liner.

2. Colin White, C [21] (1-21, 2015)

Stats (Belleville Senators, AHL): 47 gp, 11 g, 16 a, 27 p, 2 PPG (7 A), 2 SHG, 1 ENG, 92 SOG, .57 pts/g; 21 gp, 2 g, 4 a, 6 p. Ottawa Senators, NHL

Colin White had six points in 21 NHL games last season. In the AHL, he had 27 in 47 games. He, like Brown, has a more limited ceiling than the Ottawa Senators initially hoped. He’ll likely settle into a role as a middle-six center, one who’s a better playmaker than goal scorer.

He was good shorthanded in the AHL this past season and had decent shot metrics, which means he could settle into a role as a two-way, possession-driving center. Surrounding him with talented wingers down the road could make him into a good player.

It seems like White is NHL ready, and has made the team through several cuts already. Even if he doesn’t end up as a center this year, playing on the second or third line as a wing, NHL experience is NHL experience. He’ll likely be in for a guaranteed position with the Ottawa Senators, which drives up his position on this list. Again, he doesn’t seem like he has the greatest ceiling, but he’s got the other two categories locked up.

1. Brady Tkachuk, LW [18] (1-4, 2018)

Stats (Boston University, NCAA): 40 gp, 8 g, 23 a, 31 p, 3 PPG, 1 SHG.

Brady Tkachuk was drafted fourth overall in the 2018 entry draft, higher than most draft experts had him by the time the draft rolled around. Still, the Ottawa Senators believe in their young winger, who will look to make an impact at the NHL level in year one. He was a good player in the NCAA this past season, tied for third amongst players under 19 in scoring, sixth in goals, fifth in points per game, and he was fourth in assists.

Tkachuk is a gritty power forward who has a ton of size and should bring significant goal-scoring prowess but doesn’t move that well. Still, he can deliver a hit when he needs to, play some defense, and be a productive member of an offense. He’ll get time on the power play and the first line this season, and that should help shape him moving forward.

He has top-six potential (though the question is whether his potential is as high as some of the players drafted after him). He looks to have already locked up a spot with the Ottawa Senators this season. Tkachuk is the best prospect on this list in all three categories. He’s easily number one here, but in a top 100 NHL ranking, it’s hard to see whether he would do that well.