NHL Draft: You Don’t Need A Top Two Pick

Mar 14, 2015; Raleigh, NC, USA; Florida Panthers defensemen Aaron Ekblad (5) skates with puck against the Carolina Hurricanes at PNC Arena. The Florida Panthers defeated the Carolina Hurricanes 2-0. Mandatory Credit: James Guillory-USA TODAY Sports

By now if you haven’t heard about the NHL Draft and the ‘generational talents’ in Connor McDavid and Jack Eichel, you’re purposely avoiding it for some reason.  All season long it’s been tanking this, tanking that to try to finish dead last in the league and guarantee one of these two young future stars.

Only one team is going to finish last, which begs the question: what if you don’t? What if your favorite team finishes in 28th or 29th place and doesn’t win the lottery?  Well, clearly if that happens your team is going to fold up operations.  There will be no more NHL in your favorite city.  I’d imagine the empty arena then gets used for indoor volleyball and board game tournaments.

Maybe not, but you get the point.  If you don’t just stay with me.  I’m going to go back over some recent draft classes and show you that sometimes scouts are wrong and élite talent is passed over in the first few picks.  Or, in the case of the 2015 NHL Draft, there is still going to be élite talent available.  It isn’t necessary for teams to pack up and go home after McDavid and Eichel come off the board, despite rumors to the contrary.

Sabre Noise

When digging through the past I’m going to skip the 2014 NHL Draft class because the majority of players haven’t had the opportunity to make their mark. If you’re into snap judgements Aaron Ekblad looks like the real deal, as does David Pastrnak with his 22 points in 37 games as an 18-year old with the Boston Bruins. Pastrnak was drafted 25th overall.

I know Pastrnak isn’t McDavid or Eichel so save your hate mail. But teams need the Pastrnaks of the world to go with the ‘generational talent’. Sidney Crosby has Evgeni Malkin, John Tavares has Kyle Okposo, Pavel Datsyuk has Henrik Zetterberg and so on. Elite players still need help. Depending on how you feel about the Anaheim Ducks and Los Angeles Kings rosters, you can win a Stanley Cup without a generational player.

The 2013 NHL Draft class tells a similar story of players yet to make their impact.  Of course Nathan MacKinnon and Aleksander Barkov are both playing well and likely cornerstones for the Avalanche and Panthers, respectively. And this draft class is DEEP, similar to the 2015 class.  While most of the top ten has begun their NHL careers fans are still looking forward to Max Domi, Anthony Mantha and Fredrick Gauthier among others.

As you travel back in time with me remember this:  picking in the top two does not guarantee a Stanley Cup.  It guarantees relevance for an extended period.  If that’s good enough for you then keep paying attention to only Connor McDavid and Jack Eichel.  For fans that want the Stanley Cup parade in their home city, let’s look back at the NHL Draft classes from 2008 through 2013 and see what building blocks were drafted outside of the top two.

Next: 2008 NHL Draft - Norris Trophy Winner Anyone?

2008 NHL Draft

Mar 12, 2015; Montreal, Quebec, CAN; Ottawa Senators defenseman Erik Karlsson (65) scores a goal against Montreal Canadiens goalie Carey Price (31) during the third period at the Bell Centre. Mandatory Credit: Eric Bolte-USA TODAY Sports

Let’s start with the obvious.  Steven Stamkos is half man, half freak of nature.  And Drew Doughty is one of the best defensemen in the NHL, a perennial Norris Trophy candidate.  In the third position, Zach Bogosian was recently traded to the Buffalo Sabres in a deal involving the twelfth pick in this draft, Tyler Myers.  Both different style of defensemen, both solid if not more and Myers has a Calder Trophy on his résumé.

Outside of the top ten, other defencemen selected were Myers followed by Colten Toubert.  The fifteenth pick in the 2008 NHL Draft?  Erik Karlsson, He with the Norris Trophy and excellent offensive numbers. How do you think the Toronto Maple Leafs feel about passing on him with the fifth overall pick?

