Pittsburgh Penguins should pursue Dustin Byfuglien

The Pittsburgh Penguins are one of the teams who should be going after free agent defenseman Dustin Byfuglien.

As I wrote last week, I feel that it is in the Pittsburgh Penguins best interest to let Justin Schultz walk as a UFA this upcoming off-season. A potential replacement for Schultz is now on the market for the 2020-21 campaign.

Last Friday, defenseman Dustin Byfuglien and the Winnipeg Jets concluded their lengthy standoff. Both sides agreed to mutually terminate his contract.

Now, this is a complicated situation. There are risks. From an outside perspective, Byfuglien appears to be a complicated man. Byfuglien had ankle surgery in October 2019 and it has been a long recovery process. Byfuglien is now a free agent and able to sign with any team for the 2020-21 league year.

In the event that the 2019-20 season he returns, Byfuglien is NOT eligible to play. That is assuming that he wants to return at all.

Here is a condensed timeline of how this situation has played out since September of 2019.

As Micah Blake McCurdy of Hockey Viz points out, Byfuglien would likely make a contending team better.

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At this point, I reckon Byfuglien would be better Kris Letang insurance than Schultz. Prior to the 2018-19 season, Schultz has dealt with more injuries and missed more games over a three-year span. Byfuglien has spent the large majority of his career in a top-four role. The data suggests he has done a pretty good job.

Over the course of the 2016-17, 2017-18, and 2018-19 campaigns, Byfuglien’s three most common defense partners were Josh Morrissey, Ben Chiarot, and Toby Enstrom.

When Byfuglien was on the ice with all three of these defenders, the Jets generated the majority of the shot attempts, scoring chances, expected goals, and goal share during even-strength play.

When you adjust the Natural Stat Trick data to account for the score and venue during 5on5 play, Byfuglien’s numbers look even better. With him on the ice for 3,696 minutes over that same time span, the Jets have generated the following numbers.

• 51% of the shot share
• 52.5% of the scoring chances
• 52.9% of the expected goal share

If Pittsburgh can trade at least one of Nick Bjugstad or Jack Johnson before next season, then they could be in the running to sign Byfuglien. After missing the entire 2019-20 season, I can’t imagine his contract demands being outrageous.

It is a risk and he is on the wrong side of 30, but I feel this is a risk worth taking for the Penguins. They are in win-now mode. Adding Byfuglien to this roster would be a nice luxury.

Courtesy of Evolving Hockey, here is a look at Byfuglien’s skater shot chart over the three-year span of 2016-19. He has been a defenseman over this timespan.

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As you can see above, Byfuglien has generated a large volume of his shot attempts over the last three years from the slot and net-front. Some of that can be attributed to playing with high-end playmaking forward talents such as Mark Scheifele, Blake Wheeler, and Nikolaj Ehlers. He played as a forward in the early days of his career. Now as an offensive defenseman, he still has that knack for the net.

If Byfuglien were to become a Penguin, he would be playing with high-end forwards here as well. Sidney Crosby, Evgeni Malkin, and Jake Guentzel can distribute the puck quite well. At 6-5 and 260 pounds, Byfuglien possesses the skating ability and hockey sense to tilt the ice in the Penguins’ favor. His booming slap shot would be a welcomed addition to the second powerplay unit.

During his time in Atlanta, Chicago, and Winnipeg, Byfuglien has made over 40 million dollars in his career. If he wants to continue playing and is hungry for a second Stanley Cup ring, his next stop, and his fourth team should be the Penguins.