Two iconic World Juniors semifinals? As hockey fans, we got treated to seven hours of epic hockey last night.
From Sweden's late push in the overtime and shootout rounds against Finland to Czechia's third knockout win over Canada in as many tournaments, the 2026 World Juniors semifinal round won't be forgotten anytime soon.
But the gold medal game could easily still top that.
And it's already shaping out to be both iconic and full of firsts. Specifically, this gold medal game will be the first one in 13 years to not feature one of Canada, Finland, or the United States; the last such game was played between Sweden and Russia in the 2012 edition of the tournament. In addition, regardless of which team emerges victorious, the gold medal will be won by a European nation for the first time since the 2019 tournament, which saw Finland beat the United States.
In terms of the countries represented in the gold medal game, one medal drought will end upon the conclusion of the gold medal game. A Czechia gold medal would be the first such triumph since the Czechs took gold in 2001. However, if Sweden were to win, it would be their first gold medal since they beat Russia 1-0 in overtime of the 2012 tournament's gold medal game.
As Sweden had also earned a medal in two of the last four tournaments, the Swedes' appearance in the gold medal game guarantees a third medal in five editions. Meanwhile, Czechia's gold medal game berth will guarantee the Czechs a fourth-consecutive medal, having previously won silver in 2023 and then bronze in each of the last two tournaments.
It's also worth noting that the Czechs and Swedes have played each other in the knockout round of each of the last four tournaments. The first such meeting was in the 2022 bronze medal game, which saw Sweden beat Czechia 3-1. The meeting in 2023 would go the way of the Czechs; a Jirí Kulich goal in overtime would give Czechia a 2-1 win in the semifinal round. In the semifinal round of the 2024 tournament, Sweden would dominate Czechia to win 5-2 and advance to the gold medal game. And in 2025, Czechia would beat Sweden in a shootout to secure the bronze medal.
If the pattern holds, will we see Sweden will win gold in 2026? That is yet to be determined, but Sweden does have a strong case to take the gold medal.
Such strong case starts with the Swedes' play on offence, which has looked significantly better since the first two group stage games. Since scoring just seven goals through the first two games of the tournament, Sweden would put at least six behind the opposing goaltender in three of their next four games. In addition, their start-of-period play has looked phenomenal in recent games, scoring at will to keep the opposition on alert on defence.
That said, there's a catch-22. Finland was able to neutralize Sweden's opening period goals through effective five-on-five play and by creating better scoring chances for the majority of the game. Given that Czechia was more than capable of stopping both that same Finland team and a Canadian offence that had previously scored almost six-and-a-half goals per game, Sweden needs to be putting on the pressure on offence for all sixty minutes of play.
For Czechia, the offensive game plan will involve capitalizing on break-out opportunities and holding onto possession for longer periods of time. As Sweden has proven themselves capable of striking almost at will, Czechia will have to ensure that they bring the game to Sweden, hold the edge in terms of offence and that they can get on the board as early as possible. That would allow for Czechia to put the pressure on Sweden and to be in a better position to respond to Sweden's offensive chances, which would be a strategy similar to the one employed on Sunday against Canada.
While Sweden is unbeaten to this point, their place atop the World Juniors hierarchy thus far isn't exactly secure. We've seen Sweden struggle to hold a lead; such a characteristic has shown itself once more throughout the knockouts. Latvia had chances galore to flip a one-goal deficit throughout the first half of the game, while Finland was able to reverse each of Sweden's one-goal advantages in the semifinal. And considering that Sweden was several scoring chances and three botched shootout rounds away from losing to Finland, the margin the Swedes have to work with against Czechia should be constant, if not smaller.
I previously backed Czechia to win their group and get back to the gold medal game. While they didn't finish first in Group B, they did make good on their aim to get to the gold medal game. And no matter how this game ends, the Czechs are going to extend their ongoing medal streak to four tournaments, the best run in the country's junior hockey history.
I could easily back Sweden to pull away with this one, however Czechia has shown they can play on both ends of the ice; they've arguably done so better than ever at this year's tournament. I do think the Czechs will keep up with the Swedes, and I think they can do just enough in the final frame to secure their first gold medal in twenty years.
The pick: Czechia 4, Sweden 2