To Deal or Not to Deal: Blues Forward Vladimir Tarasenko

Salary Cap Space

The St. Louis Blues are in a tight situation when it comes to the salary cap for the 2022-2023 season. According to CapFriendly the Blues are set to have just over 9 million dollars to work with this off-season. The problem is they have some very key players eligible for new contracts that they do not currently have the cap space to bring back all their pieces. UFA top-line winger David Perron and RFA’s Scott Perunovich and Niko Mikkola who both spent time as a part of the Blues top defense pairing last season are both set to hit free agency on Wednesday July 13th when the free agency period opens up. The expectation is that the Blues will find a way to bring all three of these guys back but then that leaves little to no cap space for Doug Armstrong to add a potential blue liner via free agency or trade which the team desperately needs opposite of Colton Parayko.

Not to mention the Blues also have to think beyond this year. Captain Ryan O’Reilly is due for a new contract at the end of this season as well as young up and coming star forwards Jordan Kyrou and Robert Thomas are eligible for extensions. It is very likely that the Blues are going to want to bring back all three guys on pretty long and expensive contracts.

With all of these important pieces up for extension and such little salary cap space to work with, the Blues might have to off-load some of their heavy contracts in order to bring back some of their core. Vladimir Tarasenko is scheduled to be a UFA at the end of the 2022-2023 season and there is no guarantee that he will re-sign with St. Louis after the season, or if the Blues will even have the cap space to re-sign him. Trading him away now clears cap space needed to give Armstrong some much-needed flexibility and freedom to rework this roster both from within the organization and outside of it in free agency.

Tarasenko’s Trade Value

Blues General Manager Doug Armstrong has always been one of the best GMs in the league when it comes to evaluating talent in the trade market and maximizing a player’s return value in a trade. That is part of the reason why Tarasenko was not moved last year because Armstrong will not sell a player for less just to move him.

Teams, rightfully so, had some question marks about the Russian forward this time last year due to his injury history and inconsistent production over the previous two seasons playing in only 34 games from 2019-2021 and totaling 24 points in those games. NHL front offices were not willing to trade away valuable assets for a player that had played in less than 25% of games the past two seasons. However, this season Vladimir Tarasenko quieted all doubters playing in his most games (75) since the 2018-2019 season and totaling his highest point total (82) in a season during his entire career.

Because of the recent resurgence in point total and ability to stay healthy, this past season teams are once again willing to trade away some decent assets for Tarasenko. The question becomes just how much Armstrong can get another team to give up for a 30-year-old player with injury history in the final year of a contract that is set to pay him 5.5 million dollars this season.

Armstrong is not going to sell Tarasenko for lesser than his value just for the sake of trading him. He will want to maximize his value and bring back a haul that will continue to help the Blues in their Stanley Cup window. So a team is going to have to give Armstrong a package worth parting with one of his franchise’s biggest stars.

Time For The Young Guys

Vladimir Tarasenko has been a staple in the St. Louis Blues’ top 9 since he broke out in the league on a full-time basis in 2012-2013, and for good reason. There are very few players that can score from the angles that the 30-year-old Russian veteran can score from. But between the injuries, the age, and the potential salary cap savings… the Blues could look to turn towards some of their younger prospects to take the ice at Enterprise Center for the 2022-2023 season.

St. Louis had a variety of younger players play some critical roles for the team at various points throughout the season. Logan Brown, Nathan Walker, Dakota Joshua and Mackensie MacEachern all had starting forward minutes at various points throughout the season this year and could be floaters throughout the NHL lineup when the season takes place if they are still with the organization after free agency.

However, there are three notable names that were not mentioned in that group above that have a very high possibility to be playing in a St. Louis Blues roster on a consistent basis come October when the regular season gets underway. Among those names is second-year player Alexey Toropchenko. Toropchenko started in 28 games last season and impressed coaches and those within the organization with his high-effort skating, puck movement skills and consistent forechecking ability that the St. Louis Blues had struggles with at times during the regular season. The 23-year-old Russian also was an important part of the NHL’s 5th-ranked penalty kill when he finally got the call-up in March. He has almost certainly solidified a spot on the opening top 12 forwards.

