Nobody expected we would see a Connor McDavid extension coming this Monday morning but that’s what we got. Days before the puck drops on this season, McDavid and the Edmonton Oilers agreed on a two-year, $12.5 million average annual value deal. McDavid’s “market value” was expected to be $18.8 million. Greg Wyshynski wrote for ESPN that staying in Edmonton seemed like the most likely option and added that McDavid’s decision was based off of consideration of Edmonton’s cup window.
What would have been the most anticipated free agency in NHL history next summer has been put on ice. Even more surprising is that McDavid seemingly left millions on the table to stay in Edmonton a little longer. Why sign now for what he did when he did?
Were him and the Oilers waiting for the first domino to fall with the cap rising? Was that “first domino” Kirill Kaprizov committing to the Minnesota Wild with a big payday like he did last week? What was McDavid's motivation?
It’s an imperfect comparison, but compare McDavid’s hypothetical free agency frenzy to that of MLB superstar Shohei Ohtani a few seasons ago. Ohtani is a notoriously private person. That didn’t stop the sports world from focusing on his every move. People incorrectly tracked private jets they assumed were him. ESPN openly advocated for Ohtani to make it more of a media circus.
Could you see McDavid wanting any part of anything like that? Ohtani also had a reason to leave his old team as they perennial underachievers who had never made the playoffs. We can joke about Edmonton all we want, but they are a good team. That almost decade long playoff drought that made them draft lottery merchants and inspired ridicule from around the league is almost a decade in the past. They’ve found themselves in back to back Stanley Cup finals.
The Oilers are contending and McDavid knew they would pay him his worth. Unless he disliked Edmonton itself, why would he leave? It’s also worth noting the stories of fans harassing players, like what drew Mitch Marner to leave the Toronto Maple Leafs for the Vegas Golden Knights, is not something McDavid has complained about or talked about experiencing.
The deal’s term and value provide contradicting ideas on McDavid’s motivation. In two seasons, the cap is projected to go up by another almost $20 million. Was signing the short term deal just a holdover to get an even bigger payday? If so, why would he sign in the team friendly range of under $14 million average annual value? Then again, giving a hometown discount seems like something that would demonstrate his loyalty to Edmonton. A player's prime earning years might not necessarily coincide with cap increases that can see them earn even bigger paydays year after year. McDavid is in the exclusive few that can dictate those terms even as he gets older.
We once speculated about how Edmonton’s cup window coincides with McDavid’s then contract. This extension keeps that cup window wide open for another two seasons. Question is, will it close again in two years, or will it continue to stay open as McDavid stays in oil country for a bigger payday?