Hockey Analytics: Project Helium – Changes to Regulated Goalie Value II
By Brian Draus
Hockey Analytics: Project Helium – Making Adjustments to Regulated Goalie Value (RGV) Formula Part II
As we continue to move forward with Project Helium (a set of self-constructed hockey analytics formulas), more adjustments are necessary to Regulated Goalie Value (RGV).
Since the odd man rushes were skewing the value of the formula, those were the variables that need adjustment.
“Project Helium” Hockey Analytics
– Carbon Block Analysis/Review
– Regulated Plus/Minus Analysis/Review
*For those variables with no changes, there will not be an explanation underneath.
Those variables in just bold have no changes, but those with both bold and italics have changes.
Click the links to see the introduction and first update to RGV.
(a)Clean Breakaway (0.533)
A1:+(0.03002) pressure from behind
A11:+(0.20102) if goal given up in last 10 minutes of 2nd Pd.
A12:+(0.300201) if goal is given up in the first 10 minutes of 3rd Pd.
A13:+(0.40102) if goal is given up in last ten minutes of 3rd Pd. or OT
A14:+(0.010306) if goal is given up in Game 6 or 7 of a playoff series. Add C14 to any of the above.
A20:x(0.900103) add this in any case where variable “A” is added to A1 AND A11 through A14. Just A and A1 added together does not create a scenario where A20 is used.
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*(a:0.735 A20: N/A)
The reason I only need to involve variable “A20” when there is a combination of three variables is due to the fact that the purpose of “A20” is simple.
Lower the value of the formula in order to provide a formula that will hopefully show a goalies worth by the type of goals he allows.
That is also the reason that I lessened the value of variable “A”, to guarantee a result below one.
Here is an example:
When not to multiply A20: Just “A” and A+A1
When to multiply A20: A+A1+ and any of A11 through A14, or just A+A11 through A14
The reason I am multiplying a number less than one is to keep the outcome below one. If I used a number above one, it wouldn’t serve it’s purpose.
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(b) 2 on 1 (0.6369)
B1:+(-0.020108) score on wide open net
B2:+(-0.030106) score on multiple rebounds
B3:+(0.0506) score with defender involved and goalie in position
B11:+(0.20203) if goal is given up in the last ten minutes of 2nd Pd.
B12:+(0.306008) if goal is given up in the first 10 minutes of 3rd Pd.
B13:+(0.50103) if goal is given up in last ten minutes of 3rd Pd. or OT
B14:+(0.0203061) if goal is given up in Game 6 or 7 of a playoff series. Add B14 to any of the above.
B20:x(0.723103) add this in any case where variable “B” is added to any of B1 through B3 AND any of B11 through B14. Just “B” by itself does not create a scenario where B20 is used.
While the purpose is the exact same as above, the rules are a little bit different. Variable “B” must still be added only when B11 through B14 are involved.
It is also acceptable to use variable “B” if any of variables B1 through B3 are involved.
So in other words, if it is just B and B1 through B3 are in the calculus, B20 doesn’t get used. However, they can be used in all cases when B11-B14 are involved (even if B1 through B3 are used)
*(b:0.894, B20: N/A)
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“c”: 3 on 2 (0.80021)
C1:+(-0.00902) score with defender screening goalie
C2:+(-0.000604) score with defender/offensive player tipping puck (you can add C1 and C2 together)
C3:+(0.08408) score from beyond the faceoff circle with defender screen/puck being tipped
C11:+(0.301021) if goal is given up in last 10 minutes of 2nd Pd.
C12:+(0.40203) if goal is given up in the first 10 minutes of 3rd Pd.
C13:+(0.501901) if goal is given up in the last 10 minutes of 3rd Pd. or OT
C14:+(0.03105) if goal is given up in Game 6 or 7 of a playoff series.
C20:x(0.603106) add this is any case when variable “C” is added to any of C1 through C3 AND C11 thorough C14.
Once again, basically the same exact purpose.
The rules are the exact same except for the fact that all of C1 though C3 can be added together. Otherwise, there is no difference in the formula.
*(c:0.9293, C20: N/A)
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(d)Neutral Zone goals (1.6171)
D1:+(0.0043) if shot between the blue line and the red line
D2:+(0.0519) if shot before the red line
D3:+(-0.029093) if shot within 4 feet from the blue line (closest to the goalie)
D11:+(0.30406) if goal is given up in last 10 minutes of 2nd Pd.
D12:+(0.51006) if goal is given up in first 10 minutes of 3rd Pd.
D13:+(0.530301) if goal is given up in the last 10 minutes of 3rd Pd. or OT
D14:+(0.05031) if goal is given up in Game 6 or 7 of a playoff series.
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(e)either face-off circle goals (0.992)
E1:+(-0.07041) score with defender screening goalie
E2:+(-0.00503) score with defender/offensive player tipping puck (you can add E1 and E2 together)
F3:+(0.16061) score just above the face-off circle (in between blue line and circle)
E11:+(0.21305) if goal is given up in last 10 minutes of 2nd Pd.
E12:+(0.22016) if goal is given up in first ten minutes of 3rd Pd.
E13:+(0.311031) if goal is giving up in last 10 minutes of 3rd Pd. or OT
E14:+(0.03021) if goal is given up in Game 6 or 7 of a playoff series.
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(f)High slot goals (0.9326) – if slap shot (0.968) – if wrist shot
F1:+(-0.06032) score with defender screening goalie
F2:+(-0.00401) score with defender/offensive player tipping puck (you can add F1 and F2 together)
F11:+(0.21204) if goal is given up in last 10 minutes of 2nd Pd.
