Western Conference Playoffs: Handicapping the Race

Winnipeg Jets     32-21-13, 76 points, 17 games remaining

It seems like all year people have been expecting them to fall out, yet all they do is keep winning.  They’ve gone 5-3-2 over their last 10 and have been riding the strong play of goaltender Michael Hutchinson during their surge.  They have rebounded nicely since dropping six in a row early in February.

From the outside I think the reason why people keep forgetting about them or choose not to take them too seriously is their lack of star power.  Their offense is not built around one player who can take over a game.  However, forwards Bryan Little, Andrew Ladd and Blake Wheeler should all finish around the 60-point mark or better, and defenseman Dustin Byfuglien is one of the most dangerous weapons from the point.

The problem the Jets face in securing a playoff berth is their difficult schedule.  12 of their remaining 18 games are against teams currently in a playoff position including a brutal six-game stretch that will see them play Vancouver twice, Chicago, Montreal, the New York Rangers and finally, Minnesota.  In fact that April 6th game at Minnesota may very well be a “knockout” game for one of those two teams depending how this next month shapes up.  Or perhaps that “knockout” game is the season finale home against Calgary?

Prediction: the Jets earn the final Western Conference wild card spot by their skin of their teeth by beating the Flames on April 11th to close out the regular season.  It’ll be great entertainment in a “win or go home” environment in Winnipeg in front a delirious MTS Centre crowd.

Next: Resurgence Behind Cinderella?

Feb 28, 2015; Denver, CO, USA; Minnesota Wild goalie Devan Dubnyk (40) (center) celebrates the win over the Colorado Avalanche at the Pepsi Center. The Wild defeated the Avalanche 3-1. Mandatory Credit: Ron Chenoy-USA TODAY Sports

Minnesota Wild     34-22-7, 75 points, 19 games remaining

It’s tough not to start with the discussion without pointing to their most important player first…Devan Dubyk of course.  All Dubyk’s done in his 21 games since being traded from Arizona is post a 16-3-1 record, 1.65 goals against average, .937 save percentage and 5 shutouts.  Ho-hum.

While he won’t be in the discussions for league’ MVP, there’s no question Dubnyk has been the most valuable Wild since he arrived in town and has carried a team that was on the verge of “epic disaster” to “playoff contender.”  There are still questions whether Dubnyk can keep this up as he was nowhere close to this good in previous stints with Edmonton, Nashville, and Arizona.  But the man is a former first round draft pick, so it’s not like he is some talentless bum who just caught fire.  Maybe he’s just a late bloomer?

It’s no coincidence then that the Wild have gone 14-2-1 in their last 17 either to bring their record from .500 to 12 games above.  This is another team that doesn’t have that superstar on offense they can turn to, but forwards Zach Parise, Thomas Vanek, and Jason Pominville among others, have upped their game recently to contribute to an offense that is averaging three goals a game in those last 17.  They also sought help at the deadline and brought in forward Chris Stewart for additional scoring.

Similar to the Jets, the schedule is daunting for the Wild. 14 of their remaining 19 games are against playoff foes including all six of their April contests.  Despite his recent play, would anyone be caught off guard if Dubnyk turned back into a pumpkin?

Prediction: even with the difficult schedule, the Wild are finally playing like the team many thought they would be to begin the season.  I expect them to continue their hot play and earn the first Western Conference wild card spot comfortably.

Next: Can They Overcome Injury to their Star?

Vancouver Canucks     36-24-3, 75 points, 19 games remaining

They currently sit second in the Pacific Division and have gone 3-2-0 since Ryan Miller went down with injury.  Miller was the team’s MVP before his injury so it’s always a precarious position to be in when battling for a playoff spot.

Daniel Sedin and Henrik Sedin continue to put up points even as they’ve lost a step or two from their prime years.  However, outside of Radim Vrbata, the team has struggled all year to find secondary scoring.  They were relatively quiet at the trade deadline but did add Sven Baertschi and Cory Conacher in the hopes of adding some scoring depth.

The biggest factor in the Canucks’ favor right now is their relatively easy schedule.  Only six of their 19 games are against teams in a playoff position, so if they take care of business where they should, they will be in good shape to make a playoff spot.  Among their remaining games they still face the Arizona Coyotes three times who sold off many of their top players and close out with the Edmonton Oilers.  Add in another game against Toronto and those are five “must-win” games for the Canucks if they want to play post season hockey.

Prediction: even with the injury to Ryan Miller the team should have enough to hang onto a playoff spot in the Western Conference.  I’m not convinced they’ll finish second in the Pacific, but a third place finish would work just fine for them.

