Colorado Avalanche: Top 3 takeaways from Cale Makar’s rookie season
With Cale Makar’s first full NHL season likely wrapped up, let’s take a look at how well the Colorado Avalanche’s rookie defenseman did in his first year.
The Colorado Avalanche made a bold choice in the 2017 NHL Draft. With the fourth overall pick, they went a bit off the board by drafting defenseman Cale Makar, who was ranked the ninth-best North American skater at the time. Though he was the highest ranked defenseman on the board at the time, it was still a somewhat questionable move.
Since then, Makar has made the Avalanche look really smart. He has emerged as one of the gems of the 2017 draft. If you redrafted the 2017 draft today, there’s a good chance Makar would go somewhere in the top three. At worst, he’d still be fourth.
After making an impressive debut during the 2019 Stanley Cup Playoffs, the Avalanche had high hopes for Makar going in to the 2019-20 NHL season. Not only did he meet those high expectations, he exceeded them.
Had it not been for injuries, Makar might be the Calder Trophy favorite. And he still might win it, though Quinn Hughes is certainly deserving as well. I’d personally have Hughes ever so slightly ahead of Makar because of the huge role Hughes played for the Canucks, but Makar would be a deserving winner as well.
Makar’s rookie season was a historic one, as he set franchise records for points, goals, and assists from a rookie defenseman. But just how good was Makar in his rookie season? Here are three takeaways from his brilliant rookie season.
1. Power Play Proficiency
Makar’s calling card has always been his ability to create offense on power plays. He has been outstanding at the point at every level, so the Avalanche assumed it would translate to the NHL, and it has.
In his first rookie season, Makar is tied for ninth in the league among defensemen in power play points with 19. He’s also tied for ninth with Victor Hedman in power play goals with four. However, this was largely due to getting a lot of power play time. Only three defensemen averaged more power play time per game than Makar. Among the 87 defensemen who spent at least 50 minutes on the power play, he ranked 23rd in power play points per hour.
That’s still pretty good, but it’s not elite. Makar has all the tools to be an elite power play quarterback. While his raw numbers are a bit deceiving, he still had a very nice year on the power play.
2. 5v5 Scoring
While Makar’s power play production wasn’t as great as initially thought, he was extremely impressive at 5v5. The Avalanche put him in offensive situations early and often, as he has started 62.99% of his 5v5 faceoffs in the offensive zone. That’s the fifth-highest rate in the league, which isn’t surprising considering Makar’s a rookie and he’s quite young.
Anyone can be given a ton of offensive zone time, but not everyone can produce in those circumstances. This wasn’t the case with Makar. It’s undeniable his generous deployment plays a role in this, but the fact remains no defenseman has more 5v5 points per hour this season than Makar (minimum 500 minutes).
His individual point percentage of 49.12 shows how involved he has been when the Avalanche are on offense. Makar’s a defenseman and he’s one of their most gifted offensive players. There aren’t too many defensemen who you can say that about.
The Avalanche got a lot of offense from Makar. They’ll need him to continue to grow. Makar will need to remain extremely productive even while getting less favorable deployment. He’s proven he deserves more playing time and his underlying stats suggest he’s deserving of tougher minutes. Now it’s up to Makar to take his game to an even higher level. If he can do that, he’ll be squarely in the Norris Trophy discussion.
3. Makar Has The Tools To Be A Franchise Defenseman
There are very few franchise defensemen in the NHL. Victor Hedman, John Carlson, Roman Josi, and Brent Burns are just a few. While Makar isn’t quite in that tier yet, he’s remarkably close to it after his rookie season.
Makar will need to keep improving and keep doing what he has been doing in order to get into that tier. You don’t become a franchise defenseman in one season. Rather, you become one by consistently being your team’s top defenseman. You could certainly make a strong case Makar has been Colorado’s best defenseman this season.
His production obviously gets most of the attention, and rightfully so. But Makar’s underlying stats are also impressive. He leads the Avalanche in the following stats. All stats are courtesy of Natural Stat Trick.
- Relative 5v5 CorsiFor % (+1.57%)
- Relative 5v5 expected goals for percentage (+4.14%)
Makar also ranked in the top three in most other categories. While his relative numbers weren’t elite, they were still great and it’s worth noting the Avalanche are eighth in the NHL in CF%. It’s hard to make a huge relative impact when your team is already a top 10 shot attempts team. If you want to know why I’d give Hughes my first place Calder vote over Makar, it’s largely because Hughes has more impressive underlying stats while still maintaining an impressive level of production.
No matter what metric you look at, it’s difficult to not come away impressed with how well Makar did in his rookie season. He played with the maturity of a veteran and he’s only 21 years old. The sky is the limit with Makar.
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His next step will be an extremely difficult one. He’s already proven he’s a great defenseman. But can he be an elite defenseman? If I were a betting man (and I am not one), I’d wager the answer to that question is “yes”. But only time will tell.