(55) shoots the puck against the Toronto Maple Leafs at Air Canada Centre. The Islanders beat the Maple Leafs 4-3 in overtime. Mandatory Credit: Tom Szczerbowski-USA TODAY Sports
The New York Islanders have been a team slowly building for some time. Great players like John Tavares and Kyle Okposo were surrounded with young talent in Travis Hamonic, Calvin de Haan and Anders Lee among others. Mix in Frans Nielsen and Michael Grabner and the casual NHL fan may wonder why the New York Islanders finished fourth from last in the league last season.
The third worst team goals against average is a good place to look so GM Garth Snow went out and signed Jaroslav Halak and he has been the steady force the Islanders desperately needed in the crease. But something was still missing. As this season approached Snow took advantage of the Chicago Blackhawks and Boston Bruins, two teams that needed to make roster moves driven by salary cap needs. Nick Leddy and Johnny Boychuk were acquired for minimal costs to give greater talent to the back-end and support Halak. The results have the New York Islanders competing for a division and conference title.
Live Feed class=inline-text id=inline-text-6NY Islanders fans mourn loss of Mathew Barzal's hair after latest buzz cut /
Snow wisely signed Leddy to a long-term contract extension and recently announced the same for Boychuk, providing top defensemen to build around for several years. Combined with the success of draft picks Brock Nelson, Griffin Reinhart and Ryan Strome and the New York Islanders look ready to compete for Stanley Cups for several seasons to come. Garth Snow is a virtual lock to win General Manager of the Year for his efforts.
With the highly hyped draft class this year there is young talent available to help another struggling franchise make a similar turnaround. Though regardless of who drafts where a general manager still has to support that star player with quality talent around them. One player has never constituted a team and won’t after the upcoming draft either. How much has Tavares won with the Islanders until this season? Exactly.
The general manager will need to be bold. He will need to take calculated risks and yet be precise. He will need awareness of what salary cap issues teams are dealing with and how to possibly take advantage of them similar to Snow. Spending wisely in free agency will also be important as will the delicate balance of young, promising talent and draft picks to go with veterans that have been there, done that.
Let’s take a look at the bottom five teams in terms of total points. What does history tell us about the general managers of these franchises? Now that the trade deadline has passed how do the roster moves this season impact the future? And what could we expect from each team at the draft and through the offseason?
Next: The Rebuild in Toronto Has Begun
Toronto Maple Leafs
Mar 13, 2015; Calgary, Alberta, CAN; Toronto Maple Leafs defenseman
(34) during the first period against the Calgary Flames at Scotiabank Saddledome. Mandatory Credit: Candice Ward-USA TODAY Sports
This has been quite the ride in the Air Canada Centre hasn’t it? Another quality start to the season, another second half of nightmares for the Toronto Maple Leafs. Inconsistent goaltending, the wars between the Toronto media and Phil Kessel, Dion Phaneuf in the trade rumor mill nearly all season and now Nazem Kadri gets a few games off as a disciplinary measure for over sleeping.
GM Dave Nonis and President Brendan Shanahan seem like they have their hands full turning around a franchise that has made the playoffs once since the 2004 lockout. And you don’t want to bring that series up unless you’re a Boston Bruins fan. Now the Leafs are heading into a full-blown rebuild after trading away Cody Franson, Mike Santorelli, Daniel Winnik, Carter Ashton and David Broll leading up to the trade deadline.
Whom is still there is important. Phaneuf and Kessel are the two big players still under contract with Toronto, despite all the rumors of Phaneuf heading to the Detroit Red Wings at the deadline. While both could be traded and would bring reasonable returns, I’m on record as saying trading Kessel would be a bad idea for the future of the Maple Leafs. It still might be the best thing for Kessel, whom has had enough of the Toronto media spotlight and questions. So what’s a GM and President to do?
For starters do not rush the development of recent top picks William Nylander and Frederik Gauthier. Give both another year to develop and mature to prepare themselves for the NHL and the spotlight that Toronto brings. Trading David Clarkson for Nathan Horton was a stroke of genius and, for me, the most impressive and savvy move of the entire deadline. If Horton is healthy you get a productive power forward. If he isn’t, you have cap relief. Hopefully Horton does what’s in the best interest of his long-term health but the Maple Leafs are going to help no matter what.
Trading Phaneuf would be mutually beneficial for both the team and the player. Phaneuf is paid like a top-pair defensemen and captain. As a result is getting the lion share of the blame, along with Kessel, for the lack of team success in Toronto. That’s not truly accurate. Phaneuf has been a solid player but not the élite defensemen Leafs fans thought they were getting. Nonis should trade him and let Phaneuf continue his career elsewhere while getting appropriate future value.
Joffrey Lupul is another player the Leafs need to decide on. He’s been reasonably productive when he’s healthy, which isn’t often enough to consistently make a difference on the ice. Is his salary worth holding on to? Can Nonis strike gold again and find a team to trade for him?
