Washington Capitals: 3 Potential Trade Deadline Targets

The Washington Capitals are struggling right now, just as they were at this time last season. Here are three potential trade targets that could turn things around.

With the trade deadline fast approaching, time is running out for the Washington Capitals. The defending Stanley Cup champions have lost eight of their last nine games, and while they are still in a playoff spot, run the risk of having to settle for a lower seed and tougher first-round matchup.

General Manager Brian MacLellan said on Monday that he expects the Capitals to be active in trade talks approaching the deadline.

This has become a bit of a pattern for the Washington GM since he took over from George McPhee in 2014. He has made at least one trade deadline acquisition each year since he took over, and has normally targeted depth defensemen such as Tim Gleason, Mike Weber, and Kevin Shattenkirk.

Last season, with expectations relatively low for the Caps, the team was puttering on a bit as the trade deadline neared. On February 19, 2018, they had gone 6-5-4 in their previous fifteen games, and their grasp on the top spot of the Metro Division was loosening.

On that day, MacLellan pulled off one of the great under-the-radar trades in franchise history, acquiring Michal Kempny from the Chicago Blackhawks for a 3rd round pick. The Caps proceeded to win 14 of their final 22 games before going on that glorious Stanley Cup run.

What was it about Kempny that made him such a difference-maker for Washington? A brief look at his advanced stats tells the story: prior to the trade, although he had struggled to remain in the lineup, his High Danger Shot Attempts Percentage (HDCF%) was a very good 53.03%*.

This number means that Kempny was helping to drive offense and limit quality shots against when he was on the ice, a trend that continued even in a bigger role with the Capitals, a team that at the time was struggling mightily with their even-strength play.

Prior to February 19, 2018, the Washington Capitals were dead-last in the league in 5-on-5 HDCF%, even worse than the woeful Buffalo Sabres, with a 42.96%. From that point on, their mark was 51.94%, and in the playoffs it was 50.17%.

While it is unlikely that all of these improvements can be attributed to solely to Kempny’s arrival, it is inarguable that his presence made a massive difference. The Capitals have the talent to over-perform their stats-based predictions, but to have success they should at least have a 50% HDCF%.

This year, as I write this article, Washington is posting an HDCF% of 45.54%. So, they are actually performing better than they were at this point last season, but there is still room for improvement. What steps can they take to get back to that 50% line?

The method that GM MacLellan seems to be partial to is making a trade, so let’s look into that. Here are three potential trade deadline targets for the Washington Capitals that could help turn things around and spur another cup run.

*All stats on this page and going forward courtesy of Natural Stat Trick.

Jay Bouwmeester

Team: St. Louis Blues

HDCF%: 54.00%

Cap Hit: $5.4 Million (Pending UFA)

The first player I would like for the Washington Capitals to look at is Jay Bouwmeester of the struggling St. Louis Blues. The 35-year-old defenseman is a pending UFA this offseason and carries a cap hit of $5.4 Million.

Bouwmeester has been mentioned increasingly in trade talks due to the struggles of the Blues, who are currently sixth in the Central Division with 51 points. While they are still in the playoff picture, it may be worth selling off some of these rentals and getting something back for them.

After the trade of Jake Muzzin to the Toronto Maple Leafs, Bouwmeester may well be one of the best defensemen on the market this deadline. He has a stellar HDCF% of 54.00%, which only briefly underperforms the rest of the Blues (the team has a HDCF% of 54.72%).

Even if he is technically below-average on his own team, that high of a HDCF% should not be scoffed at. That mark automatically slots him in at third on the Caps, behind Jonas Siegenthaler and Brooks Orpik, neither of whom have played a full season.

Pulling off this trade may be difficult for Washington given the high cap hit Bouwmeester carries, The Capitals are expected to have only $40,000 of cap space per CapFriendly, although they will have more available until Christian Djoos returns from IR.

For this trade to work, the Caps will most likely have to part with Andre Burakovsky and Madison Bowey ($4 million total) and have St. Louis retain some salary to boot. To make this worthwile for the Blues, one could expect a 1st- or 2nd-round pick going their way.

If the trade does go through, Bouwmeester could slot into Dmitry Orlov‘s spot in the Top-4, perhaps with a promoted Siegenthaler or Djoos on his right side. Orlov and his partner Matt Niskanen have been dreadful for Washington this season, a point that the GM has noticed.

Sheltering Orlov and Niskanen until they improve and keeping Brooks Orpik fresh for the playoffs could help the struggling defense turn things around. Between this and his own play, Jay Bouwmeester may be the Michal Kempny that the Washington Capitals need for this playoff run.

Bogdan Kiselevich

Team: Florida Panthers

HDCF%: 57.08%

Cap Hit: $925,000 (Pending UFA)

If you’ve never heard of Bogdan Kiselevich, I can’t really blame you. He has only played 31 games this season since being signed away from CSKA Moscow in the KHL, and he has not done anything noteworthy to be recognized by a non-Panthers fan.

Another left-handed defenseman, Kiselevich may well be the true Michal Kempny of this year’s trade deadline for the Washington Capitals. Despite playing on an awful Florida Panthers team (HDCF% of 45.47%), he has posted an exquisite 57.08% in 31 games played.

Kiselevich has been the recipient of 0.984 team PDO (shooting + save percentage) when he is on the ice, indicating bad luck or lack of talent around him. The Capitals have the talent to comfortably carry a PDO of 1.01 to 1.02, significantly higher than that of the Panthers.

In addition to his high-reward potential, Kiselevich is also extremely cheap, with a cap hit of just $925,000. Washington could very well afford him simply by trading a draft pick, making up the cap space by sending a defenseman like Madison Bowey to the AHL.

Like Bouwmeester, Kiselevich could immediately slot into a top-four role for the Capitals, thereby allowing the struggling Dmitry Orlov and Matt Niskanen to get sheltered minutes so that they can improve on their awful play this season (39.20% and 40.60% HDCF%, respectively).

For the Panthers, with just 50 points at this stage of the season, it may be worth exploring trades to get back assets such as draft picks and prospects. They are currently nine points out of a playoff spot, and Kiselevich does not factor significantly into their future plans.

This trade seems to fit GM Brian MacLellan to a T: a depth defenseman with a low cap hit who can be acquired for a draft pick. Bogdan Kiselevich could very well be a difference maker for the Washington Capitals this season.