NHL Las Vegas: Expansion Draft Protection List Decisions Roundtable
NHL Las Vegas: Most Teams Are Facing Difficult Decisions Regarding Their Protection List for Next June’s Expansion Draft. In This Week’s Group Roundtable, the Puck Prose Team Highlights Some of the Most Complicated Situations and Players Who Could Become Targets for the NHL’s 31st Franchise
NHL Las Vegas is still without a name – that announcement has been pushed back until November. Owner Bill Foley and GM George McPhee do however continue to build their front office behind the scenes.
While it might be too early for most in the hockey world, Vegas is already preparing for next June’s expansion draft. In fact, George McPhee announced they would hold monthly mock drafts to give their management team some practice before the real thing. This should also help NHL Las Vegas figure out which players they need to focus on for evaluation purposes.
Unfortunately, there’s no way to know with certainty (or near certainty) which players will be available until the final shake-up of roster movement. We should continue to see trades throughout the season leading up to the deadline, then, the NHL will hold a special roster movement period following the playoffs (before protection lists are due).
Expansion rules have been tweaked slightly with intentions of making NHL Las Vegas a more competitive franchise from the get-go. This means that virtually every franchise stands to lose a quality player/prospect.
So, which teams are facing the toughest decisions? Who could be a potential premium target for George McPhee and company? We turn to our team of writers to see what they think.
Ryan Ritchie (Site Expert)
On June 21st, 2017, Las Vegas, the NHL’s 31st franchise, will select a roster of 30 players (one from each team) in an expansion draft. By that point, it will be 17 years since the NHL last expanded back in 2000. This time around, the league is determined to make sure that Las Vegas will be competitive from day one which has led to some rule changes. It’s not the tweaking of rules however that stands to leave higher quality players available in 2017.
Over those nearly two decades, we’ve seen a major shift in not only the game itself, but the way teams are built. We now live in a salary cap world where every dollar counts and you build through the draft stocking your prospect pool. This might ultimately lead some teams to protect prospects on cheaper deals in hopes of shedding a bigger contract.
While it’s still too early to think about expansion for most of us in the hockey world, you can bet GM George McPhee is looking at the 2016-17 season as a giant 1230 game tryout. He won’t know with certainty who might be available next June, but it’s not difficult to identify which teams face the toughest decisions.
Of course, some will make decisions easier on themselves by moving bodies out; however, there’s still a handful of teams destined to lose a quality player no matter how busy they are on the trade market.
In a Tough Spot
Just look at the Chicago Blackhawks. Due to no-movement clauses, GM Stan Bowman is forced to use eight of 11 slots already – and it doesn’t look like any of those players are being traded anytime soon. There’s absolutely no way they can save four defenseman, leaving Trevor van Riemsdyk, Ville Pokka, and Viktor Svedberg potentially exposed.
Tampa Bay is in a similar scenario. GM Steve Yzerman needs to figure out whether he should protect four defensemen and lose a quality forward, or only save three defenders and risk losing someone on the back end. Those decisions become even more difficult once the inevitable Ben Bishop deal takes place.
Truth be told, almost every team (aside from maybe Arizona and Toronto) has tough choices to make. Buffalo for example risks losing a quality forward if they want to protect all four defense (Rasmus Ristolainen, Zach Bogosian, Dmitry Kulikov (UFA), and Jake McCabe). The Islanders definitely stand to lose a defender with Johnny Boychuk, Nick Leddy, Travis Hamonic, Calvin de Haan, Thomas Hickey, and Ryan Pulock all needing protection on the back end.
Music City Stands Above the Rest
There is one team in particular that stands out to me, though; the Nashville Predators.
It seems the Preds are destined to hand Las Vegas a top selection no matter what. Their choices are to either save four defensemen and lose a quality forward, or protect seven forwards and lose Mattias Ekholm. You’d have to imagine that GM David Poile would lean towards saving Roman Josi, P.K. Subban, Ryan Ellis, and Mattias Ekholm.
So, who does that leave up front? Filip Forsberg and Ryan Johansen are locks occupying two of the final four saves. That forces James Neal, Craig Smith, Colin Wilson, Calle Jarnkrok, Viktor Arvidsson, Colton Sissons, and Miikka Salomaki (among others) to battle it out for those final two slots.
Put it this way folks, it doesn’t matter how busy Nashville is on the trade market this season, there’s just no way to avoid the inevitable loss of a quality player next June.
As I step into George McPhee’s shoes here, I’d have several players on my radar. You know at least one of Mattias Ekholm, James Neal, Craig Smith, or Colin Wilson stands to be available. Let’s call that our A grade list. Even if David Poile moves one of those bodies or protect them via conditional pick, a B list of emerging young forwards in Calle Jarnkrok, Viktor Arvidsson, Colton Sissons, Miika Salomaki, and Austin Watson is a solid second option. Imagine how much more difficult the decisions become in Music City if even one of those six B grades has a breakout campaign in 2016-17.