The Toronto Maple Leafs are likely to be near the bottom of the NHL standings again next year, but don’t expect the rebuild to take several years. Having Nylander, Gauthier and Tyler Bozak as your top three centers is a nice start. Keeping Kessel to play on one of the wings brings punch to the offense. Defensive depth and goaltending will continue to be questions that need answers. Expect to get a better idea about the time-table for rebuilding the Toronto Maple Leafs at the draft. There are pieces here that could help Leafs fans only need a short-term pain tolerance.
Next: There's A Storm Brewing In Carolina
Carolina Hurricanes
Mar 12, 2015; Raleigh, NC, USA; Carolina Hurricanes forward
(15) celebrates his 3rd period goal against the Dallas Stars at PNC Arena. The Dallas Stars defeated the Carolina Hurricanes 5-3. Mandatory Credit: James Guillory-USA TODAY Sports
The Carolina Hurricanes season was over before it ever got started with the injury to Jordan Staal. Starting the season 0-6-2 through October dug the hole and despite a reasonable performance in November the Hurricanes were already ten points behind the last wild card playoff spot (trailing Toronto, interestingly) and never recovered. GM Ron Francis, on the job for not quite one year yet, is tasked with turning around a franchise with one playoff appearance since the Stanley Cup team of 2005-06.
The Hurricanes may actually be in worse position than Toronto. Despite having Eric Staal and 2013 first round pick Elias Lindholm up front, Carolina is in the bottom five in offensive production. Jay McClement, Andrej Nestrasil and Brett Bellemore are the only players on the roster with a positive plus/minus rating. That isn’t the best stat in the world but when positioned against middle of the road goaltending numbers, the offensive challenges stick out.
Unfortunately for Francis, next season looks like the bottom for Carolina. Jordan Staal, Alexander Semin, Jeff Skinner and Justin Faulk are under long-term contracts and offer a worthy core for the Hurricanes. However without a fast start the pressure to trade big name unrestricted free agents for future players and picks will mount. Cam Ward and Eric Staal are the biggest names with expiring contracts after next season and both have value for contending teams.
With a lack of depth in the prospect pool both Ward and Eric Staal may find themselves traded, though both would need to waive their no-trade clause which Staal decided against this season. That should concern Francis, whom will need all options on the table to turn the franchise around. A high draft pick this year will be a part of that perhaps as soon as next season.
Francis has potential to be one of the more active GM’s at the draft with a high pick and coveted players to support a playoff run. With cap space available the quickest way to replicate the New York Islanders success is through free agency. That’s a risky approach to take and doesn’t guarantee long-term success. I expect Francis to stay the course, draft as high and as often as possible in 2015 and see how a healthy start benefits the Hurricanes.
Next: Coyotes Howling Toward The Future
Arizona Coyotes
Mar 5, 2015; Glendale, AZ, USA; Arizona Coyotes defenseman
(23) skates the puck against the Vancouver Canucks at Gila River Arena. The Coyotes won 3-2 in a shootout. Mandatory Credit: Joe Camporeale-USA TODAY Sports
Antoine Vermette, Zybnek Michalek and Keith Yandle were traded away for largely future potential as the Coyotes attempt to reach the ultimate prize at the 2015 NHL Entry Draft. That will be the news that dominates the narrative this season for Arizona but the turn around may happen sooner.
Shane Doan is still productive player that will likely finish his career in the desert. Mikeal Boddeker will come back healthy next year depending on how Maloney approaches his restricted free agent status. Oliver Ekman-Larsson is one of the better offensive defencemen in the league and doesn’t get nearly enough credit for his talents in part because the team he plays for isn’t successful.
The real challenge for the Coyotes this year – and a big question going forward – is in goal. To say Mike Smith hasn’t had the season he or the Coyotes expected would be an understatement. This has been Smith’s worst season in Arizona by a mile with a save percentage under .900. While the troubles for Arizona can’t all be laid at the crease of their goaltender, an average year for Smith would have the Coyotes multiple wins higher in the standings.
Smith is signed through the 2018 season at a cap hit of just over $5.6 million dollars. Finding his game will be critical to the Coyotes turning their fortunes around because that contract is nearly immoveable. Until this year Smith has played to the level of his contract, if not better. That doesn’t mean Maloney won’t consider all options heading into next season.
One of those options includes a full-blown youth movement. Tobias Rieder, Klas Dahlbeck, Connor Murphy and Ekman-Larsson are all very young and Max Domi is waiting in the wings with the first round pick yet to be made. Add in the potential of Anthony Duclair and an estimated $15 million in cap space, the Arizona Coyotes will have the agility to bring in more veteran players and be better next season. Is it playoffs better? Probably not, but it’s several steps in the right direction. Arizona is building it right and this offseason and draft will be intriguing.
Next: Edmonton Picking Near The Top - Again
Edmonton Oilers
Mar 13, 2015; Columbus, OH, USA; Edmonton Oilers right wing
(10) celebrates his goal with teammates in the third period against the Columbus Blue Jackets at Nationwide Arena. The Blue Jackets won 5-4 in a shootout. Mandatory Credit: Aaron Doster-USA TODAY Sports
Another year, another high draft pick for the Edmonton Oilers. Talent is not the problem in Oil Country. Taylor Hall, Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, Jordan Eberle and Leon Draisaitl are capable of leading this team offensively for years to come. Hall’s injuries are a concern but his talent is undeniable. And yet the Oilers are in the bottom five in offensive production. Looking at these talented forwards that makes no sense.
