Tampa Bay Lightning preview: Nikita Kucherov leads Stanley Cup hopefuls
Could this be the season everything falls into place for the Tampa Bay Lightning?
The Tampa Bay Lightning have been one of the most consistently successful teams of the past five seasons. While they have no championships to show for it, the Bolts have been to four of the past five Eastern Conference Finals, winning one of them. The Lightning have lost to the eventual Stanley Cup champions three times, each time taking them to seven games.
So while the Bolts haven’t won a Stanley Cup in the past five seasons, they’re a darn good bet to be one of the few teams contending for it. All you can do to win a title is put together the best darn team you can and hope you’re lucky enough to win. The Lightning have done the first part, clearly.
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Even with all the moves the Toronto Maple Leafs have made to improve their team over the years, the Bolts are still the class of the Atlantic Division. They also might be the only Eastern Conference team without any glaring weaknesses, which leaves them with very few things that could cost them a Stanley Cup.
The Lightning, as usual, are going to be up against the salary cap this season. And though their Stanley Cup window is open, it’s starting to close. This is a critical season for the Lightning. They’ve done their homework, putting together arguably the deepest roster in the NHL. Now it’s time for them to have things go their way.
Offseason Recap
Additions: D Cameron Gaunce, F Andy Andreoff
The Lightning were busy in rumors this offseason, as they nearly traded for Erik Karlsson. But let’s be fair. The Lightning didn’t have any glaring weaknesses going into this offseason. And most of their summer was spent taking care of their own. When you have the organizational depth the Lightning have, you don’t need to spend money in free agency.
Stats courtesy of Corsica, Natural Stat Trick, and All Three Zones
Projected Lineup
How will the Tampa Bay Lightning look this season? They’ll have one heck of a roster.
Forwards
Ondrej Palat – Brayden Point – Nikita Kucherov
Yanni Gourde – Steven Stamkos – J.T. Miller
Alex Killorn – Anthony Cirelli – Tyler Johnson
Adam Erne – Cedric Paquette – Cory Conacher
Extra forward: Danick Martel
Injured: Ryan Callahan
Last season, Miller, Stamkos, and Kucherov formed a pretty impressive trio. However, I’ve seen the Lightning split them up during the preseason. I think it would be for the best if they did so. The Lightning can always go back to that trio if things don’t work out.
Palat is a great possession player who is strong in transition. Point is on the verge of being a true star after an amazing season. And obviously, Kucherov is Kucherov. One of the best darn players in the NHL.
Gourde is the latest Bolts player to come from out of nowhere to produce. He’s got a strong two-way game and is very confident in transition. Stamkos is one of the best shooters in the NHL and has developed into an excellent two-way player as well. His work in transition is underrated and he’s one of the best in the league at zone entries.
Killorn would be a strong fit on the second line, but I think he’d make the third line even better. He’d provide a two-way player who can help Johnson out in transition. Johnson, by the way, is great at zone entries. Cirelli has shown a lot of promise and should be able to handle a top nine role.
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Defensemen
Victor Hedman – Anton Stralman
Braydon Coburn – Mikhail Sergachev
Extra defenseman: Slater Koekkoek
Hedman is the reigning Norris Trophy winner. And deservedly so. Hedman has always done his best work with Stralman by his side. He’s a perfect complementary defenseman. Hopefully, the Lightning realize this and refuse to separate the duo.
Now, I think Sergachev should be getting second pairing minutes. But I’ve seen Girardi get too many chances and he does have experience playing with McDonagh. Basically, I’ll believe Sergachev gets the role he warrants when I see it. There is some value in having Sergachev on the third pairing. A Girardi and Coburn pairing would be awful.
Goaltenders
Strengths
Forward Depth
The Tampa Bay Lightning’s forward depth is, frankly, unfair. Of the 415 forwards to play at least 300 minutes at five-on-five last season, the Bolts had 10 (though they’re bringing back nine) in the top 140 in points per hour, including six in the top 100 and five in the top 40. That’s pretty ridiculous.
No matter what, the Bolts are going to have a ton of options in their top nine. The regular season will be all about finding the trios that best work together. Their fourth line will be a bit of an issue, but it shouldn’t be awful.
The Lightning have depth as well. Guys like Mitchell Stephens, Daniel Marrik, Gabriel Dumont, and Andreoff should be able to contribute if called upon.
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Defensive Depth
Not only do the Lightning have an elite forward core, their defense is pretty darn great too. Obviously, Hedman’s one of the best defensemen in the league. Stralman makes whoever he plays with better. McDonagh should be an amazing fit in their system after having a full offseason to adjust. He was a tad bit rough after the trade deadline, but that’s understandable.
Sergachev is the wild card. I think he has the talent to make the Lightning even better. But as I said earlier, Girardi has found the cheat code for infinite lives. Coaches like him for some reason and it’s beyond me why they do.
Weaknesses
Penalty Kill
The Tampa Bay Lightning’s biggest weakness is probably their penalty kill. Last season, they only killed 75.78 percent of their penalties, the fifth-lowest mark in the league. The Lightning allowed the fifth-most shots on goal per hour while shorthanded last season, so that’s something head coach Jon Cooper is going to have to focus on.
Complicating the issue is the Lightning’s penchant for committing penalties. They allowed the 10th-most power plays in the league. Having a subpar penalty kill and having to use it repeatedly is a recipe for disaster.
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Goaltending
Now, the Tampa Bay Lightning’s goaltending is fine. However, I think it’s appropriate to discuss it here. Andrei Vasilevskiy is a great goalie, but he has never posted a positive delta save percentage (actual save percentage minus expected save percentage). Now, he also had the second-highest expected save percentage in the NHL last season (minimum 2,000 minutes during all situations). But still, Vasilevskiy looks great because of his blueline.
I’m more concerned about their backup goalie situation. Vasilevskiy got tired down the stretch last season, as he had a save percentage of just a shade over .900 after the All-Star break. I’m not sold that Louis Domingue is a legitimate NHL backup. Though I think their goaltending is good enough to win, it’s clearly not the strength that everyone thinks it is.
Season Prediction
It’s a pretty safe bet that the Tampa Bay Lightning are going to make the playoffs. I have them as the most likely team to do so, largely because of their past track record of success. Chances are, the Lightning are going to be in the Eastern Conference Final too. Even in a tough Atlantic Division that should be a bloodbath, I think they have the advantage over every team.
The Pittsburgh Penguins get the slight nod over them as my Stanley Cup favorites, largely because having Sidney Crosby and Evgeni Malkin on the same team should be illegal. But the Lightning aren’t that far behind.
Another reason the Bolts aren’t above the Penguins as my Stanley Cup favorites is, simply, the Atlantic Division is going to be tougher than the Metropolitan Division. Ergo, the best team in the Metro is more likely to advance to the Stanley Cup Final than the best team in the Atlantic.
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You can look at the Lightning in one of two ways. Either you see them as chokers who can’t get it done in the playoffs against the eventual Stanley Cup champions or you see them as an extremely good team who didn’t get things to go their way when they needed them to. I choose to see them as the latter.