San Jose Sharks: Who Should Start in Goal This Season?

Advanced Statistics courtesy of Natural Stat Trick

When looking at a netminder’s worth, the common statistics tell part of the story, but not the whole thing. Let’s keep in mind that the San Jose Sharks allowed 30.6 shots per game last season, which led to the team allowing 225 goals, the third-highest in the NHL. Although the netminding was bad, the team did not do an outstanding job at protecting their goaltenders.

Let’s dive into some advanced statistics, all per Natural Stat Trick, taking a look at Jones first. Throughout his horrid season, Jones faced 1,140 shots, which comes out to 27.8 shots per game. He owned a -5.29 Goals Saved Above Average (GSAA) over the 41 games he played, while 339 of the shots he faced were High Danger Chances as he stopped 281 of them. He accumulated an .829 High Danger Save % (HDSV%) and a 1.49 High Danger GAA (HDGAA). His High Danger GSAA (HDGSAA) was a 3.20.

Devan Dubnyk, meanwhile, faced 849 shots last season in 30 games played, which comes out to 28.3 shots per game. He posted a -10.24 GSAA. Out of those 849 shots, 186 of them were High Danger Chances, with Dubnyk stopping 137. Those numbers equate to a .737 HDSV% and a 1.77 HDGAA. His HDGSAA was a -3.15, a major difference to that of Jones.

So this begs another question. What would you rather have, a goaltender with solid regular statistics who stops more of the High Danger Chances against or a goaltender that was weak in regards to regular statistics but stopped the Higher Danger Chances at an elevated rate?

I think we can all agree that we would rather have the latter.

Taking everything into consideration, I believe Devan Dubnyk gets the starting job. His High Danger stats are weaker than Jones’, but he has been the more consistent guy in net, having just one tough season over his last six campaigns.

For a team looking to get back to being a competitive force in the west, only a few years and a few players removed from dominancy, they will need both these netminders to step up. Given how this might not be a full 82-game season, each game will be more important than ever.

Head coach Bob Boughner, who became the Interim Coach last season for the final 37 games, has a tough decision to make. Under him the team played to a tune of 14-20-3, but the Sharks looked  better structurally, and that will only improve with a healthy Erik Karlsson manning the blueline.

And, while Karlsson may not be the same player he once was, having him healthy for the first time in a Sharks uniform will only help calm this entire group down. Do not forget that Patrick Marleau is back with the Sharks after three seasons and his leadership should help the young guys on the team take the necessary next steps in their careers.

But, if the San Jose Sharks are to make a quick return to the postseason then they will need good goaltending from both Martin Jones and Devan Dubnyk.