NHL Free Agency: Top 3 players who could be offer sheet targets

With this year’s NHL free agency period being like no other, maybe teams will pursue these 3 players via an offer sheet.

Offer sheets are about as common as unicorns in the NHL. For some reason, teams are afraid to sign RFAs to offer sheets in NHL free agency. Maybe it’s because they’re scared of retribution. Perhaps they don’t want to rattle too many cages in the brotherhood of general managers.

Whatever the reason is, offer sheets are very rare. The last one signed before the Montreal Canadiens signed Carolina Hurricanes forward Sebastian Aho to one last summer was back in 2013. That’s baffling because offer sheets are a great way to get young players at cost-controlled prices.

In order to sign a player to an offer sheet, you have to have your appropriate draft picks, which are given to the other team if they choose not to match it. Here are the 2020 offseason compensation tiers.

$0 – $1,439,820: No compensation
$1,439,821 – $2,181,545: 2021 third round pick
$2,181,546 – $4,363,095: 2021 second round pick
$4,363,096 – $6,544,640: 2021 first and third round picks
$6,544,641 – $8,726,188: 2021 first, second, and third round picks
$8,726,189 – $10,907,735: Two first round picks*, 2021 second and third round picks
$10,907,736 and over: Four first round picks**

More from Puck Prose

*Two of the team’s next three first round picks
** Four of the team’s next five first round picks

The team must give up their own draft picks, so they can’t trade for other picks and use them. Also, a team can’t force a player to sign an offer sheet. If a player doesn’t want to sign it, he doesn’t have to. Otherwise, there would be pure chaos (though maybe that would be a good thing).

This offseason could see some teams at least try to sign players to offer sheets. Many teams are dangerously close to the cap ceiling because they’ve been operating under the assumption the salary cap ceiling will consistently rise.

Well, guess what? The salary cap ceiling is staying at $81.5 million for at least next season and maybe the 2021-22 season as well.

Certain teams are in a really good position to poach some talent. Let’s take a look at some offer sheet candidates.

Erik Cernak

Few teams are being hit harder by the flat salary cap ceiling than the Tampa Bay Lightning. They have $5,333,333 of projected cap space with 15 players signed. None of those players are Anthony Cirelli, Erik Cernak, or Mikhail Sergachev. Those are three huge RFAs. Three players who are playing significant roles on a team that might win the Stanley Cup.

The Lightning are going to make moves to try to clear enough cap space to sign all three. If teams let them, they will do that. But what if a team boldly tries to sign one of them to an offer sheet right off the bat?

Personally, I’d target Cirelli. He is putting up outstanding results in a third-line role and is likely ready for a huge promotion to the second line. Cirelli should have been a Selke Trophy finalist, as I had him third overall on my ballot. Anything in the $4,363,096 to $6,544,640 tier would be easily justifiable. You could probably justify up to about $7 million a year.

However, I think the Lightning would match a Cirelli offer sheet in a heartbeat. He’s way too important for them to leave, especially with Steven Stamkos’ unfortunately long history of injuries. The same goes for Sergachev. He’s a huge difference maker on their blueline.

So if any Bolts player gets hit with an offer sheet and they don’t match it, my money’s on Cernak, whose results suggest he’s at worst an above average second-pairing defenseman. He’s probably worth a 2021 first and third-round pick (though I wouldn’t give him over $5 million a year).

WARNING: New York Islanders fans, you might want to stop reading this article because you’re not going to like who my next two candidates are.

Ryan Pulock

The New York Islanders just came off a very impressive run to the Eastern Conference Final. Eventually, they became too beat up and fatigued to handle a very fast Tampa Bay Lightning squad. There’s no shame in that.

They won’t have much time to celebrate what they accomplished, as their attention must be turned to re-signing two key restricted free agents. The first of them is Ryan Pulock. Now, Pulock is arbitration-eligible. If he elects arbitration, he is not eligible to be signed to an offer sheet. But if the Islanders elect to go to arbitration with him, he’s still eligible.

Pulock’s coming off a two-year deal which paid him $2 million a year. According to Evolving Hockey, Pulock has the third-highest WAR (wins above replacement) among defensemen since the start of the 2018-19 season, which is when his deal started.

His expected WAR isn’t as great, as it has him 60th among defensemen during the same span, but that’s still in the 80th percentile. Plus, there are 30 teams and two defensemen on each top pairing. Do the math, Pulock’s still a top-pairing defenseman, even if he’s on the lower end.

Pulock deserves a long-term deal, but it’s going to be tough for the Islanders to give him one. Another team might be willing to do him a favor and give him that long-term deal. So why the heck wouldn’t the Islanders sign Pulock immediately? I’m glad you asked…

Mathew Barzal

Usually, I don’t advocate for signing RFAs to the highest offer sheet tier. Very few, if any, players are so good, they’d justify a team giving up four first-round picks in a five year span for them. If there are any players worth four first round picks, Mathew Barzal is on the shortlist.

Barzal will unquestionably be the top priority for the New York Islanders this offseason. He was third on the team in points during the Stanley Cup Playoffs with 17 points in 22 games. During the regular season, Barzal led the team with 60 points in 68 games. His 41 assists led the team and his 19 goals were third on the team, trailing only Brock Nelson (26 goals) and Anders Lee (20 goals).

However, the Islanders might not be able to match an offer sheet with a cap hit of over $10,907,736. Even if they do match it, they’d be at least $2 million over the cap ceiling. But in these troubling times, very few, if any teams, could afford that cap hit. Even an offer sheet with a $9.5 million cap hit would be very difficult to match for them.

If a team wants Barzal and/or Pulock, here’s some free advice. The moment you can sign either to an offer sheet, do it. If the Islanders are given the time to make moves to fit in both Pulock and Barzal, they will. Don’t let them have the time to do it. At the very least, force their hand early.

dark. Next. Top 5 Worst Hart Trophy Winners of All-Time

Now, with all of that said, watch nobody even try to sign anyone to an offer sheet. Wouldn’t shock me one bit. But fans can still get their hopes up. Maybe having three players on the market as good as Cernak, Pulock, and Barzal will encourage general managers to stop worrying about making their fellow general managers mad and go out there to improve their team.

Home/Free Agency