NHL Starting Goalies: Crowded Creases

NHL Starting Goalies: Crowded Creases Around the League

Before the 2015-16 season began, we released an NHL starting goalies piece specifically dedicated to which teams were best equipped to handle an injury to their starter, which can be found here.

Ranked 1st was Winnipeg, who lost Ondrej Pavelec, giving Connor Hellebuyck his opportunity to prove he was NHL ready.

Buffalo came in at 25, and were treat to a surprise emergence from Linus Ullmark, along with solid play from Chad Johnson. Unfortunately, it didn’t relate to enough wins.

Ranking 29th was Montreal. We praised Mike Condon for his play in 2014-15, but it was more about losing the best goaltender in the world.

Ranking 30th, the Arizona Coyotes were treated to a rookie of the month performance in January from Louis Domingue, but it’s unlikely to last as they’re already beginning to slide out of playoff contention.

Goalies at the Trade Deadline

Fans shouldn’t expect much goaltender movement in the weeks leading up to/or on the February 29th trade deadline. Many of the top available goaltenders have expiring contracts, and could be available in the summer. Addressing issues in the crease is usually best served during the offseason. The only movement we may see is a team looking to add depth in the backup role or fill an injury void (i.e. Arizona or Montreal, among others).

Teams Looking (possibly) for NHL Starting Goalies or 1A Quality:

Arizona Coyotes – Time to move on from the injured Mike Smith. The Coyotes have an extremely thin goaltending prospect pool as well. Things fell apart when Arizona realized Mark Visentin was a bust.

Calgary Flames – Give Karri Ramo credit, he bounced back nicely in 2015-16. Ramo, 29, and Hiller, 33 are both over the hill. Nothing more than a short-term solution that can go on a nice run, Calgary will need to hope one of Jon Gillies or Mason McDonald is NHL ready in the near future. With both Ramo and Hiller set to become UFA’s in the summer, don’t be surprised if Calgary is the most active team on the goalie market. Re-signing Karri Ramo would be a mistake.

Carolina Hurricanes – It’s unclear whether GM Ron Francis has interest in signing Cam Ward to a new contract. There’s likely mutual interest, but the number needs to work for Carolina given his injury history that lead to years of not earning his lucrative $6.3 million dollar cap hit. Eddie Lack is on the books until 2017-18, and Carolina may choose to continue featuring this season’s duo moving forward. If not, Carolina becomes a top target for goalies such as Ondrej Pavelec and Frederik Andersen (Carolina drafted Andersen originally before re-entering the draft two years later).

Montreal Canadiens – The only reason Montreal explores the goalie trade market once again is to attempt to find yet another temporary replacement for Carey Price. It’s more likely they continue on with Mike Condon and Ben Scrivens though.

New York Islanders – Not that Thomas Greiss isn’t a serviceable backup. It’s the fact that Halak’s best NHL seasons came when he was challenged (Carey Price in Montreal, Brian Elliott in St.Louis). They don’t need someone to subtract from Halak’s minutes, so much as to push him to be ready every night.

Philadelphia Flyers – Give Ron Hextall credit. He’s done a great job getting the right pieces in place, relieving some salary, while making some excellent draft picks. Philly is trending in the right direction. There’s still however question marks surrounding netminders Steve Mason and Michal Neuvirth. 2015-16 isn’t a fair sample size, and it’s easy to overvalue Neuvirth’s tremendous season. It’s not to say Steve Mason can’t be the answer at some point, but it’s certainly not going to be Michal Neuvirth riding one great season. The pair can co-exist for now, but Philadelphia might be better suited exploring the trade market, even if it means overpaying for a quality goaltending prospect. Goaltending has been an issue for far too long in Philadelphia.

Toronto Maple Leafs – Another murky goaltending situation. Jonathan Bernier is on the books through next season, while James Reimer is set to become a free agent. There seems to be mutual interest in negotiating a new contract. At this point, we know Reimer is a very good backup, capable of playing long stretches at times. He’s not capable of playing 60 plus games a year. Bernier still has a miniscule chance of becoming Toronto’s number one, but at this point it seems doubtful. Toronto may look to trade Bernier at some point. They’d prefer to develop within, but may be interested in one of the younger stars (Vasilevskiy, Subban, etc.).

