Stanley Cup Playoffs roundtable: First round predictions
Here are our staff predictions for the first-round series of the Stanley Cup Playoffs.
On August 11, an unprecedented Stanley Cup Playoffs will officially begin. The field of 24 teams has been whittled down to 16 teams. With the play-in round already over, the real NHL postseason can begin.
Here are our staff predictions for each of the first round series.
(8) Montreal Canadiens vs (1) Philadelphia Flyers
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Michael Dotson: We all know Carey Price can steal a series. Can he do it again? The Flyers just outscored the best 3 teams in the Eastern Conference 11-3 but could be missing Voracek one of their leading scorers to start the series.
Both teams were out of the playoffs in 2019 so this is uncharted playoff territory for both teams. The Canadians need to win one or both games to start the series to have a shot. They also need to slow this Flyers team down and finish checks. Eventually, though, the Canadians will run out of gas with Price.
Dave Stevenson: I think Montreal presents an interesting challenge for the Flyers. Both teams rely on puck possession and the Habs showed how dangerous they can be against the Penguins. But the Flyers are going to win this series in six games.
Jasmine Yen: I love the Flyers this year and they are my favorite to win the Cup. They’re going to make quick work of the Canadiens in 5 games because I believe Carey Price will steal one game.
Brendan Semon: Flyers will advance due to having a significantly better roster that features scoring from all four lines, elite goaltending, and lockdown defense. They’re also the hottest team entering the playoffs
Alex Baumgartner: After knocking off the top seed in the qualifying round, Montreal looks to do the same in round 1 against Philly. Carey Price has been a brick wall so far. Montreal in 5.
Matt McGinnis: The Canadiens will have a great deal of confidence after taking down the Pittsburgh Penguins, but the Flyers sailed through the Eastern Conference round robin games. Philadelphia has been playing at an elite level and will put down a second upset bid by the Habs.
(7) Columbus Blue Jackets vs (2) Tampa Bay Lightning
Michael: Last season the Blue Jackets stunned the hockey world by sweeping the Lightning the 2018-19 Presidents’ Trophy winners. Stamkos and Hedman aren’t healthy and if they play will they be effective? The Blue Jackets don’t beat themselves and are a typical Tortorella well-disciplined team.
Not sure this Lightning team is built for the grind of the NHL playoffs and having question marks for 2 of their top 4 scorers doesn’t help their cause. To have a chance in this series the Lightning need to play tough smash-mouth hockey because the Blue Jackets are near the bottom of the league in converting PP goals. Is that in Lightning DNA?
Dave: This isn’t the same team who beat the Lightning last season. But the Blue Jackets are still going to put up quite a fight. Lightning in seven.
Jasmine: With Steven Stamkos and Victor Hedman out, it will be very hard for the Lightning to win. Especially since they’re built so similarly to the Maple Leafs. The Blue Jackets will take this series in 6 games.
Brendan: The Blue Jackets will trump Tampa once again after coming off of a huge win over the Maple Leafs. Tampa is still quivering from their 4-0 series loss a year ago, and with numerous injuries to key players, they’ll have a hard time dealing with the team that has unmatched coaching.
Alex: Hedman and Stamkos are still out of the lineup but Tampa is a deep team at both ends of the ice. They should be a tougher opponent for Columbus than Toronto. Tampa in 4.
Matt: The Bolts can’t lose to the Jackets two years in a row, right? I have my doubts, but Tampa Bay is such a talented team, and suffering back to back first-round exits just doesn’t seem right. This series will be closer than maybe it should be, but the Lightning will find a way.
(6) NY Islanders vs (3) Washington Capitals
Michael: The Capitals lost a game 7 double OT thriller in the first round last year. The Islanders swept the Penguins in the first round, then were swept by the Hurricanes in Round 2. Carlson should be ready for the series after sitting out the 3 round robin games.
Trotz obviously knows his former team very well but the Islanders don’t have the talent the Capitals have. Capitals are near the bottom in the NHL in penalty minutes but the Islanders are near the bottom of the NHL in PP goals. This means the Capitals can take liberties on the Islanders and not worry too much about the Islanders converting PP goals. Finally, the Cup window for the Capitals is starting to close for Ovechkin.
