Pittsburgh Penguins versus Winnipeg Jets could be a Stanley Cup preview

Friday’s matchup between the Pittsburgh Penguins and Winnipeg Jets could be a sign of what’s to come in June.

Back in September, I called for the Pittsburgh Penguins and Winnipeg Jets to meet in the 2019 Stanley Cup Final. At the halfway point of the season, these two teams will meet tonight at PPG Paints Arena in Pittsburgh. Let’s take a look at how the season has gone for these squads and the chances of them facing off this spring.

Pittsburgh is in the midst of a seven-game win streak. Goaltenders Matt Murray and Casey DeSmith have been the main catalysts for this streak. Sidney Crosby has five straight multi-point efforts. Evgeni Malkin is showing encouraging signs of ending his two-month slump. Kris Letang is having a career year and is somehow an All-Star Game snub.

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Jake Guentzel has become a consistent even-strength scorer and earned a new contract. Dominik Simon has provided adequate secondary scoring. Zach Aston-Reese’s play has improved of late and his confidence is growing.

Despite their recent surge, Pittsburgh has struggled in some areas. The Phil Kessel and Derick Brassard combo has not worked. With these two on the ice together, Pittsburgh controls only 37% of the shot share and generates 38% of the scoring chances.

The Jack Johnson signing has gone as expected, as Johnson is having his worst possession season since 2013. Outside of Letang, the Penguins defense core has combined to score seven goals. That is not good enough.

According to Natural Stat Trick, the Penguins are an average possession team, as they generate 49.7% of the even-strength shot attempts. The return of Justin Schultz next month should boost both of those totals.

In the great white north, the Jets are flying. They sit atop the Central Division and are on pace for 103 points. Finnish sensation Patrik Laine’s 24 goals are the fourth most in the NHL. Mark Scheifele and Blake Wheeler are elite playmakers and are underrated across the league.

Dustin Byfuglien is out tonight, but the rest of their blue-line is capable of carrying the load. Per Quant Hockey, the Jets are the second youngest team in the league. If they they can retain their star-players they will be a powerhouse for years to come. The Jets are the 10th best possession team in the league, as they control 50.9% of the even-strength shot share.

Connor Hellebuyck has had an inconsistent season in net. Top prospect Jack Roslovic has only scored two goals this season. Blake Wheeler has 5 even-strength goals. Outside of that, the Jets are having a fantastic season.

According to The Athletic, the Penguins and Jets both have an 8% chance of winning the Stanley Cup this season. According to this model, only the Toronto Maple Leafs and Tampa Bay Lightning have a better chance of winning it all. The Jets are the odds-on favorite to be the Western Conference representative in the Final, while the Penguins are third-most likely team to represent the Eastern Conference.

Something tells me the rosters we see tonight will be slightly different when April rolls around. Both teams are in “win-now” mode and will likely improve their rosters. Mike Sullivan and Paul Maurice are two of the best tacticians in amongst the NHL coaching ranks.

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Both teams head into tonight’s contest with a +23 goal differential. There is high-end talent and above-average depth players on both rosters. It could be a barn-burner at the “paint can” tonight. Let’s hope we can say the same thing and still be watching the Penguins and Jets battle it out in May and June.

Thanks for reading!

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