Now onto our NHL Starting Goalies: Crowded Creases countdown…

Next: Anaheim Ducks

Anaheim Ducks (John Gibson/Frederik Andersen)

Finally given a real opportunity to take hold of the starter’s position, John Gibson has no plans of relinquishing it. Gibson was always meant to be the future in goal for Anaheim.

Frederik Andersen, a surprise emergence (in the Jonas Hiller/Viktor Fasth era), got his NHL opportunity one year before John Gibson. This wasn’t a guy (Gibson) that needed much AHL development (if any). Andersen’s presence was the only thing preventing holding him back.  

Oil On Whyte

Andersen has played well in his short tenure with the Ducks. His dismal record in 2015-16 isn’t reflective of his play.  He’s got a 2.37GAA and .918 save percentage, giving Anaheim a chance to win every night.  Unfortunately, Frederik Andersen is receiving the least amount of goal support in 2015-16.

John Gibson is a true number one starter, while Andersen is better classified as a 1A type goalie. Capable of being a starter, but not good enough in April. The Frederik Andersen/Ondrej Pavelec’s of the world are better suited in a Carolina Hurricanes type situation – a goalie tandem sharing the load.

Andersen’s contract is set to expire at the end of this season, and he’ll likely be seeking a pay raise. Even if Anaheim is willing to pay him, there’s no guarantees the restricted free agent will be happy playing a potential 20 to 30 games in 2016-17.

John Gibson has started 19 games since joining Anaheim in 2015-16, winning 11 of them.  He’s also got a 1.91GAA and .923 save percentage.  It was good enough to earn him a spot in the All-Star game in Nashville, where he made the save of the game.

Anton Khudobin is set to become an unrestricted free agent next summer, and based on his 2015-16 numbers, is unlikely to be re-signed even if Andersen is traded.

Solution: Trade Frederik Andersen

It would be unfair to force John Gibson and Frederik Andersen to co-exist. Either one doesn’t get enough time in the crease, or both. Neither scenario works. Anaheim is best suited to find a trade partner, which shouldn’t be difficult given his age and NHL experience.

Next: Boston Bruins

Boston Bruins (Tuukka Rask/Malcolm Subban)

After a rocky start to 2015-16, Tuukka Rask is once again playing at an elite level, proving why he’s one of the NHL’s best. After missing the playoffs in 2014-15, the Boston Bruins are fighting for contention down the final stretch. 

No one knew what to expect from the Bruins after GM Don Sweeney made a trio of unusual moves last offseason, shipping out Milan Lucic, Reilly Smith, and Dougie Hamilton. Torey Krug stepped up in Hamilton’s absence, while Ryan Spooner emerged up front. Now, with a healthy David Pastrnak, the Bruins look primed to lock down a wild card spot.

Signed at $7 million dollars/year through 2021, Tuukka Rask gives the Bruins security in goal for many years to come. In 2015-16, Rask has 17 wins in 35 starts, with a 2.53GAA and .916 save percentage.

Like Montreal, Boston has the luxury of being able to move a top goaltending prospect to address more pressing needs.

Drafted 24th overall back in 2012, Malcolm Subban had an immediate impact in his first year of pro hockey. He went 15-10-5 with a 2.31GAA and .920 save percentage with AHL Providence. Unlike most goalies who take several years to develop in the AHL, Subban is arguably near NHL ready right now. Perhaps the recent recall of Subban is a chance to showcase him at the NHL level?

This isn’t a tandem that can co-exist together.  Malcolm Subban possesses starter quality talent, and needs an opportunity to see if he can reach his potential.  NHL GM’s may be hesitant to pull the trigger on Subban until Boston gives him a little more NHL experience.  His first NHL appearance didn’t go very well back in 2014-15.

Solution: Trade Malcolm Subban

With aging defenders Zdeno Chara and Dennis Seidenberg, the Bruins should begin stockpiling blueliners. It’s difficult to gauge what type of trade value a top goaltending prospect with limited NHL experience brings. A market value will eventually be set, whether it be Subban, Pickard, Murray, or Fucale. The floodgates should open on the goalie market following that first move.

