NHL free agency: 5 free agents that will be overpaid this offseason

4. Anders Lee

New York Islanders general manager Lou Lamoriello has already extended two of his top pending UFAs in Brock Nelson and Jordan Eberle. Now, he has to figure out what to do with captain Anders Lee.

The 28-year-old filled in nicely as the new leader with John Tavares leaving in free agency last year. Lee scored 28 goals and 51 points, leading the Islanders to a first-round upset against the Pittsburgh Penguins. Thanks to his strong efforts throughout a year, Lee is set up for a big contract. But buyer beware.

Lee figuratively regressed offensively after a career year in which he scored 40 goals and 62 points. That was thanks in large part to a career-best 19.2 shooting percentage. It dropped down by 5.5 percent this year, so Lee predictably fell down to 28 goals and 51 points.

But Lee, like many Islanders players, was a product of pure puck luck. This season, the Islanders ranked 26th in Corsi For percentage at 47.85%, according to Natural Stat Trick. Lee, per Hockey Reference, had a mere 49.2% Corsi For percentage.

Chances are Lee regresses by a decent margin in 2018-19. He hasn’t had very good puck numbers, and yet he nearly hit 30 goals for a third straight year. Some teams won’t pay any attention to that, and one of them will give Lee too much money.

Also, Lee is 28 years of age. For a guy who’s usually good for around 50 points a season, he’s probably worth no more than $6 to $7 million a season. It would not be a surprise if somebody went over that and gave him over $7 million.