2019 NHL free agency: 5 potential low-cost bargains
NHL free agency is well known for the ridiculous, overpaid contracts handed out. Let’s take a look at five potential free agent bargains.
NHL free agency is nearly upon us. Usually, this time of the year is more known for the hilarious contracts handed out rather than the bargains. There’s a reason many hockey fans refer to the start of free agency as “silly season”.
Tyler Myers might make $7 million a year, so yup, it’s going to be silly season again this year. However, focusing on the negatives is never fun. Let’s look at the positives because I think there are some players who could be nice bargains.
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Getting bargains is critical for any Stanley Cup contender. For example, look at Brett Connolly. The Washington Capitals signed him to a bargain deal not once, but twice. He was a critical top-nine forward for them and proved himself to perhaps be more than that this season.
Another great example is Pat Maroon. Obviously, the St. Louis Blues had a bit of an unfair advantage, as he pretty much fell into their lap. Maroon wanted to be near his family and he lives in St. Louis. The Blues wouldn’t have won the Stanley Cup without their hometown hero.
Tyler Ennis gave the Toronto Maple Leafs a lot of value last season despite signing for under $1 million. So, as you can see, you can find bargain players in free agency. You just have to get lucky and you have to know who to target.
Each of these players has something they bring to the table that, if used correctly, could help provide whoever signs them with a nice bargain. These are the kinds of deals that help rebuilding teams because they can trade them for prospects and picks and help contenders because it helps them reach their ultimate goal.
Brandon Pirri
Brandon Pirri has the potential to be a significant bargain this offseason. Why? Because he’s the quintessential high-reward and low-risk free agent. Pirri has jumped between the NHL and AHL for most of his career. No team is offering him more than $1 million a year. It’s not happening.
For $1 million a year, you could have someone who has 23 goals in his last 93 games. Teams take gambles on AHL/NHL guys all the time. Very few, if any, of them have the potential reward of Pirri. Anytime you need to call someone up, he’s a viable candidate. And, if you catch lightning in a bottle, Pirri could be a difference maker. He was for the Vegas Golden Knights, who he scored 12 goals for in just 31 games.
He’s a one-trick pony for sure. But Pirri’s one trick is scoring goals, which is extremely valuable. In a sheltered role, he has proven he can do damage. This is a free agent who everyone should be interested in because how many guys out there could you sign for $1 million who can do what Pirri can do?
That said, he’s reportedly happy in Chicago and that’s where his family is. The Golden Knights’ AHL affiliate is in Chicago, so maybe he sticks with them. Given the cap crunch they are in, they could sure use someone who can come up and give them a spark at a cheap price.
Curtis McElhinney
Curtis McElhinney is a fascinating free agent. He had a great season last year for the Carolina Hurricanes. McElhinney is 36 years old and turns 37 years old next May. However, unlike most goalies, he’s aged like fine wine.
His last three seasons have been his three best save percentage seasons (min. five games played). McElhinney set a career-high last season with 33 appearances in a tandem with the Carolina Hurricanes.
He’s one of the best backup goalies on the market and he’s old. For those two reasons, McElhinney is going to be fairly cheap. And admittedly, his age makes him a bit of a gamble. But it’s a gamble that likely won’t cost much and it’s one that could pay off.
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Teams might take note of what the Hurricanes and Boston Bruins did with their goaltending situations. The former got league-average goaltending with a goalie they signed to a one-year deal and a waiver claim. Meanwhile, the latter saved Tuukka Rask for the postseason by signing Jaroslav Halak.
Potential suitors: The San Jose Sharks are going to be budget conscious, but if McElhinney’s willing to take a discount to try to win a Stanley Cup, that would be a perfect destination for him. A return to the Columbus Blue Jackets or Hurricanes would make sense as well.
Brett Connolly
Three years after signing with the Capitals, Connolly’s here once again. He’s earned himself a nice raise from his previous contract after scoring over 20 goals and picking up over 40 points for the first time in his career.
Connolly gets criticism for being a one-trick pony. That might be warranted. However, his one-trick happens to be a really valuable one – goal scoring. Connolly has scored 52 goals over the past three seasons. And he’s done that despite playing in a third-line role.
As long as teams can keep the number for him around $3.5 million, I think he’ll wind up being a pretty solid bargain. What makes Connolly especially interesting is he proved at the start of the 2018-19 season that he can fill in in the top-six and not look out of place. He’s also a nice guy on the power-play, though the Capitals were stacked there, so he didn’t get too much time there.
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Potential suitors: The Edmonton Oilers have been linked to him and they make a ton of sense for him. Put Connolly next to Connor McDavid and he could score 20 goals simply by falling out of bed in the morning. He’s got the speed to be on his line as well.
It wouldn’t surprise me if the New Jersey Devils express interest in him as well. A goal scorer would help solidify their top six. And it might allow them to keep Kyle Palmieri on Nico Hischier‘s line. On a line with Jack Hughes, the Devils wouldn’t need to worry about moving Palmieri down to give him a good sniper.
Richard Panik
Richard Panik has played for four teams in his seven-year NHL career. He will be an unrestricted free agent for the first time in his professional career. Panik has his flaws (inconsistency is one of them), but he’s proven to be an at worst serviceable top-nine forward.
Over the past three seasons, he has at least 30 points a year in each of them. Panik has scored 14 goals in each of his past two and is merely two seasons removed from scoring 22 goals. His production alone makes him a potential bargain.
But scoring isn’t everything. It’s important, of course, but there are other things to look at as well. Panik has consistently been among the league’s better possession players. Let’s take a look at his possession numbers the past two seasons.
| Season | CF% | xGF% | GF% |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2017-18 | 55.36 | 51.59 | 54.79 |
| 2018-19 | 50.96 | 52.47 | 50 |
In short, when Panik is on the ice, his team won the shot attempts battle and at worst matched their opponents in goals while winning the expected goals battle. That’s pretty darn good for a top-nine forward.
Potential suitors: The Edmonton Oilers would be very smart to take a look at him. They need to be looking at every wing they can find and Panik’s arguably the most underrated available one. He has a skillset the Carolina Hurricanes have proven they value, so I wonder if there’s any interest there.
Joonas Donskoi
Joonas Donskoi is a cap casualty of the San Jose Sharks. He’s expected to hit the free agent market and he could wind up providing whoever signs him with a ton of value. Donskoi drives play on both ends of the ice and can put in a decent amount of points on top of that.
The Sharks were an outstanding team in expected goals last season. Donksoi made them 4.4% better when he was on the ice, which is incredible. The knock on him is he doesn’t contribute enough on the score sheet.
However, Donskoi contributes enough. He has at least 30 points in three of his last four seasons. That’s perfectly acceptable for a top-nine forward. And it will probably keep his cost around $3 million a year or maybe even lower.
Another underrated skill he brings to the table is his ability to draw penalties while staying out of the penalty box. Donksoi’s +17 penalty differential is tied for 17th in the NHL among forwards over the past two seasons. He’s got the second-lowest TOI of anyone on the list too.
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Donskoi’s value comes through things you don’t see on the scoresheet. This will keeps his price pretty low. Donskoi would be a valuable addition to anyone’s top-nine. If you play him with skilled linemates, he might even start getting pucks in the net.