Next: Buffalo Sabres

Buffalo Sabres (Robin Lehner/Chad Johnson/Linus Ullmark)

This is likely a scenario that Buffalo is more than happy to be stuck with. It’s been a bumpy ride since the departure of Ryan Miller. Finally back from injury, Robin Lehner will attempt to win over Sabres fans in an attempt to prove he can carry the load. 

During Lehner’s absence due to injury in the first game of the season, Chad Johnson and Linus Ullmark shared the load. The pair put up excellent numbers, but they struggled to collect wins. Buffalo wasn’t expected to be a great team this year. Fans just needed to see things moving in the right direction, which is happening.

Chad Johnson, 29, is set to become a free agent in the summer. Buffalo may choose to trade Linus Ullmark and re-sign Chad Johnson. If they intend to hold on to Ullmark (intelligent decision given his age), Buffalo is wise to move Chad Johnson as a rental player. Even if it translates to a mere mid-to-late round draft pick, it’s an extra prospect in the system.

Linus Ullmark, 22, is still on his entry-level deal which is set to expire at the end of 2016-17. He’s an upgrade on Johnson, and still has room for development. Those factors are both great reasons to keep him, and reasons that make him a valuable trade asset.

It’s likely a wait and see type situation at the moment as Buffalo hopes to see a larger sample size of Robin Lehner. It’s only fair to give the guy an opportunity, considering they gave up a first round pick (Colin White) in a very deep draft last summer.

Solution: Trade Johnson, Keep Ullmark

Worst case scenario, you can probably re-sign Johnson in the offseason if you want him back. Mid as well stock the system with as many draft picks or prospects as possible. If the return yields a prospect, Buffalo will likely target another blueliner.

Next: Colorado Avalanche

Colorado Avalanche (Semyon Varlamov/Calvin Pickard/Reto Berra)

It’s a case of “who’s the odd man out in Colorado?”. Varlamov is locked in making $5.9 million dollars/year through 2018-19. Berra (injured reserved) is making $1.45 million dollars/year through 2016-17. Pickard’s entry-level deal is set to expire at the end of this season.

Serving as a quality NHL starter, Semyon Varlamov ranks arguably in the top 10 range (definitely top 15) for NHL starting goalies. He’s a very good goaltender, but doesn’t have elite status. To win a Stanley Cup with Semyon Varlamov, you need to surround him with pieces similar to Chicago with Corey Crawford.

Reto Berra has shown glimpses of stardom, but isn’t consistent enough. Some believe he has starter abilities, but he’s a future 1A at best – more likely a quality backup. There’s little reason for Colorado to shop the 29-year-old goaltender already immersed in his proper role (when healthy).

Calvin Pickard is a former second round pick, and younger brother of Nashville’s former first round pick, goalie Chet Pickard. A surprise emergence to some, Calvin is coming off a strong 2014-15 AHL campaign that he continued into the 2015-16 season. Injuries forced the call-up this season, but much like John Gibson, Pickard had already shown signs of being NHL ready.

The Avalanche know what they have in Semyon Varlamov. He’s very capable of carrying the load for this team. The unknown factor is Calvin Pickard. The question Colorado is asking themselves is whether he can be an upgrade on Varlamov.

Solution: Trade Semyon Varlamov

It’s not a knock on Varlamov. He should go on to have a lengthy career whether he stays in Colorado or plays elsewhere. The Avalanche are a young team, and the main core has struggled thus far. Why not let Calvin Pickard attempt to grow with these kids? If it doesn’t work out, there’s always options available. A slight disruption to the team’s core may be exactly what they need to become playoff contenders.

Next: Dallas Stars

Dallas Stars (Antti Niemi/Kari Lehtonen)

When Dallas made the decision to dedicate more money to goaltenders than any other team, the hope was that extra rest would help keep Lehtonen healthy, while giving the Stars a dependable option each and every night.

In 21 games started in 2015-16, Lehtonen has 13 wins, with a 2.82GAA and .908 save percentage. Combine his lengthy injury history with a $5.9 million dollar cap hit through 2017-18 that carries a no-trade clause, and you’ve got a sticky situation. There’s little chance any team is willing to take on that contract.

