Toronto Maple Leafs: Cap situation isn’t as bad as it seems

After the Toronto Maple Leafs signed Mitch Marner to his mega-deal, there was obvious concern about the cap space. But how bad is it really?

Currently, the Toronto Maple Leafs have a cap hit of $95.5 million, with $13.7 million in overages. This means that they are slightly over what they are allowed to spend by $300k (roughly). Sending down third-string goalie Kasimir Kaskisuo would give the Leafs enough room to work with.

That being said, they should be more than set to start the season just fine. Eventually, however, Zach Hyman and Travis Dermott are both eligible to return to action at some point (combined for a little over $3 million). This means that the Leafs must free up over $3 million to bring those two players back off of injured reserve list.

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Alexander Kerfoot, Andreas Johnsson and Kasperi Kapanen all have cap hits that are favorable in a trade, as well as being enough to bring back those players. However, it’s unlikely any of those three guys get dealt. Kerfoot was recently acquired via trade and both Johnsson and Kapanen were re-signed.

The next lowest cap hits below those three players are under $1 million. The next highest cap hit above those three players? William Nylander, Auston Matthews, John Tavares, and Mitch Marner. There isn’t a whole lot of flexibility, in terms of making enough room for Zach Hyman.

There is arguably only one solution – trade Hyman. After that, Dermott is on his entry-level contract, making it far easier to open up the room to bring him back. But the biggest problem for the Leafs salary cap is next offseason. More specifically, their defense.

Morgan Reilly is the only Leafs defenseman under contract for the 2020-21 NHL season. Tyson Barrie, Jake Muzzin, Cody Ceci, Ben Harpur, Jordan Schmaltz, Martin Marincin, Justin Holl and Travis Dermott are all free agents at the conclusion of this season. The Leafs also have three forwards and a goalie expiring at the end of the season, but they likely won’t garner much from a contractual perspective.

So for the sake of this article, let’s look solely at what’s on the blueline. Keeping in mind the rising cap, which according to Elliotte Friedmann is projected currently at $84.5 million, would give the Leafs about $18 million of cap space. The Leafs have solid defensive prospects in Timothy Liljegren and Rasmus Sandin who are both capable of playing this season, and certainly next season.

Calling them up would ultimately cost roughly $1.8M, but allows them to release two or more of their current NHLers. That leaves the Leafs with roughly $16.2M in free space. Barrie will likely cost a lot, especially following his $5.5M contract (that was retained 50% by Colorado).

It would come as no surprise if Barrie, who would be 29 by next off-season, would ask for upwards of $6M. That leaves them with no more than $10.2M in free space, with just Reilly, Barrie, Liljegren and Sandin under contract. Marincin and Holl would be cheap additions, but they aren’t yet ready to play in a top-4 role.

Additionally, it’s tough to see, currently, if Sandin and Liljegren can play top-4 minutes, so it would be safe for the Leafs to have a flexible bottom-4 defender. Jake Muzzin is currently getting paid an average of $4 million per season. He could easily earn upwards of $5 million, which would leave the Leafs with no more than $5.2 million to re-sign Marincin and Holl as their 6th and 7th defensemen, for about $1 million each.

This leaves no more than $3.2M to bring back Michael Hutchinson, Jason Spezza, Nick Shore, and Ilya Mikheyev.

So to answer many people’s questions and concerns about the Leafs – next offseason is more than doable, so long as Dubas plays his cards right and the league comes through with their projected cap space next season. But who cares about next off-season, right? Hockey’s back, so let’s enjoy it!