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Toronto Maple Leafs: Jake Gardiner’s future up in the air

By Carson Trask

Photograph by Julian Avram/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images
Photograph by Julian Avram/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images /
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What does the future hold for Toronto Maple Leafs defenseman Jake Gardiner?

With training camp for the Toronto Maple Leafs now underway, the media has had a chance to ask both head coach Mike Babcock and general manager Kyle Dubas questions about the team’s present and future.

While a lot of questions are centered around William Nylander not in attendance, the common ask is about the future of defenceman Jake Gardiner. The 28-year-old defenseman is entering the final year of his contract. Gardiner is expected to get a major raise on his current $4.05 million cap hit. With massive contracts coming to, Nylander, Marner and Matthews can the Maple Leafs even afford him?

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Dubas and Babcock have been bullish on their praise of the defenseman whenever they get the chance to talk about him. The start of camp was no different.

"“We look forward to getting Jake signed and him being a Leaf for a long time.” – Babcock"

Whether you are a fan of Gardiner or not, there is no denying his importance to this Leafs team. 50 point defensemen don’t grow on trees. Gardiner is an elite puck-moving defenseman but his flaws can be glaring.

The question Leafs management has to ask themselves is does the reward outweigh the risk. Each game Gardiner will make plays that directly result in the Leafs getting high-quality scoring chances. His stretch passes are a thing of beauty, leading to breakaways for the Leafs skilled forwards, and that’s where Gardiner’s value comes in. With the skill the Leafs have up front, they need guys on the back end that can get them the puck.

It’s the mental lapses in Gardiner’s game that leaves fans pulling their hair out. Sloppy and careless play is unacceptable at this point in his career. Gardiner has been in the league long enough where fans know what he is. It’s not going to change. He is an exceptional puck mover, who can look lost in his own end.

So what is a fair contract?

Negotiations

Gardiner will be 29 when his next contract kicks in, making this a very interesting negotiation. The Leafs can offer him the max eight-year deal. Surely that’s what Gardiner’s camp will be seeking, but it doesn’t make sense for the team. Paying defensemen a high salary through their mid-30s isn’t smart business, especially with the cap crunch coming for the Leafs.

If Gardiner and his camp stay firm on a long-term deal, the Leafs need to walk away. While many have discussed whether the Leafs should look to trade him, it’s just not that simple.

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The Leafs are Stanley Cup contenders and the return for Gardiner would likely be futures, so it would weaken the Leafs. Much like last season, where the Leafs essential had their own rental players, in Bozak, JVR, and Komarov, the Leafs may need to just let Gardiner walk for nothing at the end of the season.

Losing a good asset for nothing doesn’t make anyone feel overly good, but the Leafs are in a position where they won’t be crippled by doing so. The Leafs have a lot of depth on the left side of their blueline where they can make it work. Borgman, Rosen can step into the lineup now. Rasmus Sandin and Timothy Liljegren look to be nice pieces in the near future as puck-moving defensemen. Unless Gardiner takes a major hometown discount, this will be his last season in the blue and white.

Fair Deal

So what should the Leafs offer? The max length of term should be 5 years, and in saying that, the Leafs should offer a four-year term worth an AAV of $6.5-$7 million. That’s a fairly substantial raise for Gardiner, and would ensure the Leafs wouldn’t be stuck with an aging defenceman on a long deal.

Dubas and Babcock would have to bring their recruiting A game they used on Tavares, do get Gardiner to agree to a shorter term deal. This is likely his last chance to really cash in, so it will be a difficult sell. The John Carlson contract in Washington is the comparable that will be used throughout this process. An $8 million AAV is something Gardiner could likely get on the open market, but it won’t be from the Leafs. It’s just not possible.

Gardiner has made it clear that he loves Toronto, and the Leafs love him, but is that enough to continue this marriage. I don’t think so.

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Conclusion 

Jake Gardiner has been a treat to watch in his time with the Leafs. His puck moving ability is special, and while 50 point defenceman are not easy to come by, the Leafs have a difficult decision to make. The team is already in a contract stale mate with Nylander, and Marner and Matthews are coming up. Dubas has to be smart with what he does with the teams cap structure.

Dubas and Babcock absolutely love what Gardiner brings to the team, but it wasn’t a coincidence the team has drafted a puck moving d man in the first round the past two seasons. If the deal isn’t right, the Leafs needed to ensure that had potential replacements waiting in the wings. They are big shoes to fill, but the Leafs have been proactive in that respect.

The writing appears to be on the wall that this is Gardiner’s last year in Toronto. It’s just not plausible for the team to give him the contract he will be looking for. It’s easy for people on the outside to say a player should take a discount if he loves it so much, but the window for players to make their money isn’t big and Gardiner has every right to maximize his value on the open market.

Gardiner has been the whipping boy for the Leafs through most of his tenure, but he has been a really good player. Let’s not forget that.

Contract details courtesy of CapFriendly

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