NHL Predictions: Atlantic Division 5 Bold Projections

NHL Predictions: Eastern Conference’s Atlantic Division Stands to Be Much Stronger and Could Provide Upwards of 4-5 Playoff Participants. Almost Every Team Has Their Eyes Set on a Postseason Berth, Aside From Toronto – Although EA Sports Season Simulation Would Tell You the Maple Leafs Will Squeeze out a Wild-Card Finish.

Following a Puck Prose tradition, it’s about time for five bold NHL predictions. We typically release these in anticipation of important dates such as the trade deadline, All-Star break, start of playoffs, free agency, etc. Now, with a new season set to begin on Wednesday, it’s time to settle in for another long, exciting nine months or so of hockey.

At the beginning of 2015-16, we released a league-wide edition for our five bold NHL predictions. It’s tricky to make accurate projections this early in the year, but we managed to hit on the Dallas Stars being a powerhouse team in the West emerging as a Stanley Cup contender. We also got lucky with our prediction that Connor McDavid would match/or exceed a point-per-game pace in his rookie season – luckily we made sure to protect ourselves to an injury opposed to making an actual point estimate.

We’re shifting gears a bit for 2016-17. Instead of five league-wide predictions, we’ve decided to split it up into a divisional series. To begin, we turn to the Eastern Conference starting with the Atlantic Division.

Florida won the division in 2015-16, while Tampa Bay and Detroit also managed to secure playoff spots. Boston and Ottawa seemingly fell apart down the final stretch, while Montreal experienced an epic collapse that began much earlier after losing starter Carey Price. Buffalo showed a ton of improvement and should be ready to challenge for a playoff spot, while the Maple Leafs bottomed out and were rewarded with the 1st overall pick in the 2016 Draft.

Tampa Bay Lightning Win Division… and Presidents’ Trophy

We’re predicting big things from the Tampa Bay Lightning in 2016-17. They had a disappointing regular season, but at least managed to claim a playoff spot and make a deep run to the Conference Finals. Distractions were a big problem last season, largely surrounding Steven Stamkos. He has a new lengthy deal and the only other matters to sort out remain between the pipes and with RFA Nikita Kucherov.

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Look for the Tampa Bay Lightning to re-establish themselves a goal-scoring juggernaut. They should be able to challenge the Dallas Stars for most goals for as players such as Ondrej Palat and Tyler Johnson look to rebound off miserable seasons.

With the late emergence of Jonathan Drouin, the Lightning should have a ton of stability up front (especially in their top six). It wouldn’t be surprising to see Drouin settle in next to Stammer, while the Triplets line once again finds electric chemistry. Both Johnson and Palat are walking into crucial contract years, and we know exactly what happens when a player sees dollar signs on the horizon.

The only thing that can stop the Lightning from dominating the Atlantic Division is a mediocre blue line; that it at least the perception to many in the hockey world.

Victor Hedman and Anton Stralman clearly lead the charge as the top two defenders. Braydon Coburn and Jason Garrison serve as decent secondary options. It’s beyond that top-four where things begin to get interesting. Largely underrated, guys like Nikita Nesterov, Andrej Sustr, and Slater Koekkoek are just in their infant stages of reaching their potential. Nesterov and Sustr are admittedly much closer to that ceiling, but the point is, the talent down in Tampa Bay can help GM Steve Yzerman sleep more comfortably at night. Watch for this defensive group to take that next step in helping the Lightning get over that elusive hump and possibly even reach a Stanley Cup Final.

Ottawa Senators Narrowly Miss Out on Wild-Card Spot

When owner Eugene Melnyk proclaimed no one job safe in the organization with roughly 10 games remaining in the 2015-16 regular season, we expected to see a lot more offseason change. Longtime GM Bryan Murray was replaced from within the organization by Pierre Dorion. Coach Dave Cameron was also relieved of his duties, with the Sens eventually hiring ex-Lightning bench boss Guy Boucher.

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It was a fairly quiet summer for the Senators until they made a surprise move trading Swedish center Mika Zibanejad to the New York Rangers in exchange for Derick Brassard. Ottawa gave up a decent draft pick in the deal as well, banking on the notion that Brassard will be more productive. This one could easily backfire immediately. It’s not to say that Derick won’t have a solid 50-60 point season, we just wouldn’t be surprised if Zibanejad continues to blossom even further in his new setting.

