NHL Mailbag: Which teams have the best shot at beating the Lightning?
This week’s NHL mailbag takes a look at which teams can stop the Tampa Bay Lightning, who’s the next great goal scorer, and more.
The 2018-19 NHL season is almost over. So in honor of it, we’re bringing back one of our favorites – a mailbag post! This week, our expert Dave Stevenson answers questions about the Tampa Bay Lightning, who’s the next great goal scorer, NHL Awards predictions, fan mail, and more.
Remember, if you’d like to have your question answered in a future post, please ask them via Twitter using the #PuckProseMailbag hashtag. Also, if you prefer email, you can send in questions to FanSided.dave@gmail.com. Please use “Puck Prose Mailbag” as the subject. Without further ado, let’s get to it.
Mail Time!
Zdeno Chara is a slam dunk Hall of Famer, yeah?
Oh, no question. I’m not a Boston Bruins fan. I like being honest and I don’t like Boston sports teams. They aren’t quite up to Pittsburgh in my level of irrational disdain (I don’t hate anything), but they’re darn close.
That said, Chara’s a no-doubt Hall of Fame guy in my mind. He’s one of the last great defensemen of his kind. Chara’s a throwback to the days when franchise defensemen were giants who weren’t necessarily the best skaters. Yet here he is, still skating at the age of 40. Chara’s obviously limited, but you’ve got to admire how he’s adapted his game to fit in the modern, faster NHL.
He’s got a Norris Trophy on his resume, even though Mike Green should have won it that year (yes I’m still bitter). Chara’s the tallest player in NHL history as well, which is pretty darn cool. Also, he’s a guy who you just can’t hate. Even Montreal Canadiens fans respect the heck out of him.
Is he in the “best defenseman ever” conversation? No. But if that’s the bar, you might as well kick out every defenseman in the Hall of Fame other than Bobby Orr and Nicklas Lidstrom. Chara’s easily one of the best defensemen of the post-2005 lockout era. He had a pretty impressive (and long) prime. Can’t find a reason why Chara isn’t a Hall of Fame guy. At worst, he’s a better version of Scott Stevens, who is already in the Hall of Fame.
Can Anyone Stop Tampa?
The Tampa Bay Lightning are looking as unstoppable as any team I’ve ever seen. Who do you think has the best chance of stopping them?
Well, first of all, the Stanley Cup Playoffs are tough to predict. Hockey is a cruel and evil sport. Weird stuff can happen in a seven-game series. Maybe Nikita Kucherov and Brayden Point both go ice cold. Perhaps they run into a really hot goalie. Maybe the Lightning run into a hot goalie.
But who has the best chance? Let’s separate the Eastern Conference into tiers.
Nope
New York Islanders
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To beat the Lightning, you’re going to have to be able to score goals. Because you know they’re going to score goals. The Islanders are great defensively, but struggle to score goals. Doesn’t seem like a good matchup to me. Robin Lehner is going to have to steal the series for the Islanders if they want to beat Tampa.
Montreal Canadiens
The Montreal Canadiens play a style of hockey that’s fun to watch. Unfortunately for them, it won’t cut it against Tampa. The Lightning have won all three of their games against them this season. Montreal doesn’t have the talent to matchup against Tampa. Carey Price is having a terrific season, but he’s not 2014-15 Price. If he was, the Habs would have a decent chance. But he’s not.
Dark Horses
Columbus Blue Jackets
Columbus has two things going for them that make me think they’ve at least got a plausible shot of beating Tampa. First of all, they don’t commit many penalties. Only the Toronto Maple Leafs have committed fewer penalties (188) than the Blue Jackets (190). The Lightning have a lethal power play, so Columbus could negate what might be Tampa’s best weapon.
Secondly, the Blue Jackets have the NHL’s fourth-best penalty kill. So even when Tampa gets power plays, Columbus has the shorthanded units necessary to minimize the damage done. Also, the Blue Jackets are remarkably good at slowing down the game. Tampa prefers to play with the pedal to the metal, so to speak. If I were a Lightning fan, I’d be rooting agains the Blue Jackets making the postseason.
Carolina Hurricanes
The Carolina Hurricanes love to play up-tempo hockey. So Tampa won’t have an advantage there. The Hurricanes are one of the very few teams who can keep up with the Lightning. There’s a pretty clear mismatch in goal, but anything can happen in the Stanley Cup Playoffs. I’d pay good money to see the Hurricanes and Lightning play because there would be at least two games with the two teams combining for at least 10 goals.
