Toronto Maple Leafs: Could William Nylander hold out?

The Toronto Maple Leafs and restricted free agent forward William Nylander have yet to work something out. Could a holdout be in the future?

With every passing day, restricted free agent forward William Nylander gains momentum in his contract negotiations with Toronto Maple Leafs management. The 22-year-old is due for a pay raise.

Although new general manager Kyle Dubas remains determined to sign him, Nylander appears to be in no particular hurry to sign off on a deal. Though both parties have been civil throughout negotiations, the process is dragging on longer than anticipated.

Many recall the infamous quote Dubas provided while on 31 Thoughts, pertaining to how he plans to lock up the three young stars long term. “We can, and we will”.

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With that being said, the Maple Leafs’ newly anointed general manager needs to be wary just how much money his prized winger will earn. They have plenty of contractual decisions to be made in the coming months, not limited to the monstrous deals both Auston Matthews and Mitch Marner will command by season’s end.

Jake Gardiner, above all, will also require a new contract and there is a safe bet he’s already too expensive for Toronto as it is. Although Ron Hainsey‘s $3 million cap hit, among others, will also be off the books, it will likely be reserved for further help on the back-end.

Nylander’s deal will have many implications moving forward, just as John Tavares‘ deal will do the same. The only difference being, Tavares could have earned upwards of $13 million on the open market and is considered a bargain at $11 million despite his contract length.

Comparably Speaking

On Thursday, Nylander spoke at the NHL European Player Media Tour and provided some insight to the situation as per Mike Zeisberger of NHL.com. Dylan Larkin‘s recent contract renewal was brought up in comparison and gauged a relaxed reaction from the Swede. Nylander reportedly feels no pressure to sign a new deal amidst other RFA signings.

"“There is no extra pressure or urgency to get something done just because guys like [Larkin] sign.”"

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Larkin, who is also 22, took slightly less term at five years but could command much more money by the end of his contract. The Leafs would be smart to lock up a key cog in their four-headed monster for the maximum eight years, even if it means slightly overpaying in the first year or two, seeing as LTIR remains a viable option this upcoming season.

Ultimately, this is a gambling investment and it comes down to how much trust Leafs’ management truly has in their young asset.

"“Right now, once something like that happens, you’re more updated on what’s going on around the League, more educated.”"

Numbers-wise, Larkin’s 140 points in 242 games (0.57) and Nylander’s 135 points in 185 games (0.72) are similar points-per-game rates. However, the latter projects to have a higher ceiling.

Another comparable, such as David Pastrnak, who signed before his stock skyrocketed and now has one of the best value-contracts in the NHL. Before posting 70 points in 75 games in a contract year (2016-17), Pastrnak had only managed to produce 53 points in 97 games over his first two NHL seasons prior. Fast forward to 2017-18 and his 80 points ranked 21st in the entire league.

Projections

Contracts are typically based on salary cap percentages, in terms of how much of it a single player can take up. Pastrnak’s deal, which took effect in 2017-18, was worth approximately 8.88% ($6.66M) of Boston’s $75 million salary cap ceiling that year.

Considering the salary cap has been increased to $79.5 million for 2018-19, David Pastrnak‘s previous number would look closer to $7.06 million per year (8.88% of the cap) if it were signed today and still based on his previous stats. At the very least, this can be a starting point for Nylander’s camp.

However, Larkin posted 63 points in 82 games in 2017-18 to earn his new deal. By comparison, Nylander had 61 in 82 games. Through the same method, Larkin’s $6.1M AAV is approximately 7.67% of Detroit’s $79.5 million salary cap ceiling.

It could also make sense to split these two percentages down the middle at 8.27% ($6.57M AAV) and say that will be William Nylander’s number. Easier said than done, it isn’t so simple if either Nylander or management wants the maximum 8-year term. The dollar amount would likely have to be higher to squeeze in the extra two years.

Either that or Nylander decides to hold out until after the season begins, resulting in a likely-but-deadly bridge deal.