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There are other quality NHL players further down the first round.  Jordan Eberle was the first of the parade of Edmonton Oilers forwards selected in the opening round and is putting together a quality career with 279 points in 347 games.  The first round from the 2008 NHL Draft is littered with players making contributions on various rosters.  Luca Sbisa, Tyler Ennis and Jake Gardiner just to name a few.  Outside of the top two picks any team would be elated to have Pietrangelo or Boedker patrolling the ice.

Doughty was considered very good this year but I don’t recall anything referring to him as ‘generational’.  Two Stanley Cups later fans of the Kings don’t care if you split those hairs or not.  To paraphrase the great Patrick Roy, they won’t be able to hear you with those two rings plugging their ears.

Answer this question:  would you take Karlsson, Eberle, Sbisa or Ennis on your team now and expect them to be better?  You sure would.

Next: 2009 NHL Draft - Where Arizona Began To Build

2010 NHL Draft

Mar 24, 2015; Pittsburgh, PA, USA; St. Louis Blues right-wing Vladimir Tarasenko (91) skates with the puck against the Pittsburgh Penguins during the first period at the CONSOL Energy Center. Mandatory Credit: Charles LeClaire-USA TODAY Sports

Edmonton continued the parade of forwards by selecting Taylor Hall with the top pick.  Whatever you think is going wrong with the Oilers, Hall isn’t part of that.  He’s producing at almost a point-per-game pace for his career, though the knock on him is injuries.  Hall has yet to play a full season in his five-year NHL career.  But when he is on the ice, Hall is must-see talent.

With the second selection the Boston Bruins selected Tyler Seguin, considered by many to be a top-five player in the league.  Questions about Sequin off-ice led to his trade to the Dallas Stars, where Seguin continues to pile up points you’d expect from a forward with his draft status.  Seguin has actually produced at a point-per-game pace since the trade to Dallas.

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Erik Gudbranson and Ryan Johansen were picks three and four, respectively.  Both the Florida Panthers and Columbus Blue Jackets are teams on the rise for next season and Florida hasn’t been ruled out of the playoffs for this year yet.  The emergence of these two stars is a major reason why.  Both the Panthers and Blue Jackets will compete for playoff spots for years to come because of players like these at their core.

I could spend a lot of time talking about contributions from players all the way down to Brock Nelson with the New York Islanders at the last pick in the first round.  But for those that look at this years NHL Draft and argue you can’t find elite scorers outside of the top two players, I give you exhibit sixteen from the 2010 NHL Draft.  In his third season with the St. Louis Blues, Vladimir Tarasenko has emerged as one of the most exciting players in the NHL and one of its most dangerous goal scorers.  The Blues will be taken more seriously in the playoffs this year not because of their young, deep defense (though that helps) but because they have more offensive punch.

With the sixteenth pick in the draft.  Think about how the landscape of the NHL would change if the Los Angeles Kings would have selected Tarasenko with the fifteenth pick instead of Derek Forbort.  We would hear a lot more about the word ‘dynasty’.

Next: 2011 NHL Draft - A Leaner Year

2011 NHL Draft

Mar 8, 2015; Raleigh, NC, USA; Edmonton Oilers defensemen Oscar Klefbom (84) skates against the Carolina Hurricanes at PNC Arena. The Carolina Hurricanes defeated the Edmonton Oilers 7-4. Mandatory Credit: James Guillory-USA TODAY Sports

Those of you waiting to point out how insane it is to look for value beyond the top two picks, here is your chance.  It’s not that there aren’t high quality NHL players beyond Ryan Nugent-Hopkins and Gabriel Landeskog.  There are just fewer of them.

Looking over the rest of the top ten you’ll find most of the other impact players from this NHL Draft opening round.  Jonathan Huberdeau with the third pick jumps out (did Florida have a nice two years in a row or what??) as does the apparent home run the Boston Bruins hit with Dougie Hamilton at the ninth pick.  After that, we start to get into “maybe he will” and “just needs more seasoning” guys.

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Two guys stick out from picks eleven through thirty, the first being Joel Armia.  The sixteenth pick for the Buffalo Sabres, Armia was thought part of the young future core of the team.  Until he wasn’t, traded as part of the package to bring in Evander Kane and Zach Bogosian (both top five picks themselves).  Was he included because he has a high upside?  Or because his first round potential hasn’t developed?  Armia is still early in his career to make a call on him but his development is worth watching in Winnipeg.

