Dispelling 3 myths about the 2018-19 Washington Capitals

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Some of the narratives surrounding the Washington Capitals this season are not exactly accurate. Here is an analytical explanation.

The Washington Capitals are in the midst of an up-and-down season. After playing mostly average hockey for much of the first month, they proceeded on a stretch where they mostly dominated their opposition.

As the calendar turned to 2019, however, the team began to struggle, including a 7-game losing streak entering the All-Star Game. They seem to have turned things around a bit since the start of February and are still within striking distance of the top spot in the Metropolitan Division.

However, since they are the defending Stanley Cup champions, it is difficult to let go of the idea that the season has been a disappointment so far. Although they are statistically no worse this year than they were at this point last season, expectations have increased for the team.

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As a result, certain narratives seem to have grown popular amongst the fanbase and analysts. One of these has been the notion that Washington’s penalty kill has regressed significantly, which is not true. Instead, the key issue has been the number of penalties taken, as I discussed recently.

That penalty example is just one of many myths surrounding the Washington Capitals and their level of play this season. In this article, I will examine three more popular theories and analyze why, statistically, they are inaccurate. Let’s get going!

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Myth: The Washington Capitals do not win enough face-offs to be successful going forward.

The most recent hockey video game I own is NHL 2K10. When I would win a game and the pre-programmed broadcasters would offer their “analysis,” the most common line I remember is that I won because I “dominated in the face-off dot. When you win faceoffs, you control possession.”

That anecdote is to say that one of the most basic ways hockey fans analyze a team or player is by looking at face-off numbers. On the surface that seems obvious; as Drew Remenda said in NHL 2K10, the team that wins the most face-offs will logically have an immediate advantage.

For many years, Jay Beagle was the best face-off taker on the Washington Capitals, one of the many qualities that made him such a fan-favorite. This offseason he signed a $3 million per year contract with the Vancouver Canucks, making him too rich for the cap-strapped Caps.

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Unsurprisingly, the Capitals have struggled horribly in the dots this season: per NHL.com, as of 55 games into the season, they are last in the league at 46.2%. Only Lars Eller (50.7%) and Nic Dowd (50.2%) are better than average in the circles, while Evgeny Kuznetsov is posting an awful 38.8%.

As the trade deadline nears, there have been calls by some in the Washington fanbase to bring Beagle back, perhaps by trading away Andre Burakovsky who carries the same cap hit. Beagle currently has a 53.2% face-off percentage.

While bringing in somebody like Beagle would undoubtedly win the team more face-offs, a closer look at the statistics show that winning more draws will not necessarily lead to more wins. The Hockey News‘s Dom Luszczyszyn had this to say in 2015:

Stats guys talk about shot rates because it does a fair job at predicting future goals – better than anything else that’s currently available. Faceoffs don’t. All they tell you is who won the faceoff. They have their place, but they’re just not as important as they’re made out to be.

To put this theory to the test, I took a look at Washington’s face-off performance last season. Through 55 games, they were winning draws at a 50.4% clip: better, but still middle-of-the-pack. That extra 4% had resulted in a total of three more points.

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With those three points, the Capitals would still be second in the Metropolitan Division right now, and only marginally higher than their current overall position. Still, one could argue that even that difference could become significant by the end of the season.

In the playoffs, the Caps elevated their game in pretty much every statistic, except for one: face-offs. Their win percentage actually went down in the postseason, falling to 49.1%. Their opponent in the finals, the Vegas Golden Knights, were even worse, at 48.4%.

If that does not convince you that face-offs do not determine playoff success, then consider this: in the Finals, the team that lost the face-off battle won three of the five games. When the Caps eliminated the Pittsburgh Penguins in Round 2 Game 6, they won 38.1% of the draws.

In neither a long-term nor game-by-game context do face-offs correlate strongly with postseason success. Could winning more face-offs help the Washington Capitals win more games? Perhaps, as it is always preferable to win a face-off than it is to lose one.

But the fact of the matter is that if the team is focusing on improving their face-off totals, they are focusing on the wrong aspect of their game. There are more important areas that need immediate attention, and bringing in somebody like Beagle would not cure those.

Truth: Winning more face-offs is unlikely to help the Washington Capitals significantly in the playoffs.

Myth: Brooks Orpik is too slow for today’s game, and is the reason the Washington Capitals are struggling.

On New Year’s Eve 2018, as the Washington Capitals were in the midst of their best stretch of the season, Brooks Orpik made his return to the lineup after missing 27 games with an injury. Since then, the Caps have gone 6-8-4, with Orpik playing in all but one of those games.

Naturally, as an older, stay-at-home defenseman in a young man’s league, Orpik seems to have been pegged with some of the responsibility for this slump. Undeniably, there have been instances where the eye-test seem to confirm that he is a liability to the Capitals at this stage of his career.

It may come as a shock, then, to hear that he has actually been one of Washington’s most effective players so far this season. Per Natural Stat Trick, Orpik is second only to Jonas Siegenthaler among Caps defensemen in High Danger Shot Attempts Percentage (HDCF%).

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Relative to the rest of the team, Orpik’s HDCF% is +11.28. Only Siegenthaler and Dmitrij Jaskin have a better Relative HDCF% while playing at least 25 games. Despite being vilified for his lack of offensive ability, Orpik has been among the most effective Capitals at driving offense.

To be fair to his critics, this level of proficiency was completely unexpected of Orpik, who was traded to the Colorado Avalanche, bought out and signed by Washington in the offseason. Last year, his Relative HDCF% was -8.58, worse than only Madison Bowey among Caps defensemen.

