NHL Line Projections for 2016-17 (Central Division)
NHL Line Projections for 2016-17 – Training Camps are Coming to a Close as Teams Face Those Final Crucial Roster Cuts. Now, With Only 5 Days Until the New NHL Season, Depth Charts Begin to Take Form. Projected Line Combos/Defensive Pairings in the Central Division
Moving on with the season preview, we turn our focus to NHL line projections for all 30 teams. Since we’re only seven five days away from a brand new season, prospective opening night rosters are becoming much clearer. At this point, most teams are making those final decisions and rosters should start to take shape in the final couple preseason games.
Shifting over to the Western Conference, we turn our focus to the Central Division. This is arguably the toughest division in hockey, and the numbers tend to back it up. The Dallas Stars, St. Louis Blues, and Chicago Blackhawks all produced more points/had a better record than first place in the Pacific. They’ve also got the Nashville Predators and Minnesota Wild that seem to be in contention every year. Lastly, we come to the Winnipeg Jets and Colorado Avalanche, who are both looking to improve after a disappointing 2015-16 campaign.
*It’s worth noting these are simply early NHL line projections for how things might shake up on opening night/early on in the season.
NHL Line Projections in 2016-17 (Central Division)
Colorado Avalanche
Gabriel Landeskog – Nathan MacKinnon – Matt Duchene
Mikko Rantanen – Carl Soderberg – Jarome Iginla
Joe Colborne – Mikhail Grigorenko – Blake Comeau
Andreas Martinsen – John Mitchell – Cody McLeod
xs: Rene Bourque, Mike Sislo
Francois Beauchemin – Tyson Barrie
Nikita Zadorov – Erik Johnson
Fedor Tyutin – Eric Gelinas
xs: Patrick Wiercioch
Semyon Varlamov – Calvin Pickard
*Assuming Rantanen will be ready for opening night
This who should play center debate with Nathan MacKinnon and Matt Duchene needs to end. They either need to split them up and slide Carl Soderberg to the third line (not a favorable option), or trade Matt Duchene. Something’s gotta give, and perhaps a slow start out of the gates might be enough to initiate a trade.
We’re predicting that preseason performer Rene Bourque earns an NHL contract after coming into camp on a professional tryout offer. He can slide in pretty much anywhere in the Avs bottom six forward group but could start the year in the press box.
That third line could be very important to Colorado‘s success in 2016-17. We all know how important depth scoring is in today’s NHL, and there’s an exclamation mark on it in a tough central division that includes the offensively poised Dallas Stars. It could be a big year for Mikhail Grigorenko to finally take that next step in his development.
The goaltending situation will be an intriguing scenario to watch this year. Joe Sakic can only save one goaltender, and logic might suggest the younger, cheaper option makes the most sense. If the Avs want to feel comfortable protecting Calvin Pickard (leaving Semyon Varlamov exposed), he’ll need to see a little extra time in the crease this year.
Winnipeg Jets
Nikolaj Ehlers – Mark Scheifele – Blake Wheeler
Patrik Laine – Bryan Little – Joel Armia
Kyle Connor – Mathieu Perreault – Drew Stafford
Alexander Burmistrov – Adam Lowry – Chris Thorburn
xs: Marko Dano, Anthony Peluso
Josh Morrissey – Dustin Byfuglien
Toby Enstrom – Tyler Myers
Ben Chiarot – Paul Postma
xs: Mark Stuart
Ondrej Pavelec – Michael Hutchinson
*Shawn Matthias in considered week-to-week with an upper body injury
** Jacob Trouba still unsigned
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That first line is pretty much set in stone. Most believe that Drew Stafford is likely to play alongside Patrik Laine and Bryan Little; I, however, believe that Joel Armia is a better fit and also allows the Jets to spread out their scoring and give another rookie more of a veteran presence on the third line. Kyle Connor seems likely to begin the year in Winnipeg, so why not pair him with Mathieu Perreault and Drew Stafford?
Without Jacob Trouba, things get a bit interesting. We proclaimed Josh Morrissey the answer when the trade request was first reported, even going as far to say that the rumored asking price may be incorrect. Looks like Morrissey should get an opportunity to prove he can replace Jacob Trouba. Long-term, he might be better suited on the second pairing, but for his rookie season, Byfuglien is the perfect defensive partner.
