5 bold offseason predictions for the Toronto Maple Leafs
The Toronto Maple Leafs face an interesting offseason after once again falling short of the Stanley Cup. Here’s what we think will happen this offseason in Toronto.
The Toronto Maple Leafs had a huge offseason in 2018. They signed John Tavares, yet still couldn’t get past the Boston Bruins in the first round of the Stanley Cup Playoffs. This is a critical offseason for Toronto, perhaps even more so than the last offseason. The Leafs are facing a cap crunch and must make the right moves.
Assuming Toronto uses the LTIR properly, they have about $14 million of cap space to play with. They’re listed as having less than that on CapFriendly, but keep in mind this number is without Nathan Horton on the long-term injured reserve list. He’ll likely be put on the LTIR to start the season.
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Still, the Leafs will likely have a different look to start the season. At least one major player will probably be traded, depending on your definition of “major”. Here’s what we think will happen this offseason in Toronto.
5. A Promotion
Mike Babcock will remain as the Toronto Maple Leafs head coach. However, the coaching staff will likely look different. Even if assistant coaches D.J. Smith and Jim Hiller don’t leave the organization for an NHL head coaching job, the failures of the power play and penalty kill mean the Leafs will likely move on from at least one of them.
Should this happen, I believe it will be Toronto Marlies head coach Sheldon Keefe replacing whoever leaves. Some might think this is a bad idea since Babcock and Keefe couldn’t be more different. However, this could be general manager Kyle Dubas’ way of reminding his head coach who the boss is. Babcock would likely be far more open to changing the way he does things if he knows his replacement is next to him.
Also, I think the Maple Leafs will have to promote Keefe to keep him away from another NHL team. It wouldn’t surprise me in the slightest if the Buffalo Sabres and other teams looking for a head coach view him as a serious candidate. Promoting him and giving him a fancy “associate head coach” title would be one way for the Leafs to hang on to Keefe. Dubas, by the way, is a huge fan of the Marlies head coach.
4. Marner Stays
The media seems convinced teams are going to try to sign Mitch Marner to an offer sheet. Every year, people think this will be the year some team is going to sign someone to an offer sheet. Just about every year, nobody signs one.
Marner, however, is a special case. He’s one of the premier young players in the NHL and the Maple Leafs have cap issues. Still, teams rarely sign anyone to offer sheets because of the outrageous compensation rules. Who would sign Marner to a deal that would make them give up at least two first-round picks (probably four) and be able to afford his cap hit? Virtually no one.
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You’ve got to give credit to Marner and his agent. They have the media eating out of the palms of their hands. There are media members who think Marner deserves more than $10 million per year.
However, there is one wing who currently makes that much – Patrick Kane. Marner’s darn good, but he’s not that good. He won’t sign for eight digits, but remember, the media has already been hyping Marner up as being worth that much. This will make him look like the good guy when he gets something like $9.5 million per year.
Also, any difference in his cap hit is going to be made up in cheesy commercials. Marner’s a local Toronto boy who could make a ton of money in endorsements. He’s sticking around. The Leafs, however, will regret not signing him last summer before letting him pump up his value by getting lots of playing time with John Tavares.
3. Leafs Trade Brown and Zaitsev
The Toronto Maple Leafs need to trim some cap space this summer. Doing it by not keeping Andreas Johnsson and Kasperi Kapanen around isn’t ideal. Ideally, the Toronto Maple Leafs should trim fat in other areas. Forward Connor Brown and defenseman Nikita Zaitsev are the two best options.
Brown
Brown’s at worst a decent bottom six forward. He could fit into the top nine on most teams. However, on the Maple Leafs, he was their 10th-most used forward at five-on-five. Brown doesn’t have a no-trade clause and his cap hit is a fairly reasonable one at $2.1 million. He can also kill penalties.
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Zaitsev
If the Maple Leafs can get rid of Zaitsev, it would let them address their defensive woes. Lou Lamoriello signed him to a very confusing seven-year deal worth $4.5 million per season. His no-trade clause starts on July 1, so expect the Leafs to try to move him before then.
Zaitsev has been trending the wrong way over the past two seasons. Let’s compare his Wins Above Replacement (WAR), using Evolving Hockey’s Goals Above Replacement model.
- 2016-17 (rookie season): -0.5 WAR
- 2017-18: 0.6 WAR
- 2018-19: -0.5 WAR
Still, he plays top-four minutes on a Stanley Cup contender. Teams value that. The Leafs won’t get much for him, but trading him would get them out of a bad deal.
2. The Leafs Shop Kadri
The Toronto Maple Leafs need to make a big move of some kind. Babcock’s sticking around, so the next best guy to get rid of is Nazem Kadri. He’s a great center. However, it’s unquestionable Kadri has cost the Maple Leafs in consecutive postseasons.
Toronto will have to be careful in moving him, though. It’s important to remember Kadri is on a bargain contract. Say what you want about his tendency to do dumb things, $4.5 million is highway robbery for a shutdown center who can score like him. If the Leafs trade him, they’ll have to make sure they trade him in a deal that makes sense for them.
However, it’s also worth noting Toronto already has an internal replacement for Kadri in William Nylander. Considering he was thrown into the fire in the postseason against the Boston Bruins, he did an admirable job.
If the Leafs trade Kadri, it will most likely be a hockey trade for a right-handed defenseman. Tyson Barrie could be someone Toronto targets (though Colorado would have to add more to the deal). Esa Lindell of the Dallas Stars would be a good guy to target as well, though the Stars love him.
I’m not sure if the Leafs will trade Kadri. But they will certainly explore it. Don’t be surprised if Kadri’s the guy who gets traded.
1. The Blockbuster Trade
Another reason the Toronto Maple Leafs might not trade Kadri is because they might trade William Nylander. I could see the Leafs looking at the Minnesota Wild’s roster right now and licking their chops. It’s clear they are open to moving just about anyone and general manager Paul Fenton is trying to make his mark on his team.
There are two players on the Wild who the Maple Leafs should target – Jason Zucker and Jared Spurgeon. Matt Dumba could be on the table as well.
Zucker
Reportedly, Fenton nearly dealt Zucker to the Calgary Flames, but the deal fell through. He would be a huge upgrade at forward, even for a team as gifted as the Leafs. On paper, Zucker had a fairly disappointing year. A season after scoring 33 goals with 64 points, he scored just 22 goals with 42 points.
Zucker’s a very good bet to bounce back next season. He had the second-lowest individual shooting percentage of his career (9.6%). Furthermore, the Wild converted on only 6% of their shots on goal with him on the ice, the lowest mark of his career. Zucker also plays a 200-foot game and would be a great fit for the Leafs.
The best thing about him, though, might be his contract. It’s beautiful. Zucker is signed through 2023 at just $5.5 million per season. His no-trade clause starts in July, so the Wild will likely try to move him by then. As much as I think Nylander will bounce back in 2019-20, I wouldn’t hesitate to trade him or Kadri for Zucker.
Spurgeon
Spurgeon would be the better pure fit for the Toronto Maple Leafs. It’s not a secret they’re looking for a quality right-handed defenseman. Though Spurgeon will be a free agent after the 2019-20 season, the Leafs should look at him not just as a short-term option, but a long-term one as well.
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He’s precisely what they need. Spurgeon is right-handed, mobile, can play during all situations, and is a legitimate top pairing defenseman. Whether he plays next to Morgan Rielly on the top pairing or if he drives the second pairing, he’d play a large role in fixing the Maple Leafs defensive issues.