Antti Niemi has started 30 games for Dallas in 2015-16, winning 19 games, with a 2.44GAA and .911 save percentage. The newcomer is exactly what Dallas needed to take that next step becoming Western Conference powerhouses. Niemi is also signed through 2017-18, but carries a far more affordable $4.5 million dollar cap hit.

It’s conceivable that Dallas could continue to feature the duo for the remainder of each goaltender’s contract. Antti Niemi has already proven a Stanley Cup champion with Chicago, so Dallas knows what they have in both goaltenders. The only reason Dallas decides to move in another direction is if the team runs into salary cap constraints (which is sounding more likely with a weak Canadian dollar).

Solution: Buy-out Kari Lehtonen

Although the Stars were able to fleece the Thrashers for virtually nothing, Atlanta was borderline ready to give him away. A career plagued with injuries, it’s time to move on from the once elite goaltending prospect who never quite panned out. Given his lucrative cap hit, the money could be well spent elsewhere.

Next: Detroit Red Wings

Montreal Canadiens (Carey Price/Zach Fucale)

When you’ve got the best goaltender in the world, there’s really no use for high-end goaltending prospects. The Canadiens have a luxury in Zach Fucale, which may help fetch that missing piece that takes them out of the draft lottery.

Carey Price is one of the biggest stories in 2015-16, having gone down with injury early in the year. He went down again in his second game after returning from injury, leaving Mike Condon to carry the load most of the season.

Mike Condon looked brilliant over the course of the first few months, but things quickly turned for Condon and the Montreal Canadiens. After Dustin Tokarski failed as backup, Marc Bergevin made a deal to acquire Ben Scrivens from Edmonton. The pair have struggled to keep Montreal afloat in Carey Price’s absence.

Drafted 36th overall in 2013, Zach Fucale was one of the CHL’s most talented goaltenders during his junior career (the numbers are overly reflective of his skill-set). He’s regarded as one of the NHL’s top goaltending prospects. Fucale, 20, entered his first year of pro hockey in 2015-16 joining AHL’s St.John’s IceCaps. In 26 games played, Fucale is 10-10-3 with a 3.15GAA and .902 save percentage.

Rumors a couple of months back suggested Montreal was in talks with Carolina regarding Eric Staal, with Zach Fucale as the centerpiece going the other direction. He’ll likely need anywhere between one to three years of development, but should have teams lining up with interest.

Solution: Trade Zach Fucale

There’s few moves you can say with confidence will occur at some point, but this is one of them. Montreal hasn’t felt pressure to move Fucale, perhaps until recently. He can’t do anything to help the team right now, but he’s got enough trade value to garner a return that can help this team score more goals. Don’t be surprised if he’s moved prior to February 29th’s trade deadline.

Next: Ottawa Senators

Ottawa Senators (Craig Anderson/Andrew Hammond/Matt O’Connor)

Ottawa is no stranger to a goaltending controversy. That’s unlikely to change with Craig Anderson in the mix. The arrival of Matt O’Connor does add some confusion moving forward. 

Eyes On Isles

Ottawa is destined for continual goalie controversies. This is made necessary because of Anderson’s injury history. He’s simply not dependable enough to carry the load over an 82-game season. This forces Ottawa to carry two quality netminders at all times. A backup goaltender in Ottawa is basically a crutch. He needs to be good enough to carry the load for however long Anderson is out, but also needs to be accepting of his role when Craig Anderson is healthy. It’s not a recipe that screams sustained long-term success.

Surprisingly, Anderson is having a healthy season (so far) in 2015-16. He’s started 40 games, winning 20 of them, with a 2.89GAA and .913 save percentage. He’s played very well despite the high goals against average – but he’s not stealing games the way he used to in Florida and Colorado.

Assuming the backup role is Andrew Hammond, who single-handedly carried the Senators into the playoffs in 2014-15. Going into 2015-16, Ottawa remained committed to Craig Anderson as starter. Hammond opened the season on the IR, struggling ever since. He’s got 3 wins in 10 starts, with a 2.96GAA and .906 save percentage. 