The other two names that very much could see time early on for the Blues are former first-round picks Jake Neighbours and Zachary Bolduc. Neighbours, a first-round pick in the 2020 NHL Entry Draft got a 9-game trial with the team this past season and showcased his flashy skill and quick feet early and often in his limited time with the Blues. The team decided not to purchase his contract for the remainder of the regular season after the trial due to cap restraints. It is safe to say that if the Blues let go of one or both of Tarasenko and Perron that Neighbours is the favorite to take their roster spot. Bolduc on the other hand was the organization’s first-round pick in 2021 and could potentially get his chance to shine sometime during the 2022-2023 season as well.

With these young guys showcasing the ability to get NHL minutes, maybe the Blues feel they have a potential Tarasenko replacement already on the roster, which could mean Armstrong would be more willing to move him for the right price. There are however some risks and uncertainties that do come with moving a player of Vladimir Tarasenko’s caliber.

Losing the Production

It is easy for analysts and insiders to sit and dissect the salary cap numbers and break down contracts but the bottom line is trading away a highly productive player is not an easy decision, especially a player coming off a career season. It is not easy replacing a point-per-game player. That is what the St. Louis Blues would have to do if they decided to move Vladimir Tarasenko, who is coming off an 82-point season.

Now some may say that the Blues had 9 guys that scored over 20 goals last season, and the young guys coming up from the Springfield Thunderbirds and other minor league organizations like Neighbours and Bolduc very well could reach the ceiling of a Vladimir Tarasenko, that is not at all a guarantee. Tarasenko, when healthy, has been consistently at or around a point per game for the duration of his career. Even if those young guys have the ceiling of Tarasenko, it could take them a few seasons to potentially even get to that production threshold.  Even with the health issues, there is no denying the importance of Vladimir Tarasenko for the St. Louis Blues. There isn’t a player in the lineup that has the scoring pedigree and quick shot that number 91 has.

It is very hard to see a scenario where the Blues get equal value in terms of production in a trade involving Tarasenko. The likely scenario is getting some draft picks and a mid-level prospect or NHL’er which means the 82 points that the Blues will be losing if Tarasenko is moved will need to be completely replaced. That is a lot of points and production being lost from one single player.

Stanley Cup Window

The other glaring reason why Doug Armstrong and a lot of Blues fans are hesitant to trade Vladi is quite simple: This team can still win a Stanley Cup and is built to win another championship right now. St. Louis is coming off of a 109-point season in which they were the only team in the NHL that ranked top five in both power-play percentage and penalty kill percentage. There also is an argument that the Blues very well could have taken down the Avalanche in round two if Jordan Binnington did not suffer a knee injury in game three of the second round. The roster is fairly well-rounded, minus maybe a blue line defenseman pairing for Colton Parayko and is extremely well-coached by Craig Berube. Trading away a player that has been a cornerstone piece of the roster for the last decade in the midst of a Stanley Cup window definitely could be seen as counter-intuitive.

However, Doug Armstrong has always stated that his duty is to the St. Louis Blues and that is it. His job, as is any GM’s job is to look at the team and roster in the present day as it stands and plan for the future. Trading away Tarasenko this season might lose some production in the short term, but allow the team to secure up players and make the success and consistency of this team in the long-term. Doing so could expand the Blues’ Stanley Cup window to an even larger period of time, especially with Jordan Kyrou and Robert Thomas leading the charge at 24 and 23 years old respectively.

There is no telling which direction the St. Louis Blues are going to go, Doug Armstrong always keeps things very close to his chest and is not afraid to make any major trades as seen with his trades for Brayden Schenn, Ryan O’Reilly, Justin Faulk, and most recently Nick Leddy.  The Tarasenko sweepstakes are certainly going to be one of the most fascinating storylines to keep an eye on as the NHL off-season gets underway.