As you can tell, there’s no Connor Hellebuyck. We wouldn’t put it past GM Kevin Cheveldayoff to waive Pavelec and send him to AHL Manitoba. Difficult to imagine a budget team burying a contract like that though. The Jets may be hoping for an early injury to a starter in hopes of a quick deal to make room for Hellebuyck.
St. Louis Blues
Robby Fabbri – Jori Lehtera – Vladimir Tarasenko
David Perron – Paul Stastny – Alex Steen
Dmitrij Jaskin – Patrik Berglund – Nail Yakupov
Scottie Upshall – Kyle Brodziak – Ryan Reaves
xs: Magnus Paajarvi, Ty Rattie
Jay Bouwmeester – Alex Pietrangelo
Joel Edmundson – Kevin Shattenkirk
Carl Gunnarsson – Colton Parayko
xs: Robert Bortuzzo
*Jaden Schwartz out 3-4 weeks
The short-term loss of Jaden Schwartz hurts the line combinations. Realistically, if the St. Louis Blues hope to get over that elusive hump, they’ll need Schwartz and Tarasenko to shine together. Most attach Jori Lehtera at the hip to Tarasenko – this needs to stop. Lehtera isn’t a first line center, he’s a second liner at best. He can’t produce enough points to play alongside the Tarasenk-show. The Blues need to stick either Paul Stastny, maybe even Robby Fabbri in between their top producers.
Early projections look a bit different on the blue line from the above. Reports suggest Petteri Lindhohm could start the year on that second pairing with Shattenkirk, leaving Joel Edmundson to play with Colton Parayko. Edmundson will continue to prove his worth in 2016-17 and could establish himself as a top-four defender.
Once the Blues find a trade partner for Kevin Shattenkirk, it should allow for both Edmundson and Parayko to slide up the depth chart. At that point, expect to see a call-up for Jordan Schmaltz. He’s the third best RH shot on the blue line and should see plenty of NHL action once a little room is made on the back end.
*Update: St. Louis has acquired Nail Yakupov from Edmonton. These are early projections, but it seems the Russian winger could force Ty Rattie to the press box (or possibly the AHL) to start the new season.
Nashville Predators
Filip Forsberg – Ryan Johansen – James Neal
Colin Wilson – Mike Fisher – Craig Smith
Kevin Fiala – Mike Ribeiro – Calle Jarnkrok
Viktor Arvidsson – Colton Sissons – Miikka Salomaki
xs: Vladislav Kamenev, Cody Bass
Roman Josi – P.K. Subban
Mattias Ekholm – Ryan Ellis
Anthony Bitetto – Yannick Weber
xs: Matt Carle
All NHL
There aren’t many other rosters that are so well balanced with talent and having players in their proper positions/roles. This usually bodes well for a solid season. Now, some might be tempted to spread out the scoring by flipping James Neal and Craig Smith, but why bother?
Craig Smith and Colin Wilson are essentially fighting for the last protection spot in expansion. Let them play together with Mike Fisher (a trio of true second line talent) and see who emerges. Why allow one of them to look like a stud because they were playing with a potent goal scorer? That just creates a distorted view.
It will be interesting to see where Kevin Fiala fits on the depth chart. Traditionally, you like to give these prospects with top-six potential a spot on the top two lines to get sufficient ice time. But with Mike Ribeiro and Calle Jarnkrok, it’s a supremely talented third line that Fiala flourish on with a little less pressure to perform.
On a side note, Nashville also needs to find room for Vladislav Kamenev. We have him listed as an extra skater right now, but we don’t expect him to spend much time (if any) in the press box. It’s a matter of figuring out where he slots in. He’s listed as a left winger, but is capable of playing center – and some fans have proclaimed him the next top six center to replace Fisher and Ribeiro.
Dallas Stars
Jamie Benn – Tyler Seguin – Patrick Sharp
Jiri Hudler – Jason Spezza – Ales Hemsky
Antoine Roussel – Radek Faksa – Brett Ritchie
Curtis McKenzie – Devin Shore – Patrick Eaves
xs: Adam Cracknell, Justin Fontaine
Dan Hamhuis – John Klingberg
Johnny Oduya – Stephen Johns
Jordie Benn – Patrik Nameth
xs: Jamie Oleksiak
*Mattias Janmark out long-term, Cody Eakin out roughly 5-6 weeks
If there’s any team equipped to handle a rash of injuries, it’s the potent Dallas Stars squad. There may be a silver lining here, though. With Janmark and Eakin out, it opens up a couple of spots for players who would otherwise start the year in Texas. Instead of starting the year in the AHL, now guys like Brett Ritchie and Devin Shore have an opportunity to secure a roster spot earlier than expected. On a side note, don’t be surprised if Ritchie makes his way to the top line with Jamie Benn and Tyler Seguin at some point.
