Stanley Cup Playoffs: New York Islanders versus Florida Panthers series preview
Matchups
How do these two teams matchup against each other? Let’s break it down by position.
Forwards
The Islanders are led by Mathew Barzal, who is one of the most lethally skilled players in the league with 60 points in 68 games this season. He won the Fastest Skater Competition at his first NHL All-Star Skills Competition, beating two-time reigning champion Connor McDavid.
Brock Nelson quietly had a very strong year, tieing his career-high in goals with 26 and posting a career-high with 54. Team captain Anders Lee had a down year as far as production (20 goals and 43 points in 68 games), but posted outstanding underlying stats. From a possession standpoint, Jordan Eberle was their most effective forward.
Josh Bailey finished the season with 43 points in 68 games. Anthony Beauvillier was inconsistent at times, but had his best year as a pro with 38 points in 68 games. Derick Brassard signed a cheap deal last summer and proved to be worth it, as he put up 32 points in 66 games.
The Islanders bottom six doesn’t produce much, but they are strong defensively. This especially rings true for Casey Cizikas, Matt Martin, and Cal Clutterbuck.
On the other side of the ice, the Panthers are led by an impressive duo of forwards in Aleksander Barkov and Jonathan Huberdeau. Barkov had his fifth straight season with at least 20 goals and his third straight season with at least 60 points, putting up 62 points in 68 games. He also averaged over 20 minutes of ice time per game for the third straight season. Considering the tough minutes Barkov played, his underlying stats were pretty good.
Huberdeau followed up his breakout season in 2018-19 with another impressive year, as he put up 23 goals and 55 assists for 78 points in 69 games. He actually had more points per game this season (1.13) than last season (1.12). Huberdeau posted solid underlying numbers as well. Evgenii Dadonov had another quietly solid season for the Panthers with 25 goals and 47 points. Mike Hoffman did the same with 29 goals and 59 points.
Brett Connolly proved his numbers in Washington weren’t a fluke with 33 points in 69 games despite playing in a limited role and Noel Acciari had a goals to assists ratio (20 to 7) that you’d love to see from a Cy Young contender.
Advantage: Panthers. I like their bottom six more than the Islanders.
Defensemen
The Islanders bread and butter is their defense. Head coach Barry Trotz is famous for having defensively strong teams and the Isles are no different. Ryan Pulock will be getting a nice raise this season after he emerged as arguably the Isles’ best defenseman. Devon Toews is quietly a pretty darn good top-four defenseman and Nick Leddy had a decent season.
Adam Pelech suffered an injury that cost him most of his season, but the Islanders will be getting him back, which is great news for them. Noah Dobson got more playing time as the season went along and it appears Trotz finally trusts him, albeit only in a third-pairing role. It’ll be interesting to see who sits between Scott Mayfield, Dobson, Andy Greene, and Johnny Boychuk. That’s a really nice problem to have.
Last season, the Panthers were a disaster in their own zone. This season, they weren’t too much better, but they did show some noticeable improvement. Keith Yandle continues to be durable and continues to put up solid numbers (45 points in 69 games), though his previously strong underlying numbers have been declining as of late.
Aaron Ekblad posted outstanding possession numbers and also had 41 points in 67 games. It appears he’s over his concussion issues for the time being, which is wonderful to see because he’s a great player. MacKenzie Weegar had the best 5v5 relative expected goals for percentage on the Panthers in a top-four role. Josh Brown put up solid numbers in a third-pairing role. However, Michael Matheson and Anton Stralman both struggled immensely.
Advantage: Islanders
Goaltending
The Islanders have a huge advantage here. Semyon Varlamov and Thomas Greiss weren’t able to do what Robin Lehner did, but they were still pretty darn good. However, both struggled after the All-Star break. Maybe the hiatus was a good thing for them.
I certainly trust both Varlamov and Greiss more than I trust Sergei Bobrovsky at this point. Bobrovsky’s numbers have been declining for three straight years. He’s capable of stealing games, but this season, Bob hasn’t looked anything like a goalie who has won two Norris Trophies.
Advantage: Islanders
Special Teams
The Panthers have a better PP, but the Islanders have a better PK. I trust Florida’s PK slightly more than I trust the Isles’ PP, so the advantage goes to Florida.