Third in line was an absolute unknown to most fans heading into 2015-16. Signed as a college free agent back in May 2015, Matt O’Connor filled in temporarily for Andrew Hammond to open the new season. He appeared in one game, stopping 31 of 34 shots en route to a loss.

O’Connor was one of the country’s top college goalies in 2014-15. Suiting up for Boston University, he went 25-4-4 with a 2.18GAA and .927 save percentage. Since joining AHL Binghampton in 2015-16, O’Connor is 3-10-2 with a 3.55GAA and .883 save percentage. He’ll need some time to develop, but carries NHL potential.

Solution: Trade Craig Anderson

Nobody is questioning his ability on the ice. But, there’s something to be said about dependability, especially with goaltenders. Anderson is also a confidence killer for Senators goaltending prospects. Netminders need proper opportunities to take the reins, and build confidence and security in their job. That’s not possible with Craig Anderson in the mix. We already saw the way it damaged Robin Lehner, so why let it continue with Andrew Hammond and Matt O’Connor?

Next: Pittsburgh Penguins

Pittsburgh Penguins (Marc-Andre Fleury/Matt Murray)

Similar to Montreal, Pittsburgh already possesses their all-star goaltender in Marc-Andre Fleury. The Penguins may feel pressure to move Matt Murray before the trade deadline in attempt to add depth down the stretch. 

Locked in at $5.75 million dollars/year through 2018-19, carrying a no-movement clause, Fleury shows no signs of slowing at 31 years of age. In 2015-16, he’s accumulated 20 wins in 36 starts, with a 2.36GAA and .922 save percentage. Aside from recent shaky playoff performances in past years, Fleury is arguably the most dependable and consistent Penguins player of the last half decade.

Matt Murray, 21, was taken 83rd overall in the 3rd round at the 2012 NHL Entry Draft from OHL’s Sault Ste. Marie Greyhounds. He put up fantastic numbers in his final season of junior in 2013-14 before joining AHL Wilkes-Barre full-time in 2014-15. Arguably the AHL’s best overall performer last season, Murray went 25-10-3 with a 1.58GAA and .941 save percentage. That includes an outstanding 12 shutouts. In 2015-16 with Wilkes-Barre, Murray is 16-8-0 with a 1.97GAA and .933 save percentage, including four shutouts. He saw a short stint with the big club, going 2-1-0 in four games with a 1.72GAA and .938 save percentage.

Jeff Zatkoff is proving an excellent second option for Pittsburgh.  He’s only got three wins in nine starts in 2015-16, with a 2.77GAA and .918 save percentage.  His high goals against can be blamed on Pittsburgh’s defensive woes. The pair of Fleury/Zatkoff help solidify the Penguins in the blue paint for many years to come.

Solution: Trade Matt Murray

There are holes both up front, and on the back-end in Pittsburgh which could make earning a playoff spot difficult. They’re playing hot as-of-late, but things can change in a hurry. Don’t be surprised if GM Jim Rutherford explores trade options to find players that can help this team right now. Adding to the blueline should be priority given how thin the group is, and Kris Letang‘s injury history.

Next: Tampa Bay Lightning

Tampa Bay Lightning (Ben Bishop/Andrei Vasilevskiy)

The pair of Ben Bishop and Andrei Vasilevskiy co-exist well together in Tampa Bay. It’s a situation that’ll work for the time being, until the pair need new contracts. The day will come when one of these netminders is traded, and it’s likely the Russian netminder. 

It sounds like changes will be made to size of goaltender’s equipment sometime in the near future. This makes keeping Ben Bishop the obvious choice given his massive 6’7 frame. A former third round pick in 2005 by the Blues, Bishop bounced from St.Louis to Ottawa, before making his way to Tampa Bay. A late bloomer, Bishop secured his spot as Starter for the Lightning in 2013-14, and hasn’t looked back. At 29-years-old, Bishop is emerging as a top 10, arguably top five goaltender in the NHL.

A highly touted prospect from the KHL in his draft year, Tampa Bay was desperate for a goaltender when they took Vasilevskiy 19th overall in 2012. At 21, Vasilevsky has two years remaining on his entry-level contract ($925,000). He’ll likely be seeking a significant pay raise when his contract is up.