One individual that should be near the top of Las Vegas’ list is Swedish center Calle Jarnkrok.
He earned a six-year contract ($2 million dollar cap hit) this summer after posting a career best 16 goals, 14 assists (30 points) in 2015-16. It was just his second full season after spending the previous two years in the AHL (Grand Rapids/Milwaukee) – Nashville acquired the Red Wings 2010 2nd rounder back in March 2014 as part of the David Legwand deal.
So, what makes Jarnkrok a prime target?
How about the fact that he’s a 25-year-old two-way center under contract until 2022? What if I told you he averaged over 16/minutes of ice-time/game last season? Not enough? Calle also finished second behind Craig Smith (6) with four game-winning goals. He took 799 face-offs (45.8 win percentage), including the majority of shorthanded draws. He only averaged around 40 seconds of ice-time/game on the man advantage (power play), but saw close to 2 minutes/game on the penalty kill.
Long story short, Las Vegas would be wise to bet there’s more left in the tank in terms of potential. Just don’t be surprised if he starts to find that next gear in the upcoming season as the Preds look to finally get over that elusive hump.
Tanner Rebelo (Contributor)
The NHL expansion draft is scaring a lot of fans around the National Hockey League in the fear of losing their favorite players. While teams are able to protect a good portion of their best players, there will still be solid players for Las Vegas to acquire.
Some teams have the chance to unload salaries in the expansion draft by allowing Vegas to pick a player with a fairly big cap hit.
In the NHL a good portion of veteran contracts include a no-trade clause or partial NTC – the expansion draft is a way to unload a player and not have to buy out the rest of his contract.
For example, the Boston Bruins are a team that may look to take advantage of this, they may allow Zdeno Chara and David Krejci to be unprotected in the hopes Vegas wants to take on their salaries.
Letting Chara be picked is smart move for the team to unload from his $4.25M contract that he simply cannot live up to at his advanced age of 39.
Krejci is actually a player I would protect but if the team resigns center Ryan Spooner they would most likely look to get Krejci of the roster if he cannot regain his prior form before he underwent two hip surgeries.
The Bruins will most likely protect:
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1. Patrice Bergeron
2. David Backes
3. Brad Marchand
4. Matt Beleskey
5. David Pastrnak
6. Torey Krug
7. Colin Miller
8. Adam McQuaid
9.Tuukka Rask
The black and gold will have a tough decision on whether to protect Adam McQuaid or Kevan Miller, but I think management will protect long-time player McQuaid barring him from having another unlucky injury-ridden season that has plagued his entire career. Protecting these players open up a couple of solid options that could be on Las Vegas’ radar.
1.David Krejci
2.Ryan Spooner
3.Zdeno Chara
4.Malcolm Subban
5.Jimmy Hayes
Bottom line is the Bruins could set up their protection around key long-term assets while allowing some of their higher priced under-performing players be available to NHL Las Vegas. If they do indeed let Krejci go unprotected it would be smart for Vegas to select him as long as he looks healthy this upcoming season. But at that point the Bruins are likely to protect him, at which point Vegas should select goaltending prospect Malcolm Subban from the Bruins in the hopes he is the future of their franchise in the net.
Tim Redinger (NHL Director)
I think this is going to be a difficult call right now, because teams have a whole year to prepare for the expansion draft; and rosters will change before Las Vegas actually gets to pick their team. The NHL is going to great lengths to make sure that Las Vegas is competitive right out the gate – and some teams will pay the price.
With the restrictive rules that teams are only going to be able to protect a good portion of their rosters – is going to help most teams protect enough players that it won’t really have a major effect on their core. That being said, there are going to be a few selections that are going to have an impact, but some can be possibly good for the team that loses a player. The biggest two teams that stand to be helped by the expansion draft are the Buffalo Sabres and the Edmonton Oilers.
The Oilers and Sabres are on the tail end of rebuilds and are poised to break out into the upper echelons of the league. But they still have their problems. The Edmonton Oilers need defense, and they are also going to get to a point where one of their first overall picks is going to want to get paid. They may be able to convince Las Vegas to take one of those higher end picks off their roster that is going to pull them down in the future.
For Buffalo, certainly you have some older players that are fan favorites, and others that fans want to see gone. One thing about Buffalo fans – they get attached to their fan favorites, and as an insider, (full disclosure, I am a Sabres fan); they get too attached.
