Dispelling 3 myths about the Washington Capitals
By Rohan Yaradi
Myth #3: The Washington Capitals made a grave mistake in replacing Barry Trotz with Todd Reirden.
It was the most controversial decision of the offseason: in the afterglow of the Washington Capitals winning the Stanley Cup, they allowed the greatest coach in franchise history to terminate his contract and walk to a division rival.
Rumors of Trotz leaving had been swirling around all season, especially when Todd Reirden had his contract extended and was promoted to associate coach. After the Caps eliminated the Columbus Blue Jackets, it was rumored that he told John Tortorella he was leaving after the season.
It was pretty much a foregone conclusion, then, that Reirden would be taking over as head coach, and given Washington’s playoff struggles under Trotz, the fans were not exactly rabid in disapproval. Then, the Caps won the Stanley Cup, and suddenly those same fans wanted him back.
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When the Capitals decided to put their eggs in Reirden’s basket and allowed Trotz to walk to their division rivals in the New York Islanders, it was obvious that there would be pressure on the rookie head coach. The fan’s expectations had only risen after the Cup win.
Now, with the Islanders above the Capitals in the standings, the scrutiny has increased exponentially. As Barry Svrluga of the Washington Post wrote recently:
"The Capitals need to remember they didn’t become champions because they flipped a switch and decided to. They need to remember they worked and worked and worked until they got it right, and it clicked. Coach Reirden, you’ve got 30 games before the playoffs to get it right."
This narrative has become popular because it is such an easy and obvious one. But is it accurate? I would argue that the statistical analysis shows that it is unfair to pin Washington’s struggles on Reirden taking over for Trotz.
Let’s start with Trotz’s new team, the Islanders. Undoubtedly, they have been one of the most successful teams this season, and the numbers back them up: through 55 games, they have a team HDCF% of 53.23%, compared to Washington’s mark of 45.46%.
Obviously the process is very good in Brooklyn/Long Island, but are the results sustainable? One look at the goaltending statistics paints a potentially worrisome picture for Isles fans: their goaltenders are stopping 93.69% of shots at 5 on 5, including 85.71% of high-danger shots.
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Those are extremely high marks, ones that should not be sustainable. Isles fans would undoubtedly argue that the hiring of goaltending guru Mitch Korn in the offseason explains this turnaround.
Consider, then, that through 55 games last season, Korn’s Capitals posted marks of 92.65% and 82.69%, significantly lower than the Isles this year. And further consider that Korn’s goaltenders last year were Braden Holtby (a former Vezina Trophy winner) and Philipp Grubauer.
This year, Korn has been working his magic on Robin Lehner and Thomas Greiss, both of whom are posting overall save percentages some 10-15 points better than their career bests per Hockey Reference. No goaltending coach is good enough to sustain that level of play all season.
Holtby, meanwhile, is posting a save percentage 12 points below his career average. Was Korn the difference all along? Doubtful, but if so, that drop-off would fall squarely on new goaltending coach Scott Murray, not Reirden.
Beyond the goaltending, there are other factors that point to Reirden not being responsible for Washington’s struggles. As I have mentioned before, the Washington Capitals are actually playing better than they were at this point last season.
There is one particular duo that should bear more of the responsibility for Washington’s struggles: Dmitry Orlov and Matt Niskanen, who have both seen massive drop-offs in their Relative HDCF% this season per Natural Stat Trick (-12.77 and -6.48 through 55 games, respectively).
Is Reirden responsible for this in any way? Per Corsica, the usage for both players has been fairly constant: Niskanen is starting in the defensive zone approximately 3% more often this season, but Orlov’s Defensive Zone Start Percentage has actually decreased marginally.
I would argue, then, that Reirden’s usage cannot be blamed for the poor play of Orlov and Niskanen. I would further claim that this would hold for anybody else on the team who’s play has declined since last season. Check out Natural Stat Trick and Corsica to explore this further.
The bottom line is that there have been certain players who have not performed up to par this season, which is why the Washington Capitals are struggling. Despite these individual slumps, the team’s overall performance is better than it was at this point last season.
As such, it would be unfair to lay the blame on Todd Reirden, or even to claim that keeping Barry Trotz would have made a marked difference. I am confident that he will be able to right the ship before the playoffs.