Carolina Hurricanes NHL Trade Deadline Outlook
Carolina Hurricanes NHL Trade Deadline: Preview, Outlook
Carolina Hurricanes are one of the NHL’s hottest teams in 2016, going 10-4-5 so far through January and February. They’re sitting two points out of a playoff spot (wild-card), but face tough decisions over the next 12 days.
Even if this team were capable of making the postseason, they’re simply not built to compete in April. The Carolina Hurricanes would be swept by the Washington Capitals (or whoever) in the first round.
GM Ron Francis has a number of pending free agents that are looking for new contracts. Eric Staal and Cam Ward headline the list.
Eric Staal
It sounds as though Eric Staal is looking for more money than Ron Francis is willing to give up. This is a situation where Staal may need to dip his feet into free agency. It seems that Eric Staal is seeking more money or term than he’s worth. General managers aren’t throwing around money the same way they did when he signed that seven-year $8.25 million dollar/year contract. It’ll be a reality check for Eric Staal when he realizes Ron Francis is offering fair market value. At that point, there’s a chance Staal returns to Carolina. In the meantime, he’s not going to do anything to help this team down the stretch – so it’s time to trade the asset to get something in return.
Rental Fits (Ranked):
1. Montreal Canadiens
2. Minnesota Wild
3. Ottawa Senators
4. Nashville Predators
5. Detroit Red Wings
Cam Ward
He’s in the last year of a six-year deal carrying an annual cap hit of $6.3 million dollars. Over the course of his contract (2010-11 to present), Cam Ward has played 276 of a possible 433 games over the six-year span. That’s 63.74 percent of the entire franchise’s games over that period (46 starts on average per season).
Ward is arguably a top five, easily top 10 goaltender when fully healthy. The only problem – he doesn’t stay healthy long enough to establish that tag. The thought process of bringing in Eddie Lack in 2015-16 suggests the Carolina Hurricanes were attempting to give themselves a second option, that would also allow Cam Ward extra rest. After suffering a couple more injuries this season, it’s starting to feel reminiscent of Kari Lehtonen in Dallas.
It’s unclear what type of interest teams may have in the summer for Cam Ward. His injury history negates any long-term contract for the 31-year-old goalie. It wouldn’t be shocking to see him sign a two-year $4-4.5 million dollar deal somewhere (which could include returning to Carolina).
Is there a market for Cam Ward leading into the NHL Trade Deadline? He’s day-to-day with a lower body injury right now – sounds as though he’ll return soon. In 36 games, Ward is 16-11-4 with a 2.35GAA and .909 save percentage (some of his best numbers since his early days with Carolina). It’s a hefty $6.3 million dollar cap hit – but the numbers are fairly insignificant at this time of the year.
Let’s not forget that Carolina can easily retain salary from both Eric Staal and Cam Ward.
Rental Fits (Ranked):
1. Montreal Canadiens
2. New York Islanders
3. Nashville Predators
Next: Free Agents and Trade Bait
Carolina Hurricanes NHL Trade Deadline Outlook
Free Agents and Trade Bait
The only other two pending free agents that may garner interest on the open market is F Kris Versteeg and D John Michael Liles. Given his breakout since coming over from the Blackhawks at the beginning of the season, Kris Versteeg is a particularly intriguing player for cap strapped teams looking to add down the stretch. Moving Liles contract may prove to be fairly difficult based on the cap hit, and modified no-trade clause.
Teams that may be interested in Versteeg as a rental:
Anaheim Ducks, Dallas Stars, Los Angeles Kings, Nashville Predators, New York Rangers, Ottawa Senators, Pittsburgh Penguins
Teams that may be interested in Liles as a rental:
Chicago Blackhawks, Dallas Stars, New York Islanders, Pittsburgh Penguins, San Jose Sharks, Tampa Bay Lightning, Washington Capitals
Luke DeCock of the Raleigh News & Observer via NHL Trade Rumors,
“It’s hard to see the Hurricanes and Eric Staal reaching a contract extension that makes sense for both sides. The same can be said for Cam Ward. The Hurricanes only sit a few points out of the playoff race.DeCock thinks it’s time for GM Ron Francis to get whatever he can for Eric Staal, Cam Ward, John-Michael Liles, Kris Versteeg and maybe Jeff Skinner, Jordan Staal or Ryan Murphy.
Even if they have to retain some salary on a pending UFA, getting something is better than nothing. Francis can’t lose Staal or Ward for nothing.”
Ryan Murphy
Proposing to trade the 22-year-old defenseman Ryan Murphy is preposterous. This is a case where over-exposure to your team can be a detrimental. It’s easy to over-value and over-analyze players. As a Leafs/Hurricanes fan who watches Carolina from a distance, Ryan Murphy is getting the Jared Cowen treatment from his days in Ottawa. Expectations were set far too high for Ryan Murphy when he broke into the league as a teenager.
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There isn’t a single defenseman in the entire NHL that’ll tell you they’re the same person or player at 27 that they were at 22. Most blueliners don’t fully round out their game until their mid 20s. There’s always those rare exceptions – Ryan Murphy clearly isn’t one of them. If he needs two or three more years down in Charlotte, so be it.
To even propose the idea of trading him shows the frustration of the fan base. Take it from a Leafs fan, don’t let that frustration cloud logic. Leafs management made the mistake on several occasions of moving players before they had an opportunity to fully develop. Players such as Alex Steen, Tuukka Rask, Jiri Tlusty, among a long list of others comes to mind.
