It's almost time for one of the most exciting dates circled on the hockey calendar, and there is still one group left to preview for the upcoming edition of the World Juniors.
While Group A features tournament powerhouses Sweden and the United States, Group B will undoubtedly bring the intrigue to the preliminary round of this year's World Junior Championship.
As Canada, Czechia, and Finland all feature in this group, there is a very strong chance that first-place in this group becomes a three-way battle between some of the more powerful hockey nations.
The countries in this group will be discussed in order of projected finish and each analysis will make mention of their 2025 finish, the X-Factors that will determine the direction of the group standings, a justification of my prediction, as well as what would characterize a successful tournament for each participating nation.
1. Czechia (10 points)
For Czechia, a successful tournament will start with topping a fairly-doable group. While Canada will be bringing its most talented roster since they won the gold medal in 2023, the Czechs have had the upper-hand on the Canadians in recent years.
Despite losing the gold medal game to Canada in 2023, it was Czechia who beat Canada 5-2 in their respective opening games of the tournament. And in each of the next two editions, Czechia would beat Canada by a goal (3-2 and 4-3) in each of the next two editions; both victories would come in the quarterfinal round.
If Czechia can win gold over an offensively-talented Canadian team, the two-time gold medallist United States, or even a Swedish team looking to get back to the junior hockey summit, that would certainly be the perfect cherry on top for a Czech hockey program that has worked their way back up the junior hockey mountain (their lowest finish since that 2001 gold was in 2011 in Buffalo) and one that hasn't seen gold at the World Juniors since 2001. At the same time, Czechia has seen the likes of David Pastrnak represent the nation at the World Juniors while also making a name for themselves at the club level.
The Czechs also have the roster to push for first in Group B. Of the 26 players initially selected, seventeen play their club hockey in Canada. In addition, many of the players heading to Minnesota will have appeared in tournaments past, particularly on the defensive end. Among others, St Louis Blues prospect Adam Jiricek will look to lead a Czech defence that conceded just nine goals across the last edition's four group games; it was the third-fewest goals conceded by any nation during the preliminary round. The knockout round would see the Czechs give up just nine goals over a three-game span; of the final-four teams in 2025 (Czechia, Sweden, Finland, and the United States), the nine goals conceded over that span would be the joint-second fewest alongside Sweden.
If Czechia can put together another strong showing on the defensive end of the ice and do just enough on the other end, the sky could be the limit for the Czechs. And not only should they top this group, but I could see Czechia making it to its second gold-medal game in four years.
2. Canada (10 points)
As much as I would love to put Canada in the top spot of the group, Czechia has had their way with Canada in recent years.
I referred to this when I talked about Czechia above, but of the four encounters between Canada and Czechia over the last three editions of the World Juniors, three were won by Czechia; the lone Canadian victory was in the 2023 gold medal game, which went into overtime.
How to do that? Score. Offensively, Canada is sending one of its better rosters, with Brady Martin and Gavin McKenna highlighting the roster being sent to Minneapolis, however an ability to convert chances into goals will be important.
I watched Canada's first pre-tournament game against Sweden, and while I was impressed with Sault Ste Marie Greyhounds forward Brady Martin's performance (he scored both of Canada's goals in the game), the Canadians had a decent amount of good chances that they just couldn't convert.
Now yes, I understand that's pre-tournament and that things really start to matter in the World Juniors when the puck drops on Boxing Day. However, the Canadians did also throw away a 2-1 lead against Sweden in their second pre-tournament game in London, Ontario, ultimately losing 4-2.
Even if the Canadians can't find a way to convert their chances, they should surely scrape through to the knockouts. However, they not only might not fare well against Czechia and Finland, but they might also be condemned to a third-consecutive quarterfinal exit, which might just make Canada's recent run of form at the World Juniors the most embarrassing since the early-80s.
If the Canadians are to call the 2025 World Juniors a success, they need to at least win a game in the knockouts. I understand that has no bearing on group-stage finish, however Canada will guarantee themselves a more favourable matchup with a better standing in Group B. Therefore, another expectation for Canada at this tournament should be a top-two finish in their group.
3. Finland (7 points)
The Finns' silver medal in the 2025 edition of the World Juniors marked the nation's fourth medal in the last seven tournaments, a run of form that started with the last of Finland's three gold medals won between 2014 and 2019.
That medal came even in spite of a slow start to the tournament, which saw the Finns lose their opening match 4-0 to Canada.
This time around, things might not be as simple. Only Canada and Latvia ended up in the same group as Finland, so they'll have to contend with a promoted Danish side and a Czech team that could be the most dangerous outfit at this edition of the World Juniors.
And considering that Latvia stunned Canada, beat Germany in overtime at the last World Juniors, and had a decent-but-losing effort against Finland, let's call this Group B the tournament's "Group of Death."
4. Latvia (3 points)
As part of a 2025 tournament that will arguably be seen as the nation's best-ever World Juniors performance, Latvia pulled off one of the biggest upsets in tournament history, beating Canada in a shootout in the preliminary round. Alongside an overtime victory against Germany, that result would be significant in getting Latvia to its third knockout round appearance in four seasons since returning to the top division ahead of the 2022 edition.
While Latvia's entry hasn't found a way to produce a knockout round win yet, they did come close to doing so in the last edition of the tournament, falling 3-2 to Sweden in the quarterfinals.
This time around, they'll have another tough-but-somewhat-manageable road to the knockouts: a rematch with Canada on the 27th, an encounter with last year's runner-up Finland on the 28th, a must-win against Denmark on the 30th, and a New Year's Eve encounter with Czechia.
If Latvia is to get to its third-consecutive knockout round appearance, the goaltending will need to be performing at a similar level to that of last year, giving up just thirteen goals over a span of four group games (that was nine goals better than their 22 goals conceded in the group stage of the 2024 edition).
This time around, Latvia is going to be bringing three brand-new goaltenders, with Mikus Vecvanags, Nils Roberts Maurins, and Ivans Kufterins respectively earning their first World Junior call-ups. Despite some individual struggles at the club level, all three goalies have shown potential in some form and should be capable of taking on bigger workloads at the international level. That said, we'll need to see how exactly their style of play translates to the World Juniors' stage.
In all, a return trip to the knockouts should be the bare minimum for Latvia in this tournament, while a first-ever knockout round victory would immediately make their tournament a success.
5. Denmark (1 point)
For the first time since 2019, Denmark will be playing top division hockey at the World Juniors. Their return came on the heels of a first-place finish in Division I, the second tier of the World Junior Championship. Their reward? Being placed in arguably the tougher group of the two groups at the World Juniors.
Like with Latvia, the X-Factor for Denmark is going to be goaltending. With injuries and depth set to be key issues for the Danish lineup in this tournament, a lot is going to have to go right if Denmark is to make it through the relegation round.
That's going to have to start in the goaltending crease; if Denmark's goaltending can limit the damage inflicted by the group's powerhouse nations and give them a fighting chance in their must-win game against Latvia on New Year's Eve, the Danes could at least walk away from this group with a point.
From there, a little more might have to go their way. But the Danes have to get there first. And that is what a successful tournament for Denmark will look like: surviving relegation in some form, be it through a surprise knockout round appearance or through a relegation round victory.