NHL free agency: 5 teams who should sign Matt Duchene
Matt Duchene is set to become the best center in NHL free agency. Which 5 teams make the most sense for him to sign with?
It’s officially silly season. NHL free agency begins on July 1 and now teams can start meeting with prospective free agents. The market is buzzing with NHL rumors and teams are preparing to spend a ton of money. Matt Duchene is the cream of the crop when it comes to centers, as he’s the best center on the market.
First, let’s look at why he’s the best center on the market. Here’s where Duchene ranks among UFA centers, according to CapFriendly. For the record, they do not count Joe Pavelski as a center – he’s a right wing.
- Goals – 1st (31)
- Assists – 1st (39)
- Points – 1st (70)
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Even if you include Pavelski in that group, Duchene would have ranked second in goals, behind Pavelski’s 38. Among UFA forwards, he ranks second in each category, trailing Pavelski in goals and Artemi Panarin in assists and points.
Kevin Hayes just signed a deal worth over $7 million a year and Duchene is objectively better than him. So expect him to sign for a huge amount. Let’s take a look at the five teams who would make the most sense for him.
5. Anaheim Ducks
The Anaheim Ducks are a huge dark horse candidate to sign Duchene. They’re looking to replace Ryan Kesler, whose career might be over. About a month ago, Craig Custance of The Athletic linked the Ducks to Duchene (subscription required).
What’s interesting is Anaheim just bought out Corey Perry. This gives them over $10 million of cap space with 20 players signed. It would be nothing short of unexpected if Duchene signed with the Ducks. Chances are, Anaheim would have to found a taker for Patrick Eaves‘ contract, and he played just seven games last season and has played in just nine over the last two years.
Duchene keeps getting linked to the Ducks, so maybe there’s something there. But I doubt it.
4. Arizona Coyotes
Much like the Ducks, the Arizona Coyotes are a dark horse to sign Matt Duchene. They’ve been linked to him and he would certainly be a fit on their team. Duchene can score goals and the Coyotes need them desperately.
During the 2018-19 season, the Yotes scored just 213 goals, which ranked 27th out of the 31 teams. Furthermore, the Coyotes were the lone team in the NHL without a single player who scored at least 20 goals. Alex Galchenyunk and Brad Richardson both scored 19, though.
The Coyotes would be hard pressed to find the cap space to keep him around. It’s weird talking about Arizona not having much cap space, isn’t it? Anyway, according to CapFriendly, they have about $6 million of cap space and they have some RFAs to re-sign.
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So in order to make room for Duchene, the Coyotes would have to move some fairly significant salary. Backup goaltender Darcy Keumper could make sense. Also, they could put Marian Hossa on the LTIR. Remember, there’s no LTIR in the summer.
Duchene going to Arizona is at least plausible. The Coyotes should have a new owner shortly. However, it probably won’t get finalized until after July 1, which likely means it would take nothing short of a miracle for Duchene to sign in Arizona.
3. Montreal Canadiens
The Montreal Canadiens are primed to have a big offseason. They have quite a bit of cap space and most of their roster has been filled out. This means the Canadiens can be extremely specific about who they pursue. Duchene is someone Montreal has had their eyes on for a while now and, yes, they’ve been linked to him recently.
During the 2018-19 season, the Canadiens only had three 20 goal scorers. That was tied for 18th in the NHL, which puts them as a below average team in that regard. It’s worth noting, though, that Andrew Shaw had 19 goals and Jonathan Drouin had 18 goals.
Duchene’s 31 goals would have placed second on Montreal, trailing only Brendan Gallagher‘s 33. The Canadiens have a number of centers, so on paper, maybe that means they shouldn’t sign another center. However, Duchene has experience playing at wing too. Plus, as they say, you can never have too many centers.
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Also, the Canadiens might have a number of quality center options. But they don’t have a number one center. Duchene would give the Canadiens a franchise center, something they haven’t had in quite some time.
Finally, Montreal has the cap space to bring him in. And they certainly have the cash as well. That said, I believe the Canadiens are going to focus on trying to sign Jake Gardiner because they need a left-handed defenseman who can move the puck. But don’t be surprised if they wind up signing Duchene.
2. Columbus Blue Jackets
No suitor for Matt Duchene has more cap space to sign him than the Columbus Blue Jackets. Currently, they have well over $30 million of cap space, according to CapFriendly.
Duchene was traded to the Blue Jackets at the trade deadline. They gave up a lot to get him, but he wound up being a terrific fit. On paper, he only had 12 points in 23 regular season games with them, which doesn’t sound like much. However, it’s worth noting his shooting percentage was 6.7% during that time, which is very low for him.
During the Stanley Cup Playoffs, Duchene was a huge reason the Blue Jackets were able to upset the top-seeded Tampa Bay Lightning. In 10 postseason games, he had 10 points as their number one center. Seven of those points came against Tampa.
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That said, let’s discuss the pink elephant in the room nobody wants to acknowledge – the cost of re-signing Duchene. Not only would it take a significant contract, likely in the range of $9 million to over $10 million per year. It would also cost the Blue Jackets their 2020 first-round pick, which could be a high one given how much the Metropolitan Division has improved. And it’s not lottery protected.
The Blue Jackets, do, however, have one fairly significant advantage. They are the only team who can offer Duchene an eight-year deal. That might get his AAV down closer to $9 million, or maybe even slightly below it. For that reason, I still like their chances of signing him. But they’re not the favorites.
1. Nashville Predators
Not only are the Nashville Predators the favorites to sign Matt Duchene, they’d better sign him. Because if they don’t, suddenly, getting a mediocre return back for star defenseman P.K. Subban looks awfully short-sighted.
The whole reason the Predators traded Subban for two second-round picks, a depth defenseman, and a prospect is because they got his $9 million cap hit completely off the books. The New Jersey Devils were the only team who offered to take on his entire contract.
All signs point to the reason why the Predators wanted to move Subban’s salary was so they could go after Duchene. Duchene has been general manager David Poille’s white whale. The Predators have tried to acquire him numerous times, but have fallen just short each time.
Also, the Predators need a second-line center. Kyle Turris (ironically acquired in a three-way deal involving Duchene) has not been the answer. Duchene, however, would be the answer. He’s a legit franchise center who would give Nashville the one-two punch down the middle they were hoping to have with Ryan Johansen and Turris.
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As I said when I wrote about the Subban trade, the only way that trade won’t look terrible is if the Predators sign Duchene. And, for the record, yes, the trade was still awful. But it would look a bit better if Poille manages to land his coveted white whale (Duchene) after years of searching.