Alexander Ovechkin: Career at a Crossroads

With the NHL season about to kick off in a matter of days, all eyes across the league are on Alexander Ovechkin and whether or not the Washington Capitals superstar can finally lead his team to a title.  There isn’t a player on any of the 30 teams that will have the pressure on him quite like Alexander the Great this season.

About to enter his tenth season, Alexander Ovechkin is coming to a crossroad at his Hall of Fame career.  The 29-year old has accomplished all one can individually- winning four Richard Trophies, three Hart Trophies, three Ted Lindsay Awards, and an Art Ross Trophy.  The career numbers are eye-popping: 679 regular season games, 422 goals, 392 assists, for a total of 814 points.  He has never scored less than 32 goals in a season (including the lockout-shortened 2012/13 season).  He has hit the 50-goal plateau five times, potting a career-high 65 in 2007/08.  He’s made seven 1st All Star Teams, three 2nd All Star Teams, and even made a 1st and 2nd All Star team in the same season at different positions.

But everyone knows the number that is haunting him: zero. As in zero Stanley Cups.  And at age 29, while certainly not at the end of his career, one has to wonder how many more prime seasons does Ovechkin have in him before he isn’t the same “Great Eight” we’re accustomed to seeing.

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Statistically, Ovechkin has been a strong playoff performer.  While his 61 points in 60 playoff games is not the same pace of his regular season totals, they certainly aren’t weak either.  However, it’s not the playoff numbers that leave people disappointed with Ovechkin.  It’s the constant playoff failures.  And not just failures, but spectacular failures.  Ovechkin’s Capitals have qualified for the playoffs in six of his nine seasons so far.  In only three of those years did he help his team advance past round one; never once past round two.

Yes, it’s a team game and of course it’s not all Ovechkin’s fault that his teams have struggled in the post-season.  But when you have $124,000,000 contract that carries a $9,538,462 annual cap hit, you’re the first one to shoulder the blame, fair or not.  It also doesn’t help Ovechkin’s reputation that his teams have won only two of seven game 7’s he’s participated in.  In those game 7’s, Ovechkin has tallied only two goals and two assists while the Capitals have been out-scored 20-10.  The worst of these was almost assuredly against the Penguins in the second round of the 2008/09 playoffs.  Playing at home after blowing 2-0 series lead, the Capitals laid an egg as the Penguins drubbed them 6-2 behind Sidney Crosby‘s two goals, one assist performance.  Ovechkin did manage to tally a goal after his team was trailing 5-0.  So much for that debate about who was the best player in the league.  Thank you, come again.

So why all the doom and gloom for a 29 year old?  Well, take a look at some of the greats to play this game: Wayne Gretzky, Mario Lemieux, Brett Hull, Jaromir Jagr, Eric Lindros.  Take a look at how they performed after their 29th birthday.  They didn’t fall off a cliff (well, Lindros did because of injuries), but what happnened?  Their best years came earlier in their careers.  So while I don’t foresee Ovechkin going from superstar to washed up overnight, it isn’t a stretch to suggest that we’ve already seen the best of Ovechkin, at least offensively, for his career.

Which brings me to my next issue: coach Barry Trotz.  No one questions Trotz’s pedigree from his time in Nashville.  However, his Nashville teams were never known for their offense (only three top-10 finishes in 15 seasons in team goals scored) and instead achieved success through stingy defense.  Of course the Predators never employed a talent like Ovechkin on their roster, but will Trotz and his defensive-minded approach stifle Ovechkin?  The first time Ovechkin doesn’t back-check hard, will Trotz sit him at the end of the bench as an example to the team?  He’s never going to win a Selke Award (for comedy relief, google “Alex Ovechkin defense gif” and watch in awe of his terribleness), but will he put enough effort in on his end to ensure Trotz doesn’t suffer heart palpitations?  As captain of the team, effort should never be a question.  Unfortunately for Ovechkin though, too often it is.  Ovechkin needs to realize that his Capitals need Trotz and his style to succeed in the playoffs.

Also working against Ovechkin is the overall talent in the league, especially the young stars.  Players like Steven Stamkos, John Tavares, Nathan MacKinnon and the like are just starting to come into their own and are poised to knock Ovechkin off his throne of most lethal goal scorer in the league and lead their teams deep into the playoffs.

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Will Ovechkin be able to lead his team to heights they have not seen before?  The team loaded up on the blue-line this summer with the acquisitions of Matt Niskanen and Brooks Orpik.  While both were overpaid, there is no question the Capitals’ blue line this year is as talented as it has been during the Ovechkin tenure.  Beyond Ovechkin, the forward group consists of all-star center Nicklas Backstrom and dynamic youngster Evgeny Kuznetsov.  Overall it’s a talent-laden group.

And if it doesn’t work?  Would the Capitals do the unthinkable and move on from their superstar?  In a word: no.  Or better yet, they’d be crazy to. Despite his shortcomings, Ovechkin is still a top talent in the world and should still remain a productive forward despite his age thanks to his world-class shot and power play prowess.  There is no realistic trade option available that a team would be willing to put together that would entice the Capitals to move him and be fair for both sides.  The only way Ovechkin doesn’t end his career in Washington is if he requests to be moved.  For all the power he has in the organization, that appears unlikely.  Even if Ovechkin and new coach Barry Trotz don’t get along (which is what I ultimately think will happen, sooner rather than later), the Capitals would be foolish to jettison Ovechkin in favor of Trotz or any head coach.  Coaches comes and go.  Talents such as Ovechkin are generational (plus we finally have the answer to what happens when you breed a raging bull with a mac-truck: Ovie).

Despite this, time is running out on him to have his name etched on the Stanley Cup and take his rightful place among the game’s greats.  Fair or not, perception has become reality and the fact is Ovechkin may have all the talent in the world, but hasn’t displayed enough of what it takes to win.  He still has time to change that narrative, something that as a hockey fan I hope he can accomplish.  But the time to deliver is now before the Ovechkin we’ve come to adore is no longer great.