Tampa Bay Lightning: Top 4 reasons they have struggled this season

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The Tampa Bay Lightning have followed up their historically good 62-win 2018-19 season with a mediocre record through 27 games in 2019-20, sitting at 14-10-3. It begs the question, what’s going wrong in Tampa Bay?

When you looked at the Tampa Bay Lightning last season, they were dominant from top to bottom. The Lightning had elite forwards and defensemen. They also having the Vezina Trophy-winning goaltender Andrei Vasilevskiy. Before this season began, the Lightning gave up very little, in the form of JT Miller, Adam Erne, Ryan Callahan, and Dan Girardi, while adding Stanley Cup-winning Patrick Maroon and the recently bought out, but still solid, Kevin Shattenkirk.

Meanwhile, they re-signed Brayden Point, Cedric Paquette, and Braydon Coburn, and called up young AHL stud Carter Verhaeghe. Plus, the Lightning made some minor additions, signing Gemel Smith and Luke Witkowski, which showed they wanted to solve their issue of not being heavy enough to win in the postseason.

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You’d think that the addition by subtraction ideology put into place by general manager Julien BriseBois would have paid major dividends. He added experience while retaining major core pieces and instilling some youth and further solidified the defensive depth, even when it wasn’t deemed necessary.

This season, certain players have stepped up their games. For example, Ondrej Palat had one of, if not, the worst season of his career last year, yet this season he looks far better. The criminally underrated Alex Killorn has given Lightning fans a reason to give him more respect than what was previously shown.

Shattenkirk, who they brought in for this season as previously mentioned, but he has also proven to be far better than he was last season. So, again, what has gone so horribly wrong? Let’s take a look at the top four reasons why the Bolts haven’t been the juggernaut everyone expected them to be this season.

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Injuries

Everyone’s least favorite part of sports is the price athletes pay in the form of injuries. One of the biggest factors in Tampa Bay’s success last season was the lack of those injuries.

To calculate how many games missed because of injuries, which we combine every game missed due to injuries between all players, and that gives us what is called “man-games lost.” But before we get into man-games lost, let’s look at how many of their players played the entire 82-game season last year and how many are currently on pace to do so.

Last year, five Lightning players played in all 82 games, with eight players finishing with over 80 games played. This season, just 27 games in, there are just seven players left that could finish with a full 82-game season.

Which brings us to man-games lost. Last season, the Lightning had 153 man-games lost, with just one player (Anton Stralman) racking up 35 missed games due to injury. Currently, the Lightning are on pace for 82 man-games lost, which inevitably will continue to rise throughout the season. Again, at just 27 games into the season, that’s a high number.

What’s more important to note is this – who were the players that got injured? Last season, Nikita Kucherov, Steven Stamkos, Ryan McDonagh, Brayden Point, and Victor Hedman combined to miss 15 games. This season, they’ve combined to miss nine so far. Again, we are just 27 games into the season.

Not to mention, only Point and Hedman missed time last season with injuries, while all but McDonagh has been out at least one game from injuries this year. The main core of players stayed relatively healthy last season, but this season it has not been the case.

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Fast Starts Not Being Sustained

The Lightning have played 12 home games and 15 away games this season. At home, they’ve scored the opening goal nine times. In doing so, they won six of those games. However, in the three games that they did not score, they wound up losing each time.

In their 15 away games, they scored the first goal seven times, winning four of them. But in the eight games where they didn’t score first, they’ve only won four times. Now, that doesn’t show much in the way that their fast starts aren’t sustained.

But this will paint a better picture. The Lightning have outscored their opponents 33 to 19 in the first period. They have ended 51.8% of their games with a first-period lead, and 7.4% of their games being outscored in the first. That’s an overwhelmingly clear sign that the Lightning very often jump out to a quick lead.

As for their second-period performance, the Lightning have scored 30 goals, while allowing 30. When entering the second period with a lead, the Lightning have scored 13 goals to 13. When entering the second period tied, the Lightning get outscored 15-17.

Meanwhile, when entering the second-period losing, the Lightning outscored their opponents 2-0. They’ve been outscored in the second period in 11 of their 27 games. What that shows is they struggle playing with a lead and only have positive outcomes when they need it the most – in a game where they play from behind.

