Sweden looks to reach their second gold medal game in three tournaments, while Canada-Czechia will be must-see TV

Preliminary Round - Group A, Game 19 United State vs Sweden - 2026 IIHF World Junior Hockey
Preliminary Round - Group A, Game 19 United State vs Sweden - 2026 IIHF World Junior Hockey | David Berding/GettyImages

Bad news first: there's only four games left in the 2026 World Juniors.

The good news: the semifinals and medal round games make up those remaining four games.

And oh golly are we in for a treat on Sunday.

At 3:30 PM CST, the action gets started when Sweden takes on Finland in what will be a rematch of their semifinal matchup from last year's edition of the World Juniors. Following that, Canada will take on Czechia for the third straight knockout tournament; puck drop in that game is set for 7:30 PM CST.

Let's break down each of the two semifinals and project the medal games for the World Juniors.

Sweden vs. Finland

For Finland and Sweden, it was a tale of two quarterfinal escapades.

On one hand, despite holding onto a slender lead for the first thirty minutes, Sweden was able to ride a late second period surge to a multi-goal lead against Latvia, eventually winning by a score of 6-3. On the other hand, Finland would upset the United States in a back-and-forth affair that would require overtime to settle; the Finns would win by a 4-3 scoreline.

While Sweden has been winning their past few games by relatively comfortable margins, Finland hasn't exactly had that luxury. Since winning their first two games against Latvia and Denmark by margins more sizeable than the leg room on Via Rail's new trains, Finland would lose their remaining two games while requiring overtime to finish off a weaker-than-before American outfit.

Even then, Finland has shown resilience over the past three games. Despite being down 1-0 for much of regulation against Czechia, Finland was able to break down a stout Czech defence and score with just seconds left in the third period. In the next game against Canada, despite losing by multiple goals, the first period would see Finland erase three one-goal deficits in succession. And against the United States, Finland would navigate two one-goal deficits to eventually take a 3-2 lead and eventually win in overtime.

The key here will be the margin between the two teams. Finland has been able to have their way with the tournament's top teams by keeping things close and striking in the big moments. And if they can do the same against Sweden, they should be able to emerge victorious and advance to their second-consecutive gold medal game.

The pick: Finland 3, Sweden 2

Canada vs. Czechia

Czechia vs Canada.

In the third straight knockout tournament, but this time with a gold medal game on the line.

For Czechia, a chance to get to their second gold medal game in four years. For Canada, a chance to avenge tournaments past and defeat their newest bogeyman.

How each team starts this game could be key. Czechia struggled off the line against Switzerland and was on upset watch for much of the first two periods. Then, Czechia went on a run of three goals in five minutes heading into the second intermission; the stretch also saw Czechia turn a 2-1 deficit into a 3-2 lead in just forty seconds. Considering that the TSN broadcast showed a fan in a wizard's hat after the second goal, you could call that magic.

Or it's Czechia suddenly being able to score. But I'll accept both ideas.

Unlike Czechia, Canada was basically in cruise control against Slovakia, running away with the win like it's Max Verstappen driving away into the sunset in 19 out of 22 races in the 2023 Formula One season. In Canada's case, the first period would see the Canadians race out to a 5-0 lead, which would eventually become a 7-1 victory.

Now I don't plan on joking about Slovakian forward Jan Chovan's pregame confidence and how that's probably getting clowned on social media. But hey, at least Slovakia only heard The Tragically Hip's "Courage" two times fewer than Denmark.

Czechia also probably knows that song all too well by now. And as this game might end up being a shootout, Czechia might have to hear it a couple more times.

On that note, if Czechia is to keep pace with Canada's high-flying offence, they will need to ensure they're producing some offence of their own in the opening period while also limiting Canada's chances. While Canada has scored at least three goals in the first period of each of the last three games, Czechia was able to limit Canada to just one goal in the first frame of their group stage game. Coming out of the second period, Czechia was level with Canada at a 3-3 scoreline; the Czechs also held a brief 3-2 lead during the second period.

This game will probably end up being a back-and-forth affair, one that is either decided in overtime or in the final few minutes of regulation. Even though Czechia had bounced back well from their opening day loss to Canada and could easily end up beating Canada for what would be the fourth time in six meetings, I'm backing Canada to score late and send Czechia to the bronze medal game for the third straight tournament.

The pick: Canada 6, Czechia 5

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