Boston Bruins
While the Boston Bruins are a great team, I don’t think they match up well against the Lightning. Sure, Patrice Bergeron, Brad Marchand, and David Pastrnak are going to get their goals. But who’s going to help them?
The Bruins still have a shot thanks to their outstanding goaltending and defense. Tuukka Rask is having one of his finest seasons and Jaroslav Halak is used to crushing the dreams of super teams. The Bruins wouldn’t go down in five like last year. But I just don’t see them scoring enough to take down Tampa. The Bruins will at least make the Lightning sweat, though.
Best Chance
Toronto Maple Leafs
Much like the Blue Jackets, the Maple Leafs simply don’t commit penalties. Ironically, they don’t draw many either. While the Leafs wouldn’t get to use their power play, they’d probably take it if it means the Lightning don’t get to use theirs.
Also, Toronto has Frederik Andersen. He’s a bit out of sorts right now, but if he gets right, few goalies are better than him. The Maple Leafs are one of the very few teams who can match their forward depth too.
Pittsburgh Penguins
The Pittsburgh Penguins are playing outstanding hockey as of late. They’re flat out destroying teams in terms of scoring chances and goals. The Penguins have Sidney Crosby and Evgeni Malkin. That’s a tough duo for anyone, even a team as great as the Lightning, to stop.
On top of that, goaltender Matt Murray is looking a lot like the guy with ice in his veins who helped the Penguins win back-to-back Stanley Cups. As icing on the cake, the Pens likely won’t even have to worry about Tampa until the Eastern Conference Final. They have an easier path there than the Lightning.
Washington Capitals
Honestly, I just want a seven-game series of this game. Seriously though, the Capitals have the skill to match up against Tampa plus they’ve got that bite you hate to play against in the Stanley Cup Playoffs.
The Next Great Eight
Who do you think is the next Alex Ovechkin – the next great goal scorer?
OK, those are two completely different questions. Alex Ovechkin is more than just a great goal scorer. He’s probably the best goal scorer. Once Ovechkin retires, there likely won’t be another him for quite some time.
The only guy right now who I can see being the next generationally great goal scorer is Auston Matthews and health isn’t on his side. Now, goals per game don’t tell the whole story. A whole freaking decade passed between Ovechkin’s first season (2005-06) and Matthews’ (2015-16). So let’s look at era-adjusted goals per game for their first three seasons.
- Matthews (114 in 206 games)*: 0.553
- Ovechkin (172 in 245 games): 0.702
*as of March 26, 2019
This shows not just how good Matthews is to average over a 40 goal pace over his first three seasons, but also how rare someone like Ovechkin is. But if anyone has a shot of being the next Ovi, it’s Matthews.
Now, who’s going to be the next great goal scorer? That’s a far easier question. Here are some names to consider. Obviously, Matthews is at the top of the list. Everything we know about him to this point suggests he’s nothing short of an excellent goal scorer.
Patrik Laine certainly has the talent to do it. But he’s even streakier than most goal scorers are. Laine will at worst be a guy you can sharpie in for 20+ goals a year and potentially 30+. But he has the potential to be a fairly consistent 40+ goal scorer.
Andrei Svechnikov already has 20 goals in his rookie year, which is impressive. His nose for the net constantly amazes me. As terrific as Sebastian Aho is, Svechnikov has the potential to be an even better goal scorer.
Brayden Point is a 40 goal scorer this season. If only his surname was “goal” and not “point”. Dads, feel free to use this pun on your kids. In all seriousness, Point’s always been a very good finisher, but I’m not sold on him continuing to score on 21.9 percent of his shots on goal.
If you want some dark horse candidates, I’ve got two for you. The first is Alex DeBrincat. All he does is score goals. Through his first 157 games, he already has 66 goals. That’s nuts. DeBrincat will most likely finish with over 40 goals.
The second guy? Jake Guentzel. Speaking of which…
Just How Good Is Guentzel?
Jake Guentzel’s been a miracle for my fantasy team this year. What do you think makes him so good? Is Guentzel a product of Sidney Crosby, or is he something more?
This is a really good question. I think what makes Guentzel so good is that he’s the perfect linemate for Crosby. He’s not the most skilled player. Guentzel’s shot is not elite. His skating is pretty good, but it’s not even close to the elite guys like Nathan MacKinnon and Connor McDavid.
A lot of what makes Guentzel so good is in his head. He has a sky-high hockey IQ. This should surprise nobody because Guentzel is a coach’s kid. If you’re not an elite talent, the best way to be a great player is to be smarter than everyone else. Guentzel is playing chess while everyone else is playing checkers.