At the nineteenth pick is Edmonton Oilers defenseman Oscar Klefbom. Only 67 games into his NHL career, Klefbom is proving to be an speedy ice hog for the Oilers and is adjusting to the NHL game nicely.  That combined with his point shot should serve Edmonton well and justify his NHL Draft place.  His offense has time to catch up considering how early into his career Klefbom is.  Good thing this pick wasn’t a forward too, right?

The rest of the 2011 NHL Draft first round is full of players yet to make their mark.  That has to concern teams since the NHL Draft is known to have a very high number of first-round draft picks to not succeed at the pro level. If that history is any guide, the 2011 NHL Draft will have few names outside of the top ten contributing to teams. It’s still early but it’s worth watching.

Next: 2012 NHL Draft - Big Talent With Later Picks

2012 NHL Draft

Mar 26, 2015; Tampa, FL, USA; Nashville Predators center Filip Forsberg (9) shoots the puck against the Tampa Bay Lightning during the first period at Amalie Arena. Mandatory Credit: Kim Klement-USA TODAY Sports

Well that’s a more recognizable top ten from the 2012 NHL Draft, isn’t it?  Nail Yakopov finally seems to be having fun in Edmonton and producing, just in time for his contract to expire.  Ryan Murray has only logged a handful of games this season – as has most of the Blue Jackets roster – with various injuries.  Take a look at that third overall pick.  Would you take Alex Galchenyuk the way he’s going in Montreal?  Having his best season as a pro, Galchenyuk will be critical to the success of the Habs in the playoffs when balanced scoring is a must.

Hampus Lindholm is another top pick paying quick dividends.  Lindholm is another player from the 2012 NHL Draft class logging big minutes and counted on for playoff contributions.  Learning from Francois Beauchemin doesn’t hurt the learning curve either.

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Outside of the top ten if you are looking for impact players just stop at number eleven and laugh at the Washington Capitals.  The Nashville Predators still are after they acquired Filip Forsberg for Martin Erat.  To say former GM George McPhee stubbed his toe on this one is an understatement – this trade was tearing your Achilles tendon then breaking your foot in rehab.  Sorry, Caps.  No do-overs.

Up and down the first round of the 2012 NHL Draft are talented players already making their mark in the NHL.  Zemgus Girgensons with the Buffalo Sabres was an All-Star this season, Codi Ceci is becoming an impact player for the surging Ottawa Senators and Tomas Hertl is giving the San José Sharks something to look forward to, other than the offseason.

Further down the list is potential Tampa Bay Lightning goaltender of the future, Andrei Vasilevski, whom has looked better than good during his starts this season.  Olli Maatta shone brightly on the Penguins blue line until his fight with thyroid cancer took away most of this season.  Blackhawks fans have screamed for “Teuvo Time” most of the season in anticipation of their heralded prospect, Teuvo Teravainen.

The 2012 NHL Draft has already surpassed the 2011 NHL Draft in terms of first round production.  As with many of these years there are not what you would consider ‘generational players’ picked, though I’d listen to the argument about Tarasenko and Forsberg now they way they’re going.  Bottom line is if you aren’t Arizona or Buffalo you don’t need to worry.  Sure, it would be nice if your favorite team won the right to draft Connor McDavid or Jack Eichel.

But what’s more important is how your team scouts and the conviction they have in decisions made about players.  Most of the Buffalo Sabres young core is coming from outside of the top two picks. That team will find success no matter who they land, as will the Arizona Coyotes.  The prospect pool for both teams is just too deep to miss on everyone and some of that talent is already proving NHL ready.

Take a big picture view of the 2015 NHL Draft.  There won’t be two picks and then a run to the bar.  Not as deep as this years NHL draft is.  Will your team find the gem that flies under the radar and helps get to the promised land?  Watch the 2015 NHL Draft and find out!

Next: Broken Stick Goals Fixed With Replay?

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