Next: A Young Team Ahead of Schedule

Feb 20, 2015; Calgary, Alberta, CAN; Calgary Flames head coach Bob Hartley on his bench against the Anaheim Ducks during the third period at Scotiabank Saddledome. Anaheim Ducks won 6-3. Mandatory Credit: Sergei Belski-USA TODAY Sports

Calgary Flames     34-25-4, 72 points, 19 games remaining

They currently occupy third place in the Pacific Division despite being tied with the Kings and Sharks thanks to their regulation win total.  It’s amazing that the Flames find themselves in the position they are currently in, and a large part of that goes to coach Bob Hartley.  The Flames are 18th in goals scored per game, 12th in goals allowed per game, and boast the 20th ranked power play and 19th ranked penalty kill.  Nothing jumps out at you.

They have been great at closing games out as they have the third best win percentage in the league when leading after two periods.  It’s the sign of a disciplined, maturing team (they also only accumulate 7.6 penalty minutes per game, third fewest in the league).  The goalie duo of Karri Ramo and Jonas Hiller have been solid enough and youngsters Sean Monahan and Johnny Gaudreau have been steady contributors all season and veteran Jiri Hudler is on pace for a 65 point campaign.

But, the team will be without its best player, defenseman Mark Giordano, for the remainder of the season. Giordano had 11 goals and 37 assists before he tore his biceps and his offense from the blue line can’t be replicated. It’s a shame for Giordano who was having the finest season of his career.

The schedule is not daunting as only 8 of their remaining games are against playoff teams.  Despite the injury issues, never count this team out.

Prediction: Hartley will have them in the thick of the race until the bitter end.  Unfortunately for the Flames, Giordano’s injury is too much to overcome and they’ll be beat out by the Jets on the last day of the season for the final Western Conference wild card spot.  Don’t fret though Flames fans: the future looks bright.

Next: A Recurring Theme?

Los Angeles Kings     30-21-12, 72 points, 19 games remaining

Stop me if you’ve seen this movie before: the Kings claw their way through the regular season teetering on the fringe of the final playoff spot all season before making a late regular season run and eventually, deep playoff run.

History has a way of repeating itself, and things are setting up that way again for the defending Stanley Cup Champs.  A recent eight-game winning streak vaulted the Kings back into the playoff picture, although they have cooled off since then winning only one of their last four games.  After deep playoff runs the past several years, it just looks like the Kings are gassed and trying to conserve their energy until April.  The only problem is the rest of the Western Conference didn’t get the same memo, and are making things a little uncomfortable for them.

Veterans Anze Kopitar, Justin Williams, Marian Gaborik, and Dustin Brown are plodding along.  Jonathan Quick seems to have re-discovered his game again after a brutal December and January.  The special teams are anything but that (18th in power play, 20th in penalty kill).  It’s been a very non-descript season for the champs.

However, they finally added a defenseman at the trade deadline, acquiring Andrej Sekera for a first round pick and prospect.  The blue line has been a sore point all season after Slava Voynov‘s off-ice issues.  There are no more excuses about it going forward.

The schedule is tough, with 11 games remaining against playoff teams, including a brutal road trip that takes them to the Rangers, Islanders, Wild, and Blackhawks in a few weeks.  It’s weird thinking the playoffs could start with no Kings around to defend their title, but the possibility is real.

Prediction: while that possibility is real, I still don’t see it happening.  It may be cliche, but this team knows how to turn it on and win when they need to.  Yes, they’ve put themselves in a tight spot, but their recent eight-game winning streak should still demonstrate this is a team to fear.  While most Western Conference contenders are crossing their fingers the Kings won’t qualify, I trust the coach…I trust the goalie…and I trust the veteran-laden squad to finish in the top-three in the Pacific and defend their title.

Next: One Last Run for an Era?

San Jose Sharks     32-25-8, 72 points, 17 games remaining

Even with their recent demolition of Vancouver, the Sharks are still only 4-5-1 over their last 10 and seem to be on the border of “contender” and “time to rebuild.”  According to reports the Sharks were willing to part with goalie Antti Niemi at the trade deadline and give the full time reigns over to Alex Stalock, but nothing materialized.  They made several minor moves that had the look of “sellers”, but held on to their big guns to re-evaluate over the summer.

The Sharks still have plenty of fire power up from with Joe Pavelski, Joe Thornton, Logan Couture, and Patrick Marleau and Brent Burns patrolling the blue line.  But something just seems “off” with this club.  The penalty kill is 25th in the league, they allow nearly 30 shots on goal per game, and the Niemi/Stalock combination has been average all season.

The remaining schedule is not horrible with only eight games remaining against playoff teams.  But the schedule also includes a monster seven-game road trip where they’ll get Winnipeg, Montreal, Detroit, and Pittsburgh, among others.

The Sharks have qualified for the Western Conference playoffs the previous 10 seasons.  Sure, they generally have their issues when they get there, but few teams can boast the regular season consistency they’ve displayed the past decade.

Prediction: this feels like the end of a era in San Jose.  While it’s tough to bet against players like Jumbo Joe and Marleau, this looks like the end of the line for them as the Sharks may very well look to rebuild this summer.  The Sharks will hang around, but ultimately be done in by goaltending and find itself on the outside looking in come playoff time.

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