Braden Holtby and the Washington Capitals have an arbitration hearing set for Thursday July 23, 2015. So days before they are set to meet, reports have come out that Holtby is asking for $8 million a year (really? I mean I know he’s good, but this is a big stretch). The Capitals countered that offer with $5.1 million (hmm, a little insulting?)
So it seems the two sides are worlds apart, but in truth both sides are going to exaggerate things a bit. According to NBC Sports:
"Now, obviously, Holtby doesn’t really expect to get $8 million, just the same as the Caps don’t expect to get the 25-year-old goalie for a bargain $5.1 million. That’s just how arbitration works. Each side makes the strongest case it can.The NHL’s highest cap hit for a goalie belongs to Henrik Lundqvist, at $8.5 million. And hey, the Holtby camp could argue* that Holtby actually has the same career save percentage as Lundqvist (.921).Of course, the Caps could point to Cory Schneider having a .925 career save percentage, and his cap hit is only $6 million."
That puts the situation into perspective. In reality, there is only about a $1 million difference separating the two parties from an agreement.
Really, that’s not that bad. Yes, depending on what the term of the contract will be the $1 million difference will add up, but there is a way to compromise. Meet between those two numbers.
What I think? The Capitals will end up elevating their number a bit and the two will come to an agreement before Thursday (I say $6 million is a nice and even number).
Why? Because I think an arbitrator would side more with Holtby. No, I don’t think an arbitrator would agree to his outlandish $8 million per year request, but the Capitals could have to pay much more than they are willing to if they don’t sign a new contract before July 23.
And if they decide to walk away from Holtby then all the hard work they have done revamping their team so far this offseason will begin to crumble. Holtby is the foundation of the team; they need him in net. He has been their most consistent goaltender in years and he has shown he can even be a shutdown goaltender in the postseason.
The Capitals won’t be able to find someone this offseason to replace him if they decide to walk away during arbitration. If somehow they could orchestrate a trade, the Capitals would still have to strip away at their team to find a decent goaltender to be their No. 1. It just doesn’t seem plausible.
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In truth, the Capitals need Holtby more than he needs them. He could find a home playing for another team while the Capitals would be in a real bind without him. So, in that way, he has the upper hand and maybe a little more leeway during the last minute negotiating that is going to take place (and may even be taking place as we speak).
For me, I say give him $6 million for six years. That way, the Capitals will have him in his prime and won’t have to try and negotiate a new contract (maybe worth more) if he reaches his full potential in the next year or so.
Look, if it doesn’t work out, and Holtby becomes a total bust (unlikely) there are always ways to get out of the contract. Yes, it’s a pain and a lot of work, but it’s doable. But one thing that is nearly impossible to do: is get a player back who has flourished after you traded him.
Like I’ve said before, it is better to ask forgiveness than live with regret. The Capitals would sure regret letting the 25-year-old goaltender go. The only exception to that would be if Holtby stuck firm to his $8 million. In that instance, the Capitals need to let him walk.
Time is not on the Capitals side. Things need to get done– and fast!
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