Dave: Capitals will win this series in six games.
Jasmine: Washington in 6 because I refuse to bet against Alex Ovechkin.
Brendan: While the Islanders give up very few goals against, they’ll be no match to Washington’s elite core. New York will put up a strong fight, but it won’t be enough to beat Ovechkin and co.
Alex: This should be a good series as Barry Trotz is coaching against his former team for the first time in the playoffs. Alex Ovechkin is still the best goal scorer in the league and he doesn’t look like he’s slowing down. Washington in 5.
Matt: Washington’s offense was quiet in the round-robin games, scoring no more than two goals in an outing. The Islanders’ defense stifled the Panthers’ offense in the Qualifiers, just as it did to Pittsburgh last season. Their shut down of high flying offenses continues here.
(5) Carolina Hurricanes vs (4) Boston Bruins
Michael: The Bruins come into this series losing all three round-robin games and the Hurricanes won all 3 of their games in the qualifying round against the Rangers. The Bruins need an answer for Aho and his 2.67 PPG average in the qualifying round. They were in game 7 of the Cup final last year and won the Presidents’ Trophy this season.
In a cruel twist of fate, they could be beaten in the first round by a very good Canes team. Is that Presidents’ Trophy jinxed? The Bruins are near the bottom in penalty minutes and the Canes are near the top of the league in PP goals so the Bruins need to stay out of the box to have a chance. The Bruins swept the Canes last season in the Eastern Conference Finals and the Canes haven’t forgotten.
Prediction: Hurricanes
Dave: Hurricanes in six.
Jasmine: Carolina will overwhelm the Bruins with their depth and take this series in 5. Tuukka Rask does not look good and the Bruins, in general, have not shown any reason to be scared of them.
Matt: Momentum is key in the playoffs, and despite the small sample size in this restart, these two teams are clearly trending in opposite directions. Boston is 0-3, Carolina is 3-0, and that will lead to the Hurricanes getting revenge for last year’s Eastern Conference Final.
Brendan: The Bruins are ice-cold entering the first round, whereas Carolina is hungry for more after sweeping the Rangers in the qualifiers. Carolina will be too hot and too fast to contain for the B’s, resulting in an early exit from the bubble.
Alex: The Hurricanes top players came to play in the qualifying round while Boston’s top line was held to just one point in the seeding matches. Hurricanes should have more momentum. Carolina in 5.
(8) Chicago Blackhawks vs (1) Vegas Golden Knights
Michael: Give credit to the Hawks with their first-round upset over inexperienced playoff Oilers. Toews played well and the Oilers couldn’t shut him down. Statistically, the teams are close with a slight advantage to the Golden Knights.
The Golden Knights do have a major weakness with their PK unit ranking near the bottom of the NHL. As luck would have it the Hawks are near the bottom of the NHL in PP goals. The Golden Knights beat 2 very good teams in the round-robin out west. There will be no letdown against the Hawks.
Prediction: Golden Knights
Dave: Golden Knights in five. Vegas has a much better defense than the Edmonton Oilers and they can match the Blackhawks firepower. Robin Lehner is a beast in net. And they’re getting Max Pacioretty back, which should help their scoring.
Jasmine: Vegas in 4, they’re such a well-rounded, dominant team that will completely overwhelm Chicago.
Alex: The Hawks already pulled off one series upset when they beat Edmonton. Kubalik, Toews and Kane will need to be dominant again if they want to beat this Vegas squad. Hawks in 5.
Matt: Both of these teams have scored their fair share of goals to this point in the restart. If one can continue scoring at a high rate it’s this Vegas team that averaged five goals per game in its round robin matchups. There is too much talent through the Golden Knights’ roster to not take this series.
(7) Arizona Coyotes vs (2) Colorado Avalanche
Michael: The Coyotes are the best-disciplined team in the NHL, having the fewest penalty minutes. They are also ranked 3rd in goals against and their PK is ranked 5th. Very respectable numbers to say the least. The Avs are ranked 3rd in goals for and 5th in goals against. Also impressive numbers.
