Chicago Blackhawks Goaltending: Project Helium – Stanley Cup Finals Edition (Corey Crawford vs. Antti Niemi) RGV Study
So far, all of my statistical analysis regarding Regulated Goalie Value (RGV) has involved regular season statistics. For this study, I am going to analyze two Stanley Cup Final games, from 2010 and 2013 respectively.
Since the Chicago Blackhawks won the Cup both times, I thought I would use their goalies for the study.
Considering the fact that they won it with two different goaltenders, it should be an interesting to analyze both. The goaltenders will be Antti Niemi (2010) and Corey Crawford (2013).
I thought it would make sense to study a pair of games in which both goalies allowed a significant amount of goals. For Niemi, I will be analyzing Game 4 of the Stanley Cup Finals versus the Philadelphia Flyers. The game was played in Philadelphia, which the Blackhawks lost 5-3.
*just a reminder, I count goals by where they are shot from, not if they are tipped in.
The Scoring Recap (Philadelphia Goals Only)
Click on the link to see what each variable means
(1st Pd)
4:35 PPG: J+M
14:48: J
19:23: J
(3rd Pd)
6:43: G (wrist shot)+G2+G12
19:35 EN: (no value on RGV for this goal)
Since the defense in front of Niemi in this game wasn’t the best, his RGV was lower than one per goal (3.567).
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That is different from any of the other studies I have conducted, considering the fact that Niemi’s RGV was nearly one tenth of a point below one per goal. I think a lot of this has to do with the fact that not as many variables were used, which is different from past studies.
Now, Niemi needs to be compared to Corey Crawford.
Once again, I will be analyzing Game 4 of the Stanley Cup Finals, this time from 2013. The difference between Niemi and Crawford is that even though Crawford allowed one more goal, the Chicago Blackhawks were able to pull out a 6-5 OT win over the Boston Bruins.
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The Scoring Recap
(1st Pd)
14:43 PPG: E+E1+E3*+M
(2nd Pd)
14:43: J+J1+J11
17:22 PPG: J+M+M1
(3rd Pd)
2:05: E+E12
12:14: F+F13
*there is a typo in the RGV article “F3” should be “E3”.
In contrast to Niemi, Crawford’s RGV value for this game was 5.3159.
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That is possibly the highest per goal value of any of the studies I have performed so far. A lot of this is due to one factor, that being the fact that Crawford gave up four of his five goals past the halfway point of the game. That will elevate an RGV value quickly, as a late goal is meant to be more meaningful, and is penalized heavily. Therefore, that is the difference.
Considering the difference in this study, there is one thing to take away from it. That being the fact that late goals are an RGV killer. Not to mention the fact that the goals Niemi gave up were right in front of the net (some of them), compared to Crawford’s which weren’t as close.
Also, Crawford’s RGV would have been higher assuming the fact that two of the goals weren’t scored on the power play. Since that situation helps, not hurts a goalie so Crawford was lucky to have two power play goals scored against him.
Overall, I think it is a bit interesting how significant the fact that goals scored right in front of the net can actually help keep a goalies RGV below one. As mentioned above, the more goals given up early is also a help to the netminder as well.
Next: Project Helium: James Reimer vs. Jonathan Bernier RGV
Considering the fact that he can be penalized significantly (in some cases) it makes it difficult for him to keep his per goal value (PGV) below one (by about 0.1 or more). Anything in the opposite direction is poor, and in between is average.
Keep in mind all of this is going to stay in flux for a while. And I am talking about everything, from each variable is worth to a good/bad score. Until then, this is what I will go by. Expect more soon.
sources: http://blackhawks.nhl.com/ www.youtube.com