Two players that the team might be hoping that the Las Vegas Club takes is Tyler Ennis or Matt Moulson. Ennis would be the bigger loss to the team, he is going to have a breakout year after struggling with concussions last year. Matt Moulson is the teams new Ville Leino – and if he can’t get it together this year, he is going to be hard pressed to find work in the NHL again. Being selected by the Las Vegas Hockey Club might be the best thing for him, as it might spark him in a veteran role to at least try and finish his career on a high note.
Teams like the Chicago Blackhawks, Boston Bruins, Pittsburgh Penguins; those teams have for the last ten years cycled players through the various lines around their core with that insert name here type mentality – and have done well with that. Many teams will recover from the expansion draft.
Daniel Mcclue (Contributor)
Ah, the expansion draft. Congratulations to Las Vegas for getting their professional sports team, and congratulations to the NHL for having the guts to be the first sports organization to do so.
Two teams, in particular, will have the toughest protection decisions in the draft; the Anaheim Ducks and Boston Bruins.
The Ducks have a bubbling pool of fantastic defensive talent. Should they choose the 7/3/1 protection scheme they can protect Rickard Rakell. However, they then stand the risk of losing two out of; Sami Vatanen, Cam Fowler, Simon Despres, Hampus Lindholm or Josh Manson. Protecting four defencemen would mean one less could be plucked from their grasp and is softened by the progression of Shea Theodore. This would mean Las Vegas Gambling Lions could select Rakell.
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Meanwhile, the Bruins have to protect forwards David Krejci, David Backes, Patrice Bergeron and Brad Marchand.
Their defense corps is thin – Zdeno Chara and Torey Krug are the obvious protections, while a solid season from Colin Miller should see him join the two. It wouldn’t be the most surprising thing in the world to see Boston protect either Adam McQuaid or Kevan Miller. It would, however, be the stupidest decision.
Up front, David Pastrnak, Ryan Spooner and Matt Beleskey will join the four guys protected.
While the Bruins have more talent in their forwards to choose from at the draft (Jimmy Hayes, Seth Griffith), the Ducks have way more options on defense. Anaheim stands to lose more.
Barring a trade – The Ducks will protect Corey Perry, Ryan Getzlaf, Ryan Kesler, Jakob Silfverberg, Vatanen, Fowler, Kevin Bieska and Lindholm.
Rakell is the obvious talent but Josh Manson could offer the Las Vegas Glittery Slippers a lot more. Manson is a right-handed defenseman, something of a luxury in today’s market. With just 18 points in 99 career games so far he won’t offer much offensive upside, but averages over 18 minutes of ice-time a game. Last season he dished out 158 hits, 67 blocks and 18 takeaways. Only two seasons of experience in the NHL could be a sticking point, but he offers potential shut down ability.
Plus, anyone who is willing to scrap Milan Lucic whilst new to the game gets extra credit in my eyes.
Aly Dhanani (Contributor)
There a few teams in particular that come to mind when thinking about the upcoming expansion draft. The Pittsburgh Penguins are faced with a very unique situation. Not only are Matt Murray and Marc-Andre Fleury battling for the role as the starting goalie, but young goaltender Tristan Jarry will be pushing for an NHL role as soon as next year. If Jarry (who is ineligible for the expansion draft) blows away expectations in the AHL, and Fleury has a great year as the starting goalie, do you trade Murray for a massive return and protect Fleury? It’s something to think about, but if I was Pens GM Jim Rutherford, I would trade Fleury nevertheless.
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Adding to Rutherford’s stress, the Penguins may be forced to leave rookie defender Derrick Pouliot unprotected next summer. It’s only logical to protect the famous HBK line, but that, along with protecting Crosby, Malkin, & Hornqvist, would leave a maximum of three people on defense to protect.
The three choices are fairly obvious: Kris Letang, Olli Maatta, and Brian Dumoulin. Dumoulin turned in an excellent performance during the playoffs and has proved himself as a top four defender. Where does that leave Pouliot, who will undoubtedly be targeted by NHL Las Vegas?
Some other teams in tough situations include the Anaheim Ducks, who (at this point in time) will be forced to expose one of Rickard Rakell, Jakob Silfverberg, or Cam Fowler in the expansion draft.
Goaltenders are stealing the headlines in expansion draft speculation, and for good reason. The Colorado Avalanche will have to choose between Calvin Pickard and Semyon Varlamov, the Lightning will likely trade one of Ben Bishop, and the Bruins are faced with yet another conundrum; the younger Malcolm Subban, or the more proven Tuukka Rask?
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If I’m Vegas GM George McPhee, I’d be crossing my fingers one of Minnesota’s defenders Matt Dumba or Jonas Brodin will be available in the expansion draft (which is a real possibility).
Also useful to McPhee is that he gets an extended period of time to contact Unrestricted Free Agents before the expansion draft. That means they can be confident in picking a UFA like Alex Radulov or Ben Bishop if there’s a verbal agreement in place.