Truth be told, this team did very little to improve this summer. It’s already going to be difficult enough for last year’s lottery teams to challenge for a playoff spot, let alone a team that is seemingly moving in a sideways directions.

The blue line should be a little better with a full year of Cody Ceci and Dion Phaneuf playing alongside one another. Erik Karlsson should have no problem racking up tons of points as usual, but you’ve gotta wonder how long before the Sens finally look for an upgrade on Marc Methot. Don’t get me wrong, he compliments Karlsson beautifully to make up for the defensive deficiencies. At some point though, you need a second body that creates a ton of offense and can produce a fair amount of points. Stay-at-home defenders that struggle to surpass 20 points in a season don’t belong on the top pairing logging valuable minutes.

If the Ottawa Senators do in fact miss the playoffs, it would mark the first time that has happened two years in a row dating back to 1995-96. Starting from their inaugural season in 1992-93, the Sens missed the postseason in four consecutive years. They finally made their first playoff appearance in 1996-97 and kept the streak alive for 11 seasons up until 2007-08.

Ben Bishop is Traded Before 2017 Calander Rolls Around

Why haven’t Ben Bishop or Marc-Andre Fleury been traded? Believe it or not, it has very little to do with how much trust the Pens or Lightning have for Matt Murray or Andrei Vasilevskiy; and has everything to do with fair market value.

At this point, Steve Yzerman and Jim Rutherford are seemingly in Peter Chiarelli’s shoes prior to the Taylor Hall trade. In Peter’s case, teams knew he was desperate and had to make a trade to acquire a right-handed shot – this put other GMs in the driver seat to get the upper hand in a deal. In the case of Pittsburgh/Tampa Bay, teams know these teams need to trade their veteran netminders at some point to prepare for the expansion draft. If either team dealt a goalie right now, the return package would be minimal and overall a disappointment.

Fast forward two-to-three months, perhaps a starter goes down with an injury or a goaltending situation that was expected to be stable, falls apart. It’s basically a waiting game at this point for Yzerman and Rutherford and they wait for the goaltender market to heat up.

3 Hypothetical Deals for Ben Bishop

Tampa Bay Trades G Ben Bishop to Arizona Coyotes in exchange for G Louis Domingue, F Martin Hanzal (2017 UFA – rental), and D Connor Murphy

Tampa Bay Trades G Ben Bishop to Dallas Stars in exchange for G Antti Niemi, D Julius Honka, 2017 1st Round Pick, and 2017 2nd Round Pick

Tampa Bay Trades G Ben Bishop and to Florida Panthers in exchange for G James Reimer, D Alex Petrovic, F Connor Brickley, and 2017 1st Round Pick

Auston Matthews Wins Calder Trophy

Just because we’re proclaiming Auston Matthews the early favorite to win the Calder Trophy doesn’t necessarily mean he wins the rookie scoring race. He certainly has the talent and potential to do so, but it’ll be his maturity, poise, and excellent two-way play that earns him Rookie of the Year honors.

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Leading up to the draft, ex-NHL coach Marc Crawford spoke very highly of the American teenager. He wound up being a dominant player in one of Europe’s top leagues over in Switzerland – the NLA. Auston racked up 46 points in 36 games with the ZSC Lions.

Matthews was also a standout on the international stage at both the World Juniors and World Hockey Championships. He had 11 points in seven games for the U20 squad, adding nine points in 10 games against NHL competition this past spring.

To close it out, fans in Toronto got a close look at their first overall pick at the World Cup of Hockey. Auston played extremely well throughout the pre-tournament leading into official group play. He wound up tallying three points in three games as Team North America just narrowly missed out on the semifinals.

There are still some question marks regarding as to where Matthews fits on the Maple Leafs depth chart. Rumors suggest he could start the year on the third line. However it shakes up, we expect the American to gradually earn his keep with coach Mike Babcock. What does that mean? Well, by the time April rolls around, it’s conceivable that Auston Matthews occupies the top line. It won’t take him too long to gain the trust of the Leafs bench boss, and we expect big things in year one.

Next: Atlantic Division Line Projections for 2016-17

Include names such as William Nylander, Mitch Marner, Connor Brown, Zach Hyman, Nikita Soshnikov, and many others we expect to see either at the start or at some point this upcoming season – it’s an exciting time to be a Leafs fan. Of course, there are bound to be bumps along the way, but those boring games of 2015-16 (before the AHL call-ups) with zero creativity look to be in the rear-view mirror.