Consider the additions of Noah Hanifin, Brett Pesce, Jaccob Slavin in 2015-16. Not to mention Haydn Fleury, Roland McKeown, Keegan Lowe, Trevor Carrick, among others in the prospect pool – there’s no point in moving Ryan Murphy. Even with a deep pool of defenseman – Murphy has done nothing but hurt his trade value since his rookie season.
This way, in two-three years, the Carolina Hurricanes can use Ryan Murphy on their blueline, or have the choice the trade him once his game’s developed more and his value rises. It’s not as though the Carolina Hurricanes are winning a Stanley Cup in the next few years, so there’s no rush to move assets.
Next: Rask, Skinner, and J.Staal
Carolina Hurricanes NHL Trade Deadline Outlook
Victor Rask
There’s perhaps no better reason to trade Eric Staal than Victor Rask. The defensively responsible 22-year-old two-way forward is having a breakout season with 33 points in 55 games so far. He’s proven himself capable of assuming the second line center role. It’s important for Carolina to give Rask those top six minutes to ensure themselves he is capable moving forward. If he’s not, it changes the landscape of what Carolina does on the trade market. Why not roll with Jordan Staal or Elias Lindholm in that first line center role for the last 25 games?
Jordan Staal
He signed a 10-year $60 million dollar contract ($6 million dollar cap hit) that won’t expire until 2023 – which also includes a no-trade clause.
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While not an impossible contract to move, it may prove difficult. On the one hand, it’s a fairly comfortable cap hit for the caliber of player. At the same time, how confident would you be as a GM that he can maintain that level of play until the age of 35?
Considering he’s only 27-years-old playing up the middle, it’s likely the Carolina Hurricanes could find a trade partner, if they decide to shake the core up and move in a younger direction. If Elias Lindholm and Victor Rask reach their potential, moving Jordan Staal becomes a much easier decision.
Best Fits (Ranked):
1. Minnesota Wild
2. Montreal Canadiens
3. Toronto Maple Leafs
4. Columbus Blue Jackets
5. Nashville Predators
Jeff Skinner
Health concerns over Jeff Skinner had him rumored to be on the trade block last summer. Only problem? They’re no more health issues for the 23-year-old who’s only missed 16 games over the last three seasons (appearing in 57 games in 2015-16). The concussion history puts him at constant risk, but Pittsburgh’s Sidney Crosby is in the exact same situation.
Drafted 7th overall in 2010, Skinner went on to capture the Calder Trophy as an 18-year-old with 63 points in 82 games in 2010-11. His totals dipped the next two seasons due to concussions, but rose again in 2013-14, producing 54 points in 71 games. His production fell off in 2014-15, only putting up 31 points in 77 games. Perhaps this is what triggered trade rumors? For anyone who’s followed the NHL closely, we know you can’t put too much stock into one bad season. Back on track in 2015-16, Skinner has 19 goals and 13 assists (32 points) in 57 games so far. He’s on pace for 27 goals (48 points) in 2015-16.
GM Ron Francis should be looking at Jeff Skinner as one the main core pieces moving forward. There’s been admitted up-and-down’s to his NHL career thus far, but it feels as though he’s just starting to scratch the surface in terms of his production capabilities. Skilled snipers are hard to come by. The objective of hockey is to score more goals than your opponent – Jeff Skinner can help with that.
Next: Wrap-Up/Final Thoughts
Carolina Hurricanes NHL Trade Deadline Outlook
Wrap-Up
It’s that time of year when non-playoff teams can offer a short-stint of NHL experience to their AHL prospects. For many of these players, it’s seemingly a try-out for the following season as general managers attempt to gauge their options for the offseason.
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Cardiac Cane
The Carolina Hurricanes in particular have a couple intriguing forwards we need to see matched-up against NHL talent – Derek Ryan and Sergey Tolchinsky. Ryan was signed last summer as a European free agent, while Tolchinsky was a human highlight reel at Carolina’s rookie camp.
Another guy who showed promise during his stint with the club in 2015-16 is Brock McGinn. It’s important to give him a little more NHL experience – considering he should be a full-time NHLer in the near future.
One thing’s for sure, GM Ron Francis is destined to be one of the busier general managers over the next 12 days leading into the NHL Trade Deadline. He’s got some tough decisions to make – which should give us a clear outline of the Carolina Hurricanes thought process moving forward. If they choose to hold on to Cam Ward, Eric Staal, and company – we know Ron Francis has confidence and intention of retaining both players.
It really is a case similar to the San Jose Sharks. For years, they’ve had the opportunity to trade two main core guys in Joe Thornton and Patrick Marleau, but insist on trying to win with the pair. Carolina’s situation is a little different given that Cam Ward captured the Conn Smythe in their 2005-06 Stanley Cup win – the same year Eric Staal went off for 100 points in the regular season.
Next: 2016 NHL Mock Draft 2.0: Rounds 1-3
There’s an admitted attachment to both players for this writer – but sometimes you have to make decisions with your head, opposed to your heart. Just as San Jose has little chance of winning with Marleau-Thornton, the time has passed in Carolina for winning with Ward-Staal. They’ll go down as two of the franchise’s most prestigious players over their short tenure – but it’s time to move on and give the Carolina Hurricanes core group a new identity.
*statistical information was obtained from NHL.com and Hockeydb.com. Salary information was obtained from Generalfanager.com