NHL Free Agency 2019: 5 underrated early signings

Many of the biggest names in 2019 NHL free agency have already found new teams. What are the best signings that went under the radar?

2019 NHL free agency started off with a bang. On the two days of free agency, teams spent over $700 million on over 100 players. After a frantic first 12 hours of action, things have slowed down to a bit of a halt, even with some quality players left on the market.

The biggest dominoes fell early. Artemi Panarin surprised everyone by signing with the New York Rangers. As expected, he got the most expensive deal of free agency, as his deal is worth $81.5 million over seven years. Joe Pavelski went off the board quickly to the Dallas Stars.

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Sergei Bobrovsky got a historic deal – $70 million over seven years. That’s, by a significant margin, the largest contract ever given to a UFA goaltender. It’s also the second-biggest deal given to a goalie in the salary cap era, trailing only Carey Price. Bobrovsky’s $10 million cap hit sets the bar for elite goaltenders.

After a chaotic start, teams are starting to emerge from the carnage. Defenseman Jake Gardiner is the only huge name left on the board, which is a bit interesting with several teams still looking to upgrade their defense. Ryan Dzingel, Micheal Ferland, and Justin Williams are among the forwards who have yet to find a new home.

To this point, the big deals have been the ones getting the most attention. And rightfully so. However, there have been some underrated signings that have flown under the radar. They might not be getting too much attention right now, but chances are, those signings will be talked about positively through the duration of the deal.

I’ll count both UFA and RFA deals for the purposes of this article. However, I won’t count the Sebastian Aho offer sheet fiasco because the Canadiens literally handed the Hurricanes a well-below market value deal for him. Let’s take a look at five signings that could turn out great for both the teams involved and the players. All stats are courtesy of Natural Stat Trick and contract information is via CapFriendly.

5. Colin Wilson, Colorado Avalanche

Terms: One year, $2.6 million

The Colorado Avalanche were a busy team on July 1. They signed three players, the biggest name among them probably being Joonas Donskoi, who just missed the cut for this list. On top of that, the Avalanche traded for Nazem Kadri and Calle Rosen. They paid a steep price, as they’ll miss Alexander Kerfoot and Tyson Barrie. But the Avalanche are now a pretty darn complete team.

Their re-signing of forward Colin Wilson understandably didn’t get much attention. He has scored 20 goals only once and has only one season with more than 40 points. That said, Wilson still brings a lot of value to the Avalanche. I had him at about $3 million a year on the open market.

He fits in quite well in their top-nine. The Avalanche are a team who ride and die with their best players and their offense – Nathan MacKinnon, Mikko Rantanen, and Gabriel Landeskog. This makes Wilson’s consistently impressive defensive fortitude a bit underrated.

Wilson isn’t going to wow you on offense, but he’s a very solid penalty killer and he can be trusted with the game on the line. It’s hard to tell precisely what his role will be, but somewhere on the second line with Nazem Kadri or the third line with (insert third-line center here) should be work for him.

3. Curtis McElhinney, Tampa Bay Lightning

Terms: Two years, $2.6 million ($1.3 million AAV)

The Tampa Bay Lightning haven’t been busy in free agency. It’s not hard to see why that’s the case – they have very little cap space. The Lightning, though, did make one pretty solid signing that nobody’s really talking about. They’re bringing in veteran goaltender Curtis McElhinney on a two-year deal worth $1.3 million annually.

This is interesting for several reasons. The most obvious one is the Lightning already had a capable backup in Louis Domingue. So why sign McElhinney? Well, he’s one of the best backup goalies in the league and he proved during the 2018-19 season he can handle a decent amount of starts.

For me, this points to the Lightning resting Vezina Trophy winner Andrei Vasilevskiy a little bit more. That was an issue during the 2018 Stanley Cup Playoffs and the 2019 postseason. If this is the direction the Lightning are going in, it’s the right one.

Goaltenders get tired over the course of the season. Data suggests goalies who play over 70 games get tired during postseason runs. Whether the rest they got was planned or inadvertent, recent Stanley Cup winning teams have had goalies who got rest during the regular season and dominated in the postseason.

McElhinney is 36 years old, so this contract does have a bit of risk. But it’s minimal and he has aged like fine wine to this point. Even if McElhinney declines a bit, he’d still be a pretty good bargain at just $1.3 million a year. If the Lightning are hoisting the Stanley Cup in June, it will likely be because their backup goalie kept Vasilevskiy rested for a long playoff run.

2. Richard Panik, Washington Capitals

Terms: Four years, $11 million total ($2.75 million AAV)

The Washington Capitals had a fairly quiet day on July 1. While other teams were spending money, they quietly took care of business, remodeling their third and fourth forward lines. Richard Panik was the biggest name they signed. And he could wind up being a significant bargain for them, as I had him worth $4 million a year.

Panik got the same deal Carl Hagelin got, so it’s fitting they will lead the Capitals revamped third forward line. He’ll be replacing Brett Connolly, who got a four-year deal from the Florida Panthers.

Though Connolly is more of a goal scorer, that’s about all he brings to the table. Panik brings a more well-rounded skill set to the table while still being pretty productive. Throughout his career, he has driven play on both ends of the ice, though he’s been better at doing so on offense.

Panik can also kill penalties in the right system. If the Capitals recent signings are a sign of what’s to come, they’ll likely adopt a more aggressive penalty kill. They tried it early last season but didn’t have the personnel to pull it off. Panik should be a big part of their new-look aggressive penalty kill.

He’s not going to add much on the power-play, but it’s not like the Capitals need help there. Panik is a top-nine forward who can drive possession and can score at a pretty solid rate. Best of all, his contract doesn’t have any no-trade clauses, so even if he flames out, the deal is movable.

1. Timo Meier, San Jose Sharks

Terms: Four years, $24 million ($6 million AAV)

The San Jose Sharks nearly couldn’t afford restricted free agent forward Timo Meier. But they found a way to do it. The Sharks are keeping him at a price which is far below market value, even for a restricted free agent. I had him worth about $7.25 million as an RFA on a long-term deal and over $8 million on the open market.

San Jose is loaded, so Meier’s breakout season flew in a bit under the radar. It’s easy to fall into the shadows when Brent Burns, Erik Karlsson, Logan Couture, Joe Pavelski, Evander Kane, and Tomas Hertl are all around. Not to mention the timeless Joe Thornton.

But guess who led the Sharks in five-on-five points last year? That would be Meier, with 47. He also led them at five-on-five in goals (22) and individual expected goals (19.84). Meier turns 23 in October, so his best days are ahead of him.

He hasn’t gotten much power-play yet, which could change with the departure of Pavelski. If Meier gets consistent power-play time with the Sharks, he could get into point per game territory. He got 66 points in 78 games despite averaging just 1:08 per game on the power play.

Meier generates offense at a borderline elite rate. He finished in the top five in five-on-five shots per hour and only Brendan Gallagher had more individual expected goals per hour. Meier also finished just inside the top 20 forwards in five-on-five points per hour (2.66).

You could argue Meier was the Sharks best forward last season. Next season, there might not be an argument against him being their best forward. Yet virtually no one’s talking about Meier. That should change very quickly once the season starts.