As for the third period, they have scored 37 goals while allowing 34. In games where they enter the final frame with a lead, they tend to put it out of reach, outscoring opponents 23-15. In games where it’s tied heading into the third period, they get outscored 7-8. Meanwhile, when they are playing from behind to start the third period, they get outscored 7-11. They outscored their opponents in the final period in 11 games while getting outscored in 10 games.

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Powerplay Opportunities Missed

The Lightning have been successful on the powerplay, with a success rate of 30%. At home, their percentage rises to 34.7%, while on the road it drops to 24.4%. Yet, 24.4% is still a very good mark, so what exactly am I hinting at?

Of the 27 total power-play goals that the Lightning have scored, just 10 of them gave them the lead and 5 of them tied it. What that means is 55.6% of their power-play goals paid huge dividends in the game. One of their power-play goals came when they were already far behind in a game, and was deemed “too little, too late.”

Ultimately, 40.7%, or 11, of the Lightning’s power-play goals extended an already established lead. Of Tampa’s 63 failed power-play attempts, 90.5%, or 57 of them, came in a close game. What that means is that 57 times, Tampa had a crucial power play to either extend a lead in a tight game or tie it up, but failed. Timeliness of each goal truly matters, and the Lightning have failed thus far to take advantage of those crucial power play opportunities.

Just a side note, in the nine games in which Tampa failed to score a power-play goal, they’ve lost seven times. Meanwhile, in the 13 games where they scored one power-play goal, they’ve won seven times. Finally, in the five games in which Tampa scored upwards of two power-play goals, they are undefeated. It really goes to show that Tampa’s power play is a testament to their on-ice success, and it’s the timeliness that matters, not so much the volume in which the goals come.

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Andrei Vasilevskiy

The reigning, defending, undisputed Vezina trophy winner from last season is a problem? You read that right, folks. Now, I’m not saying that he is to blame, and I’m not saying the Lightning should move on and find someone new. Vasilevskiy is an incredible talent in net, and he’s young, so he is absolutely the goalie of the present and foreseeable future in Tampa Bay.

This season, however, has by far been his worst. Vasilevskiy has started 20 games with an 11-8-1 record, to go along with a .907% save percentage and a 2.91 goals-against average. Out of his 20 games, he has had just 10 quality starts. For those that don’t know, quality starts are games where a goalie posts an above-average save percentage or a .850% save percentage on 20 or fewer shots.

Another telling stat is Goals Saved Above Average. Last season, Vasilevskiy’s GSAA was 26.40, meaning he saved roughly 26 more goals than the league average. This season, he has been at the other end of the spectrum, posting a -1.37 GSAA.

He has struggled in every single situation as well. He has posted career-lows in even-strength save percentage (.900%), power-play save percentage (.880%, which is awful considering the past 2 seasons he has posted above a .950% in this area), and short-handed save percentage (.852%).

The blame doesn’t fall entirely on Vasilevskiy, of course. The Lightning swapped out their backup Louis Domingue from last season to Curtis McElhinney this season. Last year, McElhinney had a better save percentage, GAA, GSAA, and more quality starts. He also played more games (33) than Domingue (26).

The most important thing, however, is whether or not your backup can win games, regardless of their statistics. That’s where Domingue trumped McElhinney, as he won 21 of his 26 starts to McElhinney’s 20 in 33.

This season, while Domingue has struggled mightily in New Jersey, McElhinney has also struggled in Tampa. In 7 starts, McElhinney has gone 3-2-2, with a .908% save percentage (lowest marks since 2015-16), 3.42 GAA (worst GAA since 2008-09) and a -0.4 GSAA (worst since 2015-16).

Ultimately, the Lightning have two strong goaltenders, yet for whatever reason (likely the extremely questionable defensive zone mistakes) those strong goalies have put up terrible numbers compared to previous seasons.

To conclude, there are a lot of things that the Lightning need to improve in order to get back to the level of play they had last season. This season’s mediocre play does not negate the fact that GM BriseBois made all the right moves prior to the season. It takes a spark to get this team back on track. It takes more than just the dominant first period starts. Their defensive zone coverage to improve ever-so-slightly to allow their goaltenders to get back to what they are known for, and that’s strong, consistent play.

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It takes scoring power-play goals in a timely manner, so they don’t have many more missed opportunities. Finally, it takes something that they cannot control, and that’s health – maybe not for the entire team, but to those core players which I mentioned at the beginning of this piece. These things are crucial, especially now, as the Atlantic Division is at its most competitive state. They cannot afford to lose any more ground.

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