NHL Trade Rumors: Top 5 offer sheet candidates this offseason

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This NHL offseason has already seen big moves. According to the latest NHL trade rumors, there could be some offer sheets signed. Which players could do it?

The NHL offseason is off to a roaring start. Even though Erik Karlsson will no longer be hitting free agency, there’s still a lot of NHL trade rumors going around. Most of them revolve around everyone’s favorite mythical hockey unicorn – offer sheets. Every year, people claim players will sign an offer sheet. Most years, their dreams are crushed by reality.

An offer sheet has not been signed since the 2013 season, when 2019 Stanley Cup champion center Ryan O’Reilly, then with the Colorado Avalanche, signed an offer sheet for two years worth $10 million with the Calgary Flames. The Avalanche matched it.

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In case you don’t know what an offer sheet is, CapFriendly has a great refresher here and you can check out the compensation tiers for 2019 here.

This article will only discuss reasonable offer sheet candidates. No, Mitch Marner is not signing an offer sheet. Most of the teams in a position to sign him to one can’t offer him what the Toronto Maple Leafs can – a Stanley Cup contender. The Leafs would match anything he signs anyway.

We’re not going to focus on the guys who fall in the top tier of compensation. No one’s giving up four first-round picks to sign anyone. There’s a reason nobody has signed an offer sheet of that magnitude since Shea Weber – it’s simply not a feasible price to pay for most players.

Rather, let’s look at the lower tiers. There could be some value in those tiers. If you could trade, say, a third-round pick for an NHL player, you’d probably do it, right? A third-round pick has a fairly low shot of making the NHL anyway.

Let’s take a look at the top five candidates who teams could target for an offer sheet starting on July 1.

Photo by Jamie Sabau/NHLI via Getty Images /

5. Brayden Point

Tampa Bay Lightning center Brayden Point is about to get paid. He’s coming off a career season, during which he emerged as one of Tampa’s most valuable and productive forwards. Brayden lived up to his last name by setting career-highs with 91 points and 41 goals.

The question is, which team is going to be paying him? Point is a restricted free agent and Tampa only has $6.86 million of cap space, as of June 18. This assumes the salary cap ceiling is $83 million. It could be lower than that.

The Lightning have options to create cap space, but they might have just lost their best one. Trading Ryan Callahan with a draft pick or prospect would save Tampa $5.8 million. His modified no-trade clause was already going to make moving him hard, but a recent back injury could make it even more difficult. It could also make him ineligible for a buyout, as you can’t buyout an injured skater.

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A six-year deal worth $8.75 million annually would just barely fall under the compensation tier of two first-round picks, a second-round pick, and a third-round pick. Remember, to calculate the average annual value of an offer sheet that’s for more than five years, you take the total money involved and divide it by five.

8.75 times six is 52.5. $52.5 million divided by five is $10.5 million per year. The four first-round pick tier begins at $10,568,590 per year.

Two first rounders, a second rounder, and a third rounder is still a pretty hefty price to pay. But guys like Point are very hard to find. An added bonus of the offer sheet – the Lightning would have to part with someone like Tyler Johnson, Alex Killorn, J.T. Miller, or Callahan within a week of the offer sheet being signed.

Chances of an offer sheet: Slim to none. The Lightning are probably going to ensure Point is signed by July 1. Also, how many teams are going to offer Point a better chance of winning than Tampa does? Remember, the player has to sign the offer sheet too, and you don’t sign an offer sheet unless you are willing to leave your team.

Photo by Brett Holmes/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images /

4. Sam Bennett

On paper, the Calgary Flames have cap space. They’re $14 million under, according to CapFriendly. Surely the Flames will be able to afford restricted free agent Sam Bennett, right? Not so fast, cowboy.

Calgary also has to sign fellow RFAs Matthew Tkachuk and David Rittich. The former is likely getting a long-term deal and the latter’s likely getting a bridge deal. Conservatively, they should get about $10 to $11 million combined.

Also, the Flames would probably like to add a goaltender since Mike Smith is likely leaving in free agency. That leaves very little money for Bennett and the other RFAs, Alan Quine and Andrew Mangiapane.

A Travis Hamonic or T.J. Brodie trade would likely free up enough cap space for the Flames to be able to afford everyone. But it’s not hard to see how a team could target Bennett with an offer sheet on July 1.

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If nothing else, force the Flames to choose – either trade a quality defenseman and get back pennies on the dollar or lose Bennett, who has at least 25 points in each of his last three seasons. Calgary’s lacking in terms of internal replacements for him too. And it might feel like he’s been around forever, but Bennett’s about to turn 23 years old.

It wouldn’t even take a significant offer sheet to make the Flames sweat. Something around $3 to $4 million a year would likely do it. That would fall under the second-round pick tier.