The major problem for the Oilers is Kevin Lowe and Craig MacTavish are putting teams together to try to outgun the opponent as if this were 1985. The style of play has changed so dramatically (thanks, New Jersey Devils!) and goaltenders have better equipment and training than ever before. Defensemen blocking shots is an art form. The game is tighter now than it was during Lowe and MacTavish’s playing career. The style the Oilers are trying to create doesn’t work now.
The shift to defense has finally started to take place. Last offseason the Oilers acquired Nikita Nikitin front the Columbus Blue Jackets and drafted Darnell Nurse with their first round pick. Nurse is going to take some time developing as most defensive prospect do but it’s a step in the right direction. In fact if you look at the Oilers blue line now there isn’t a player outside of Andrew Ference that is over 28. Not only are they young and getting important learning minutes now, they are BIG. Check out the size of these guys here.
I think the Oilers could be competitive – playoff competitive – next year with two bold moves. First, flip your depth. Nail Yakupov has tremendous talent but hasn’t produced like a top pick in the NHL yet. With youth on his side there are likely several teams that would bring Yakupov in to help their top six. He feels like “change of scenery” guy and a trade may be what he needs to get going. The Oilers could acquire a pick, but should shoot for a veteran defenseman to help the youth on the team now. Ben Scrivens and Viktor Fasth would certainly appreciate the help in front of them.
Secondly if the Edmonton Oilers pick in the top two of the draft, they should trade that pick. The return on that trade (1-2 NHL players, 1-2 prospects, picks) with the right players in return would put the Oilers in the playoff hunt right now. They can find another top two defenseman, a top six forward, perhaps a goaltender and still build the farm system with one bold (and risky) deal.
Of all the teams in the bottom five of the standings Edmonton is the only one I think should make this trade because they are the most talented. The immediate benefits would be massive. If that trade happens, Edmonton may be the team to repeat the New York Islanders success next season.
Next: Buffalo Sabres Turning The Corner
Buffalo Sabres
Mar 11, 2015; Toronto, Ontario, CAN; Buffalo Sabres goalie
(not pictured) in the third period at Air Canada Centre. The Maple Leafs won 4-3 in overtime. Mandatory Credit: Tom Szczerbowski-USA TODAY Sports
The Buffalo Sabres and their fans have pointed to the 2015 NHL Entry Draft as the moment several seasons of struggles and poor results will end. Sabres GM Tim Murray is well aware neither Connor McDavid nor Jack Eichel alone will fix any franchise. One look at the roster and it’s clear some of the pieces are starting to fall in place.
The blockbuster trade to acquire Evander Kane and Zach Bogosian brings a proven, top six scoring threat and a young veteran capable of big hits and bigger minutes. Add in Tyler Ennis, Matt Moulson, Zemgus Girgensons and likely Samson Reinhart and the forwards become more imposing. Throw the 2015 top pick into the mix and the 2015 Buffalo Sabres are a lot harder to stop.
The young crop of defencemen to go with Bogosian has partially arrived this season. Rasmus Ristolainen has played very well learning on the job, as has Nikita Zadorov. Mark Pysyk has shown he’s ready to play in the NHL during his opportunities this season. Add veteran Josh Gorges and while the younger defencemen continue to learn on the job the Sabres can expect be better on the back-end as well.
Major questions still remain in Buffalo. Who is going to play goal for the Sabres next season? Is it Anders Lindback and Chad Johnson, or someone else? Lindback is an unrestricted free agent after the season while Johnson has one more year on his contract. The Sabres could repeat last season and bring back Jhonas Enroth or Michal Neuvirth to pair with Johnson and give their goaltending prospects more time to develop. Antti Niemi is also an unrestricted free agent after this year and while Murray likes his goaltenders on the bigger side, Niemi isn’t exactly small at 6′ 2” and does have a winning pedigree including a Stanley Cup on his résumé.
Ultimately while the Sabres should be better than the last two seasons the playoffs remain a long shot. There is still a draft and free agency to consider and Murray has shown he is not only savvy but bold. The trade or signing that would put the Sabres into the playoff conversation is likely one fans won’t see coming. That will make the team’s turnaround more interesting because Murray is unpredictable.
There is quality talent and high value prospects on all five teams at the bottom of the NHL standings this season. The 2015 NHL Entry Draft will dictate the direction of these teams not just in the selections made but potential trades. Contending teams will be forced to make salary cap adjustments and other high-quality players will be there for the taking. The Edmonton Oilers have the greatest potential for a quick turn around, not just because they have drafted high for several years. If the Oilers can be bold and brave enough to trade away the opportunity to draft Connor McDavid or Jack Eichel, the return can springboard the team beyond being merely competitive year after year.
All five teams have reason to believe next season will finish differently than this one, whether by their young talent or staying healthy. If that happens there will be a dramatic shift in the competitive balance of the NHL. Something these five fan bases would certainly welcome after years of challenges.