He’s spent his first two years of pro hockey bouncing between the AHL and NHL. In 2014-15, with AHL Syracuse, he went 14-6-5 with a 2.45GAA and .917 save percentage, including two shutouts. With Tampa Bay, Vasilevskiy was 7-5-1 with a 2.36GAA and .918 save percentage, including one shutout.

In 2015-16, with Syracuse, he’s 6-3-1 with a 2.03GAA and .932 save percentage, including one shutout. With Tampa Bay, he’s 8-4-0 with a 2.61GAA and .914 save percentage, including one shutout.

Much like the Anaheim situation, it would be unfair to one or both goalies to force the pair to co-exist long-term. It’s still unclear if Andrei Vasilevskiy can be a quality NHL starter, but there’s surely a lineup of teams willing to roll the dice on that possibility.

Solution: Trade Andrei Vasilevskiy (No Rush)

The Lightning have so much depth that trading Andrei Vasilevskiy is not a necessity. With depth at each position, GM Steve Yzerman can test the waters and continue to listen to offers until the right deal comes along. It’s almost a guarantee that Vasilevskiy is dealt at some point. The window is anywhere between now and the summer following the 2016-17 season.

Next: Winnipeg Jets

Winnipeg Jets (Ondrej Pavelec/Michael Hutchinson/Connor Hellebuyck)

Perhaps the most intriguing crease scenario in the entire league, Winnipeg has some extremely difficult decisions to make moving forward. Not only do they need to decide whether to keep a rare talent in Dustin Byfuglien or their captain Andrew Ladd – but they need to figure out their goaltending situation. 

Jets White Out

Ondrej Pavelec, 28, was originally taken in the second round in 2005 by the Atlanta Thrashers. He was Atlanta’s starter their last two seasons before moving to Winnipeg. Pavelec has seen the majority of starts between 2011-12 to present. After years of mediocre statistics on a bad team, Pavelec had a career year in 2014-15 going 22-16-8 with a 2.28GAA and .920 save percentage, including five shutouts.

Michael Hutchinson also emerged on the scene in 2014-15, appearing in 38 games for Winnipeg as a rookie, going 21-10-5 with a 2.39GAA and .914 save percentage, including two shutouts. The now 25-year-old goaltender was originally drafted in the third round back in 2008 by the Boston Bruins. He was eventually signed by Winnipeg back in July 2013. While not likely capable of carrying the load as starter, Hutchinson has already proven a capable 1A type goaltender that can play fill in temporarily for short periods of time. Winnipeg should feel comfortable moving forward with Hutchinson as their number two. 

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An opportunity made possible by nothing more than an injury to Ondrej Pavelec, it should be of little surprise that Connor Hellebuyck was able to take hold of the number one spot once given the opportunity. A former fifth rounder from 2012, Hellebuyck posted eye-popping statistics in college with UMass-Lowell. He followed that up with one of the top rookie goaltending performances for AHL players in recent years. Hellebuyck posted a record of 28-22-5 with a 2.58GAA and .927 save percentage, including six shutouts for St.John’s.

It was his performance for Team USA at the World Championships that cemented a solid first year of pro hockey. He went on to be team MVP, standing on his head for the Americans. It was at this point we knew he was NHL ready. It was just a matter of time and opportunity, which came sooner than expected when Pavelec went down in late 2015.

Next: NHL Trade Deadline: Top 15 Available Options

Solution: Attempt to Trade Ondrej Pavelec, Buy-Out if Necessary

It may be a cap world, but the Winnipeg Jets are still a budget team. Cap space is rarely an issue in Winnipeg. This is another factor that makes signing Andrew Ladd and Dustin Byfuglien to new contracts difficult. Technically speaking, they could probably afford to re-sign both, but it would be well above their budget. If they’re too stingy to spend up against the cap as is, it’s unlikely Winnipeg would be comfortable moving forward with Ondrej Pavelec’s $3.9 million dollar cap hit through 2016-17. There’s always a chance that Michael Hutchinson could be dealt, but if the Jets can find a taker for Pavelec’s contract, they’d prefer that route. There’s no rush at the moment with Ondrej Pavelec on the IR. So while a trade deadline deal is possible, the Jets goaltending conundrum is more likely dealt with in the offseason.