This, however, is uncharted playoff waters for the Coyotes. Last season in round two of the playoffs, the Av’s had a game-tying goal taken away on a controversial offside call in Game 7 against the Sharks. They were that close to playing in the Western Conference finals. The Av’s are for real and they could be hoisting the Cup.
Prediction: Avalanche
Dave: The Avalanche are clearly the better team, but on the other hand, Darcy Kuemper is capable of stealing games for the Coyotes. I’ll go with the Avalanche in six games, but Kuemper will be the main reason why it goes to six games instead of four.
Jasmine: Colorado has one of the best players in the league (Nathan MacKinnon) and is one of my favorites for the Stanley Cup this year. Avalanche in 4.
Matt: Darcy Kuemper is more than capable of stealing games in this series, but the Colorado Avalanche may be the best team in the playoffs. Last year the Avs were top-heavy, but they upgraded their depth players and will be difficult to beat. In another matchup, the Coyotes could have advanced, but against Colorado, they will not.
Alex: The Avs have stars all across their lineup. With more offensive fire power than Arizona’s previous opponent Nashville, it could be too much for Arizona to handle. Colorado in 4.
(6) Calgary Flames vs. (3) Dallas Stars
Michael: You can bet the Flames are still upset about losing in the first round last season. They ran into a hot Avalanche team. They certainly would have won a round or two if they were playing Pacific division teams. Dallas has a stingy defense and is ranked 2nd in goals against in the NHL but they are ranked near the bottom for scoring goals.
Calgary is ranked near the top in special teams with a very good PK unit and PP unit. The Stars have the best two goalie tandem in the NHL with Bishop and Khudobin. The Flames get the hockey playoff grind which is hit or get hit.
This is a series that could go to a Game 7 OT to decide the winner. This series will most likely have the most penalties of any series per game.
Prediction: Flames
Dave: This should be a very close series, but I’ll give the edge to the Flames. The Stars literally haven’t played a good game of hockey in over seven months. Flames in seven.
Jasmine: Defense wins championships and Dallas is one of the stingiest teams in the league. It will be a hard-fought series but the Stars in 7.
Matt: If the Stars could only score more goals, they could probably be champions by this time, or at least favorites to win this year. With that said, their defensive prowess will be enough to take down the Flames, especially if guys like Benn, Seguin, and Pavelski can get something going offensively.
Alex: I wasn’t too impressed with Dallas’ play in the round robin, winning just one game in a shoot out. Calgary ran their way through Winnipeg and could catch The Stars by surprise with a few early goals. Calgary in 5.
(5) Vancouver Canucks vs (4) St. Louis Blues
Michael: Despite tons of injuries in their qualifying round against the Wild, the Canucks came out on top. They did it by pounding the Wild and killing off 13 straight penalties in games 2 and 3. They are speedy, well coached, and screened Wild goaltending with textbook precision. The Canucks are in the top 10 in scoring and ranked a very respectable 4th in PP goals.
The bad news for the Canucks is the Blues are a well-disciplined team ranked near the top for least penalty minutes and goals against. If the Canucks have any chance they need to convert PP goals while one of the Blues leaders of the PK unit is out of the bubble. Barbashev left the bubble for the birth of his first child.
Markstrom did not play well in games 1 and 4 against the Wild. The Blues defense is bigger and tougher than the Wild’s defense. A healthy Tarasenko could mean a sweep for the Blues.
Prediction: Blues
Dave: The Blues looked awful during the round-robin tournament. But in fairness, no one except the Flyers cared about it. Every round has one crazy upset and I have a gut feeling this one will be it. Canucks in seven.
Jasmine: St. Louis is one of the most complete teams in the league and they have no weaknesses. They are going to take care of the Canucks in 5 games.
Alex: The defending cup champions playoff experience will be huge against this young Vancouver team. Vancouver will need their big guys to contribute if they want to steal this series. St. Louis in 4.
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Matt: The Blues remind me of the 2017 Penguins in the sense that their title defense comes with a lineup similar to the one that won the Cup. However, the time off, and now a winless restart, makes me like the Blues less. Vancouver features some great young players and will continue to take a step forward by upending the defending champs.