While I think he undeniably benefits from playing with Crosby, calling him a product of his center isn’t the complete truth. Guentzel is the perfect linemate for Sid The Kid because Sid’s game revolves around making his linemates better. For that to happen, you have to be exactly where Crosby wants you to be. Guentzel’s really caught onto this and it’s become second nature for him.
I think it’s telling that Guentzel might be the best wing Crosby’s ever had for an extended period of time. You could argue Brad Marchand and Patrice Bergeron were better because that line destroyed everything in sight during the World Cup of Hockey. The mere fact Guentzel’s worth comparing to those guys tells you how smart he is.
So, to answer your question, Guentzel isn’t a product of Crosby. Sure, he benefits from playing with him. But Guentzel would be really good with just about anyone.
Award Predictions
With the regular season almost over, who do you think should win the major NHL awards and who do you think will win them? (Hart, Vezina, Norris, Jack Adams, Masterton)
I’m glad you clarified who I think should win and who I think will win because they’re usually different guys. Not this year, though.
Hart Trophy
Who should win: It’s Nikita Kucherov’s award to lose at this point. He’s having arguably the best season anyone has had in the salary cap era. Only four players have reached the 120 point plateau since the 2004-05 lockout and Kucherov is one of them.
Of those other three players (Joe Thornton, Jaromir Jagr, and Sidney Crosby), two of them won the Hart Trophy that season. The third (Jagr) didn’t because he did it in the same season Thornton did. I don’t care how deep the Lightning are, Kucherov would be the most valuable player to any team.
Who will win: Kucherov. Anyone who doesn’t vote for him should have to submit a 10-page single-spaced (with Arial font size 8) essay explaining why they didn’t vote for him and then submit their immediate resignation from the PHWA.
Vezina Trophy
Who should win: Ben Bishop of the Dallas Stars. I get that Andrei Vasilevskiy has a lot of shiny stats. But Bishop has had to be great for the Stars to have a chance to win most nights. I’m not taking anything away from Vasilevskiy, he’s been fabulous. But objectively, Bishop and Anton Khudobin have been the biggest reasons why the Stars are a playoff team.
The issue is, Bishop won’t reach 50 games played. That’s an important milestone for Vezina voters, for some odd reason. No goalie in the voting era (the Vezina went to the goalie of the team who allowed the fewest goals until 1982) has won the Vezina in a full season with under 50 appearances.
Who will win: Vasilevskiy. He’s a perfectly fine winner, but Bishop has been better. The sample size for Bishop is smaller, but roughly 10 games aren’t going to change much.
Norris Trophy
Who should win: Mark Giordano. He’s got the numbers to back up his candidacy. Few defensemen tilt the ice in their team’s favor more than the Calgary Flames captain. He’s having a career year at an age when defensemen usually start declining. I don’t know where Giordano found his Lazarus Pit, but good for him.
Who will win: Giordano. He’s got the numbers on his side and the narrative too. It’s been a while since a defenseman from a Canadian team has won the Norris, so expect Canadian hockey writers to be insufferable.
Masterton Trophy
This one’s hard because we don’t even know who the finalists are yet. But there are still some pretty obvious candidates. Kris Letang of the Pittsburgh Penguins stands out. As does Robin Lehner of the New York Islanders. Lehner’s story is so darn incredible (you can read it here), if he gets nominated, I can’t think of anyone in the league right now who has overcome a more significant obstacle to play hockey.
Final Round
When do you think the Ottawa Senators will be competitive?
The Senators won’t be competitive regularly until Eugene Melnyk either steps back and lets people do their jobs or he sells the team.
Why do more ppl use Old Bay than J.O.?
I might get deported from Maryland for saying this, but I don’t know why. J.O. is objectively better than Old Bay. Name recognition obviously plays a role in it. Everyone knows about Old Bay and associates it with Maryland. Same reason why more people drink Coke than Dr. Pepper despite Dr. Pepper being objectively better.
Who’s the next player to sign a deal worth over $100 million?
Really good question. Maybe Erik Karlsson could pull it off? If all teams could offer him eight years, I’d be shocked if at least one team didn’t offer him $100 million over eight years. But over seven years? Probably not. Then again, guys like Karlsson are very rarely available so it’s hard to predict how his market will play out. Taylor Hall’s next deal could be in that range. I think it largely depends on how many elite players decide to do what Matthews did – get to free agent sooner and get more money.
Next. Each NHL Team's Greatest Player Of All-Time. dark
Most famous player who will be selected by Seattle in the expansion draft?
This is hard to predict, but I’m curious who the Nashville Predators will lose. Could be someone like P.K. Subban or Ryan Ellis. T.J. Oshie is another name who comes to mind immediately.