Would you trade a second-round pick to get Bennett on a two-year or three-year deal? Some team might be willing to take that chance. Case in point – the Flyers just traded a second-round pick (and a third rounder) for Justin Braun!

Chances of an offer sheet: I could see a team loaded with cap space, such as the New Jersey Devils or Carolina Hurricanes, doing it. But you can probably find a player who can give you more value. That said, Bennett’s still young enough to be an interesting candidate.

Photo by Jeanine Leech/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images /

3. Jakub Vrana

Jakub Vrana of the Washington Capitals picked a terrific time to have a breakout year. After showing his greatness in bursts during their 2018 Stanley Cup run, Vrana earned a cozy second-line left wing spot, consistently playing with either Evgeny Kuznetsov or Nicklas Backstrom. The end result? 24 goals, 23 assists, and 47 points. All of them career-highs for the 23-year-old forward.

The Capitals, as usual, don’t have a very friendly salary cap situation. They have about $10.735 million of cap space (again, assuming the cap ceiling is at $83 million). The Caps need to add at least three forwards and likely a seventh defenseman to their roster.

It’s likely Vrana will get a bridge deal. The Capitals would love to work something out long-term, but there’s not enough space right now. If Vrana really wants a long-term deal, another team could lend him a hand by signing him to an offer sheet.

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He’s probably not worth giving up two first rounders for, but how about $6 million a year for five years? This would only cost the signing team a first-round pick and a third-round pick if the Capitals don’t match. Still an expensive price, but one worth paying for someone as talented and young as Vrana.

It’s not like the Capitals have many viable options to dump cap space if they need to. Virtually everyone on the Caps signed to a deal with a meaningful cap hit would be difficult to get fair value for in a trade.

Chances of an offer sheet: This is the first interesting offer sheet candidate. Teams wouldn’t have to overpay Vrana to make the offer sheet all but unmatchable. Of course, teams don’t use offer sheets. But if I were a team like the New York Islanders who desperately need goal scoring, I’d give serious thought to signing Vrana to an offer sheet.

2. William Karlsson

With a cap hit of $83.14 million already, the Vegas Golden Knights are over the salary cap less than two weeks before teams can sign players to an offer sheet. William Karlsson could be an easy target for one.

He dipped from 43 goals and 78 points during the 2017-18 season to 24 goals and 56 points during the 2018-19 season, but he’s still a first-line caliber center. At 26 years old, Karlsson’s still a fairly young one as well.

Now, Vegas has an easy, simple, way to clear cap space – trade David Clarkson. Teams can’t use the long-term injured reserve list for salary cap relief during the offseason. This means the Golden Knights have Clarkson’s $5.25 million cap hit on the books.

He’s only getting paid $3.25 million (and just $1 million after July 1), so perhaps a team who wants to reach the cap floor (hi Ottawa Senators!) would be interested in him.

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Teams are allowed to go over the salary cap in the offseason by 10%, so Vegas could afford to match most offers. However, the Golden Knights might have trouble an offer sheet with at least a $7 million cap hit. Vegas has to re-sign RFAs Nikita Gusev, Tomas Nosek, and Malcolm Subban. Even an $8 million cap hit over five years would be worth it for Karlsson.

Chances of an offer sheet: Karlsson is worth signing to an offer sheet. I think the big question is, how high would teams be willing to go? A $7 million AAV (which would fall under the first rounder, second rounder, and third rounder tier) likely gets the job done, but Vegas has tradeable deals. Colin Miller and Ryan Reaves are among their options there.

Golden Knights front office ringleader George McPhee outsmarted a lot of teams during the 2017 NHL Expansion Draft. One of those teams he took advantage of just two years ago could be in a position to return the favor.

1. Andreas Johnsson or Kasperi Kapanen

The Toronto Maple Leafs are the perfect team to target with an offer sheet. They have several candidates. Everyone talks about Marner, but the Leafs can match just about anything tossed at him short of the four first-round picks tier. Marner is a great player, but he’s not good enough to warrant surrendering four first-round picks.

Their most likely candidates are Kasperi Kapanen and Andreas Johnsson. Both are restricted free agents. Unless the Leafs get moving on trading Nikita Zaitsev and Patrick Marleau, it wouldn’t take much to sign either of them to an offer sheet that would be hard for Toronto to match.

Personally, I’d take Kapanen over Johnsson. Johnsson is the better goal scorer, which isn’t insignificant. However, Kapanen is two years younger and is the better 200-foot player. He has more upside as well. Johnsson would be a fine option too, especially for a team looking to add a goal scorer.

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Chances of an offer sheet: If Kapanen and/or Johnsson face an offer sheet, it won’t happen right away. Teams will wait until Marner signs his extension. Then they’ll know what kind of offer sheet would be hard for Toronto to match.

An offer sheet for Kapanen and/or Johnsson isn’t likely. But it would make a ton of sense. If general managers weren’t cowards, it would happen.

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