NHL free agency 2019: Predicting where the top free agents will sign

Erik Karlsson may be off the market, but this year’s NHL free agency class is still deep in star power. Here are projections for where the top five UFAs will sign next week.

In recent years, we’ve seen many of the top pending UFAs re-sign with their new teams ahead of July 1st, thus ending any potential drama and excitement for free agent frenzy. But luckily for us, many of the top UFAs of 2019 are about to hit NHL free agency.

Yes, the San Jose Sharks wound up re-signing Erik Karlsson to an eight-year deal, which took the number one free agent of 2019 off the market. And some of the other free agents re-signed as well.

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However, there are still a handful of superstars and game-changers available, and it’s been a long time since there was a free agent class this deep in terms of both star power and depth. Next week, we’ll see a couple of top-pairing defensemen and plenty of top six forwards.

Teams are looking to spend big to get some scoring help. But where will the top free agents go? Who will sign the biggest names? There are plenty of names on the market who could help teams improve and potentially become Stanley Cup contenders.

Even though free agency begins Monday, we may have to wait several days to find out where some of the top UFAs will sign. However, we’re starting to get a good idea of which teams are emerging as the favorite for a certain player.

Here, we’re taking a look at the top five free agents of the 2019 class, and we’re handing out projections on where they will sign. Some are already quite obvious, but others are complete guesses. So let’s get to it and guess where these five players will land.

5. Jake Gardiner: New York Islanders

With Karlsson off the market, Toronto Maple Leafs blueliner Jake Gardiner is the top rearguard in this year’s free agent class. The cap-strapped Leafs have almost no chance of retaining Gardiner unless they were to part ways with Mitch Marner (and that seems extremely unlikely).

It’s reasonable to believe that Gardiner could cost around $7 million annually. There are lots of teams that need a quality top-four defenseman and Gardiner brings tremendous puck-moving skills and plenty of offensive upside (one year removed from a 52-point season).

Most of the top Stanley Cup contenders won’t be able to afford Gardiner, which bodes well for the New York Islanders. They need some offense from the back end, as Ryan Pulock led all Isles defensemen team with 37 points.

Islanders general manager Lou Lamoriello was in Toronto to oversee Gardiner take his game to another level, so the long-time executive knows what the Toronto blueliner can bring to the table here.

Per CapFriendly, the Islanders have around $20.746 million in projected cap space — so they can easily add Gardiner. If Lamoriello could land the 28-year-old, he would address the team’s primary need for a potential top-pairing blueliner and power play quarterback. A five to seven-year deal worth around $7 to $7.5 million annually makes sense here.

4. Joe Pavelski – Dallas Stars

The San Jose Sharks would probably love to retain Joe Pavelski, but after extending Karlsson, they only have about $14.82 million in cap space to re-sign their captain, pending UFA Joe Thornton, and RFAs Kevin Labanc and Timo Meier.

One of them is going to have to go, and with Pavelski likely to command a deal worth around $7 to $9 million a season, it’s easy to believe that he’s played his final game with the Sharks. In fact, Pavelski already took meetings with the Dallas Stars and Tampa Bay Lightning, per TSN’s Pierre LeBrun.

The Stars make perfect sense for Pavelski here, and they certainly have a lot to offer him. They fell just one game shy of reaching the Western Conference Final, despite ranking 29th in offense with a mere 29 goals. Secondary scoring is a need for general manager Jim Nill, and he has just under $11 million in cap space to address it.

Pavelski would be joining a budding contender, and maybe he could move onto a line with All-Stars Jamie Benn and Tyler Seguin. And of course, Pavelski wouldn’t have to pay state taxes in Dallas, so the organization can offer him the most money.

Add it all up, and the Stars are a prime fit for Pavelski. They’re an up-and-coming contender with lots of veteran star power, and they have the money to spend. If winning and cash are what matter most to Pavelski, then Dallas shall be his next stop. A four-year deal worth around $9 million annually should get the deal done.

2. Matt Duchene: Nashville Predators

The Nashville Predators have been linked to center Matt Duchene for quite some time, and the 28-year-old has set up a meeting with the franchise. But at this point, it sounds quite likely that he’ll end up in the Music City, as noted by Matt Larkin of The Hockey News.

Nashville traded away All-Star defenseman P.K. Subban to the New Jersey Devils at the draft last week for a minimal return. General manager David Poile was obviously keen on simply clearing cap space, and he probably wouldn’t have done it if he didn’t feel good about adding Duchene.

The Predators can offer the world to Duchene. He’s a huge country music fan. Tennessee has one of the lowest state tax rates in the country. They can offer him large amounts of cash, and the chance to join a legitimate championship contender.

Obviously, the Predators have a need for a legitimate second line center. Kyle Turris hasn’t been able to fill the role, and Poile will most certainly look to unload him in the offseason. Otherwise, Turris can move down to the third or fourth line while Duchene moves into the top six.

No other team can offer Duchene what the Preds can offer. Again, the lifestyle, the money and the chance to win a Stanley Cup over the long run. It hasn’t happened yet, but this already feels like a done deal. Look for Duchene to sign for the max term (seven years), worth around $9 million a season.

1. Artemi Panarin: Florida Panthers

Artemi Panarin is coming off a career-best 87-point season in Columbus. He has reached the 70-point mark in each of his first four NHL campaigns, scoring no fewer than 27 goals in a single season. Without a doubt, he’s the top free agent of 2019.

As mentioned on the Bobrovsky slide, the Panthers are also expected to go hard after Panarin. And even if they sign Bobrovsky long-term, Florida would still have plenty of cap space to add Panarin as well.

Per George Richards of The Athletic (subscription required), Florida already met with both Panarin and Bobrovsky. Quenneville and Panarin spent two years together with the Chicago Blackhawks, so the familiarity there also helps Florida’s chances of landing the Russian star.

Florida has every reason to try and add Panarin, other than the fact they have bundles of cap space. They have a handful of young stars in Jonathan Huberdeau, Aaron Ekblad, Aleksander Barkov, plus some reliable veterans in Evgenii Dadonov and Keith Yandle, among others.

The Panthers are built to win now, and getting both Bobrovsky and Panarin would make them a favorite in the Eastern Conference. Panarin seems keen on joining Florida, and there simply isn’t a better fit for him. Expect Panarin to sign for max seven-year deal worth around $70 to $80 million.