Toronto Maple Leafs preview: John Tavares has Leafs on the edge of glory

After signing John Tavares during the summer, the Toronto Maple Leafs are ready to ice their best roster in years. Will it be enough to win a Stanley Cup?

The Toronto Maple Leafs have won 13 Stanley Cups, the second most of any NHL franchise. As an Original Six team, they have a ton of history and their jersey is arguably the most recognizable in hockey. However, the Leafs haven’t won a Stanley Cup since 1967 and very little has gone their way in those 41 Stanley Cup-less years.  All of that changed on July 1. In the NHL, stars rarely leave their team via free agency. Against all odds, the Maple Leafs surprised everyone by signing John Tavares.

The signing of the former New York Islanders center confirms what everyone already knew – the rebuild is over. So are the days of moral victories. As are the days of the Leafs attracting more attention than they deserve. Now they are every bit deserving of being the NHL’s Mecca.

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However, this new era also has a lot more pressure. The pressure to win in Toronto has never been higher. For years, the Leafs had tiny expectations. Those expectations have grown exponentially. No longer is simply making the Stanley Cup Playoffs enough for the Maple Leafs. They are expected to contend for their first title since 1967.

Though the Leafs should be Stanley Cup contenders for the foreseeable future, right now is the best time for the Maple Leafs to win. Two of their best players are still on their entry level contracts, but will be getting significant pay raises after the 2018-19 season. It won’t be impossible for the Leafs to win after this season, but it will be far more difficult for them to do so.

The Maple Leafs have the weight of an entire city on their shoulders. Toronto has not had a champion in the four major sports leagues since the unforgettable 1993 Toronto Blue Jays. That team set a high standard for all Toronto’s teams. The Leafs hope to clear it by bringing the Stanley Cup back to Canada for the first time since, you guessed it, 1993.

Strengths

Center Depth

Stanley Cups are won down the middle. And the Toronto Maple Leafs have three excellent centers. Despite missing 20 games last season, no one has scored more five-on-five goals over the past two seasons than Matthews. With appropriate power play time, he could be a serious threat to Alex Ovechkin‘s goal-scoring throne.

Meanwhile, Tavares has 65 goals over the past two seasons during all situations, which ranks 16th among forwards. Playing with Marner makes him a threat to score at least 40 goals. It also makes him a darkhorse threat to lead the league in goals.

Only 12 players have scored at least 30 goals in each of the past two seasons. Tavares and Matthews are two of them. Kadri is the other, which gives the Leafs three players who could score 30 goals. I think he sees his production drop a bit because of a slight decrease in playing time, but he’s still one of the most effective two-way players in the NHL.

Now, I’m not sold on the Leafs’ fourth line yet. But frankly, Toronto has three top line caliber centers. They can easily cover for that fourth line weakness.

Power Play

The Toronto Maple Leafs could have a historically great power play. Their top unit will likely feature Matthews, Nylander, Marner, Rielly, and Tavares. Good luck stopping that five man unit. Their second unit will still be pretty darn good, as it will feature Kadri, Marleau, and Gardiner. Johnsson seems like a good fit for a role around the crease and Kapanen definitely has the skill to play on the power play.

Weaknesses

The Toronto Maple Leafs have a lot of strengths. I just decided to cover their two greatest strengths. However, the Leafs are not without their flaws. In fact, their primary flaw is a pretty darn big one. And it might well cost them a Stanley Cup.

Not Right

A huge reason why the Leafs lost to the Boston Bruins in the first round of the Stanley Cup Playoffs in 2017-18 was because of their lack of defense on the right side. They were able to hone in on stopping their left side because guys like Hainsey, Zaitsev, and the incumbent Roman Polak couldn’t do anything with the puck.

Their left side is actually pretty darn good with Rielly, Gardiner, and Dermott. However, they’re going to be the focal point of other teams’ forechecks. It’s up to the Leafs right-handed defensemen to carry their weight. Carrick can move the puck decently, but that’s an issue with Hainsey and Zaitsev.

Fourth Line

Everyone knows the Toronto Maple Leafs will have three lines of death. Their fourth line, though, won’t be too strong. And it might be slightly meaningful. Especially right after power plays. Keep in mind their top three centers (Matthews, Tavares, and Kadri) are on the power play. If the Leafs don’t score, that’ll leave each member of the trio gassed.

That would leave their fourth line to take the faceoff right after it ends. It’s what Babcock has traditionally done and he’s as stubborn as mule, so it’s not changing. That might be the most important role the fourth line plays. But it’s an important one regardless.

Season Prediction

The Toronto Maple Leafs have incredible expectations entering this season. I think they have what it takes to live up to them. The Leafs have the offense necessary to make up for the defensive issues. And frankly, people are probably overrating their defensive issues a bit.

It takes a heck of a lot more than skill to win a Stanley Cup. Just ask the Washington Capitals. It takes a mighty amount of luck. Things have to bounce your way. You have to score weird goals. You need supernatural performances. And it sure helps to have some solid goaltending.

Now, the Leafs have Andersen, so they have that last part down. Whether or not he’s great is up for debate. But I think the Leafs can definitely win a Stanley Cup with Andersen in goal. He’s good enough.

Unfortunately, the rest of that stuff is hard to predict. That’s why hockey is so cruel and heartless. However, the Leafs have the toughest part down. They’re great enough that they’ll be in a position for those bounces to go their way. And the Leafs probably have the talent to overcome a bit of that bad luck.

If Toronto can fix their defensive issues, and I think the pieces are there for them to do so, they could bring the Stanley Cup back to Canada.