The Stars blue line seems to take unfair criticism. Truth be told, most fans and experts only know about the players at the NHL level. They’ve got a pair of talented prospects in Esa Lindell and Julius Honka marinating down in Texas. Let’s not forget about Stephen Johns. He stepped up big late in 2015-16 and should be ready to assume a much larger role this season.
Dallas essentially replaced Goligoski with Johns and Demers with Hamhuis. It might not look overly pretty on paper, but the Stars got a lot better defensively by sacrificing some a little bit of offense on the blue line.
Chicago Blackhawks
Artemi Panarin – Artem Anisimov – Patrick Kane
Alexandre Fortin – Jonathan Toews – Marian Hossa
Richard Panik – Marcus Kruger – Nick Schmaltz
Brandon Mashinter – Dennis Rasmussen – Ryan Hartman
xs: Andrew Desjardins, Jordin Tootoo
Duncan Keith – Brent Seabrook
Brian Campbell – Niklas Hjalmarsson
Gustav Forsling – Trevor van Riemsdyk
xs: Michal Kempny
Corey Crawford – Scott Darling
*Disregarding Niklas Hjalmarsson‘s two-game suspension
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Of all 30 teams, this projection was by far the toughest. We had to go out on a limb to assume that several players begin the year in Chicago based on impressive training camps. The shocker of the preseason so far is Alexandre Fortin. The undrafted free agent has played so well that he could be the lucky player to replace Andrew Ladd alongside Toews and Hossa.
The other surprise up front would be Nick Schmaltz. An argument could be made that Tyler Motte also deserves to stay. Whether it’s Schmaltz or Motte that gets demoted, either one would be the first call-up should Alexandre Fortin fail to impress early in the new season.
Looking to the blue line. We’ve opted to keep Gustav Forsling and Michal Kempny. After hearing coach Joel Quenneville say that Michal Rozsival was overused/overworked at just 51 games played in 2015-16, it might be time to move on from the veteran defender.
If Forsling cracks the squad, there’s no way he will serve as the number seven unless his play trails off. We’re slotting Kempny in at no.7. His training camp was somewhat disappointing, but he played well enough at the World Cup of Hockey that he deserves a spot on the 23-man roster.
Minnesota Wild
Zach Parise – Eric Staal – Charlie Coyle
Mikael Granlund – Mikko Koivu – Nino Niederreiter
Jason Zucker – Erik Haula – Jason Pominville
Ryan Carter – Christoph Bertschy – Chris Stewart
xs: Zac Dalpe
Ryan Suter – Jared Spurgeon
Marco Scandella – Matt Dumba
Jonas Brodin – Nate Prosser
xs: Christian Folin, Mike Rielly
*Victor Bartley out indefinitely
If it were strictly based on preseason performances, prospects such as Joel Eriksson Ek and Christoph Bertschy would be top-six candidates. Unfortunately, there’s no room for both at this time. Truth be told, there’s barely room for one.
We don’t actually expect that Bertschy would assume fourth line minutes. The big question is, who sits in the press box or plays on the 4th line instead? Options are Jason Zucker, Erik Haula, or Jason Pominville.
Next: Projecting Lines/Defensive Pairings (Metropolitan Division)
Minnesota‘s blue line is where things get interesting. Most have LH Jonas Brodin playing the right side with Scandella on the second pairing. It’s been a cute top four that has played well together for a while, but perhaps it’s time for a change.
Matt Dumba took more strides in his development in 2015-16, and the right-handed shooting defender deserves an opportunity to serve permanently on that second pairing. Now, forcing Brodin to play limited minutes on a bottom pairing is less than ideal; so what does this mean? That inevitable trade we’ve been speculating over for nearly a year now should eventually come to fruition. Mike Rielly and Christian Folin are ready to step up and play a bigger role.