F12:+(0.220106) if goal is given up in first ten minutes of 3rd Pd.
F13:+(0.30102) if goal is given up in last 10 minutes of 3rd Pd. or OT
F14:+(0.0302101) if goal is given up in Game 6 or 7 of a playoff series
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(G)Low slot goals (0.9215) – if slap shot (0.946) – if wrist shot
G1:+(-0.05031) score with defender screening goalie
G2:+(-0.0030011) score with defender/offensive player tipping puck (you can add G1 and G2 together)
G11:+(0.20121) if goal is given up in last ten minutes of 2nd Pd.
G12:+(0.2023) if goal is given up in first ten minutes of 3rd Pd.
G13:+(0.30202) if goal is given up in last ten minutes of 3rd Pd. or OT
G14:+(0.0401003) if goal is given up in Game 6 or 7 of a playoff series
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(h)Either point goals (1.3026)
H1:+(-0.08011) score with defender screening goalie
H2:+(-0.0060101) score with defender/offensive player tipping puck (you can add H1 and H2 together)
H11:+(0.40134) if goal is given up in last 10 minutes of 2nd Pd.
H12:+(0.41026) if goal is given up in first 10 minutes of 3rd Pd.
H13:+(0.501802) if goal is given up in last 10 minutes of 3rd Pd or OT
H14:+(0.050202) if goal is given up in Game 6 or 7 of a playoff series
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(i) Other blue-line goals (1.4062)
I1:+(-0.061101) score with defender screening goalie
I2:+(-0.00501) score with defender/offensive player tipping puck (you can ad I1 and I2 together)
I11:+(0.50123) if goal is given up last 10 minutes of 2nd Pd.
I12:+(0.510204) if goal is given up in first 10 minutes of 3rd Pd.
I13:+(0.60308) if goal is given up in last 10 minutes of 3rd Pd. or OT
I14:+(0.06012) if goal is given up in Game 6 or 7 of a playoff series
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(j)In front of the net goals (0.8139) if take pass and score (no rebound) – any other goal in front counts as well
J1:+(-0.0301) score on first rebound
J2:+(-0.002002) score on multiple rebounds
J11:+(0.1001) if goal is given up in last 10 minutes of 2nd Pd.
J12:+(0.185) if goal is given up in first 10 minutes of 3rd Pd.
J13:+(0.2013) if goal is given up in last ten minutes of 3rd Pd. or OT
J14:+(0.00204) if goal is given up in Game 6 or 7 of a playoff series.
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**(all variables underneath take precedence over those in the same circumstance in variables D-J)
Power Play Goals
**(k)5 on 3 (-0.030102)
K1:+(0.050602) if goal is given up in the last 10 minutes of the 2nd Pd.
K2:+(0.049031) if goal is given up in the first 10 minutes of the 3rd Pd.
K3:+(0.048301) if goal is given up in the last 10 minutes of the 3rd pd. or OT
K4:+(0.0002) if goal is given up in Game 6 or 7 of a playoff series
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**(l)4 on 3 (-0.02021)
L1:+(0.05081) if goal is given up in the last 10 minutes of the 2nd Pd.
L2:+(0.052611) if goal is given up in the first 10 minutes of the 3rd Pd.
L3:+(0.05906) if goal is given up in the last 10 minutes of the 3rd Pd. or OT
L4:+(0.000202) if goal is given up in Game 6 or 7 of a playoff series
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**(m)5 on 4(-0.0200203)
M1:+(0.0608303) if goal is given up in the last 10 minutes of the 2nd Pd.
M2:+(0.060903) if goal is given up in the first 10 minutes of the 3rd Pd.
M3:+(0.06093) if goal is given up in the last 10 minutes of the 3rd Pd. or OT
M4:+(0.0002) if goal is given up in Game 6 or 7 of a playoff series.
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Even strength goals (non 5-5)
**(n)(4 on 4) (-0.010402)
N1:+(0.0608306) if goal is given up in the last 10 minutes of the 2nd Pd.
N2:+(0.0609103) if goal is given up in the first 10 minutes of the 3rd Pd.
N3:+(0.061836) if goal is given up in the last 10 minutes of the 3rd Pd. or OT
N4:+(0.000101) if goal is given up in Game 6 or 7 of a playoff series.
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**(O) overtime situation in the regular season (3 on 3) (-0.0103061)
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One area I want to address is shorthanded goals. Since the whole purpose of this formula is to value the goal on where it was scored, I decided not to involve shorthanded goals. While I do have a variable for power plays, that is going to create more scoring chances than a penalty kill.
Plus, keep in mind that this whole formula charts goals on where they are scored. And a shorthanded goal could be scored on a two-on-one break.
Also, in regards to the odd man rush variables, they take precedent over power play goals. What I am talking about is the formula doesn’t add anything from variables K-O.
In my opinion, it doesn’t make sense to involve power plays, when the offense team already has a man advantage against the goalie.
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Overall, this formula just got a little tweak, which it needed. I am hoping the fact that multiplying will help reduce the outcome of the odd man rush variables. I may need to adjust the variables that get multiplied, just due to the fact that it may not turn out a high enough result. Once it gets tested in a live setting a few times, I will be able to do that, but until then this will have to work.
Stay tuned.
Note: All results of RGV are rounded to the ten-thousandth place as before