When the Capitals re-signed Orpik in the offseason, there were questions due to his current status as being “old and bad,” as Jeb Biggart of MSN.com put it:

The 37-year-old defenseman has scored just five goals since 2012, and his defensive play has been dreadful as of late… His numbers look much worse with his past AAV of $5.5 million, but his new contract is far more fitting considering his lackluster defensive play.

Given the similar preconceptions many fans had about Orpik coming into the season, as well as the fact that Washington’s downturn came after his return, it is not surprising that he has borne some of the blame for their play of late.

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If Orpik is not the reason for the slump, though, who (or what) is? I would argue that the team’s downturn is more due to the loss of Christian Djoos to compartment syndrome, who just played his first game back since December 11th against the Arizona Coyotes.

Djoos was Washington’s best defenseman last season, posting a Relative HDCF% of +8.20, and before his injury this year he had maintained his positive play. It is not surprising that the bulk of the Capitals’ struggles occurred while one of their best defensemen was out.

Now that Djoos is back, I would expect the Washington Capitals to show marked improvement going forward. Considering how effective he was last year while playing with a struggling Brooks Orpik, just imagine how good that pair will be now that they are both healthy and playing well.

Truth: Brooks Orpik has actually been one of the best defensemen this season for the Washington Capitals.

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Myth #3: The Washington Capitals made a grave mistake in replacing Barry Trotz with Todd Reirden.

It was the most controversial decision of the offseason: in the afterglow of the Washington Capitals winning the Stanley Cup, they allowed the greatest coach in franchise history to terminate his contract and walk to a division rival.

Rumors of Trotz leaving had been swirling around all season, especially when Todd Reirden had his contract extended and was promoted to associate coach. After the Caps eliminated the Columbus Blue Jackets, it was rumored that he told John Tortorella he was leaving after the season.

It was pretty much a foregone conclusion, then, that Reirden would be taking over as head coach, and given Washington’s playoff struggles under Trotz, the fans were not exactly rabid in disapproval. Then, the Caps won the Stanley Cup, and suddenly those same fans wanted him back.

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When the Capitals decided to put their eggs in Reirden’s basket and allowed Trotz to walk to their division rivals in the New York Islanders, it was obvious that there would be pressure on the rookie head coach. The fan’s expectations had only risen after the Cup win.

Now, with the Islanders above the Capitals in the standings, the scrutiny has increased exponentially. As Barry Svrluga of the Washington Post wrote recently:

The Capitals need to remember they didn’t become champions because they flipped a switch and decided to. They need to remember they worked and worked and worked until they got it right, and it clicked. Coach Reirden, you’ve got 30 games before the playoffs to get it right.

This narrative has become popular because it is such an easy and obvious one. But is it accurate? I would argue that the statistical analysis shows that it is unfair to pin Washington’s struggles on Reirden taking over for Trotz.

Let’s start with Trotz’s new team, the Islanders. Undoubtedly, they have been one of the most successful teams this season, and the numbers back them up: through 55 games, they have a team HDCF% of 53.23%, compared to Washington’s mark of 45.46%.

Obviously the process is very good in Brooklyn/Long Island, but are the results sustainable? One look at the goaltending statistics paints a potentially worrisome picture for Isles fans: their goaltenders are stopping 93.69% of shots at 5 on 5, including 85.71% of high-danger shots.

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Those are extremely high marks, ones that should not be sustainable. Isles fans would undoubtedly argue that the hiring of goaltending guru Mitch Korn in the offseason explains this turnaround.

Consider, then, that through 55 games last season, Korn’s Capitals posted marks of 92.65% and 82.69%, significantly lower than the Isles this year. And further consider that Korn’s goaltenders last year were Braden Holtby (a former Vezina Trophy winner) and Philipp Grubauer.

This year, Korn has been working his magic on Robin Lehner and Thomas Greiss, both of whom are posting overall save percentages some 10-15 points better than their career bests per Hockey Reference. No goaltending coach is good enough to sustain that level of play all season.

Holtby, meanwhile, is posting a save percentage 12 points below his career average. Was Korn the difference all along? Doubtful, but if so, that drop-off would fall squarely on new goaltending coach Scott Murray, not Reirden.

Beyond the goaltending, there are other factors that point to Reirden not being responsible for Washington’s struggles. As I have mentioned before, the Washington Capitals are actually playing better than they were at this point last season.

There is one particular duo that should bear more of the responsibility for Washington’s struggles: Dmitry Orlov and Matt Niskanen, who have both seen massive drop-offs in their Relative HDCF% this season per Natural Stat Trick (-12.77 and -6.48 through 55 games, respectively).

Is Reirden responsible for this in any way? Per Corsica, the usage for both players has been fairly constant: Niskanen is starting in the defensive zone approximately 3% more often this season, but Orlov’s Defensive Zone Start Percentage has actually decreased marginally.

I would argue, then, that Reirden’s usage cannot be blamed for the poor play of Orlov and Niskanen. I would further claim that this would hold for anybody else on the team who’s play has declined since last season. Check out Natural Stat Trick and Corsica to explore this further.

The bottom line is that there have been certain players who have not performed up to par this season, which is why the Washington Capitals are struggling. Despite these individual slumps, the team’s overall performance is better than it was at this point last season.

As such, it would be unfair to lay the blame on Todd Reirden, or even to claim that keeping Barry Trotz would have made a marked difference. I am confident that he will be able to right the ship before the playoffs.

Truth: Individual declines that cannot be attributed to Todd Reirden’s coaching are more responsible for the struggles of the Washington Capitals.

I opened this article by claiming that some of the narratives that are building around the Washington Capitals due to their recent slump are not quite accurate. Statistically, those myths just don’t hold, leading to the following conclusions:

Winning more face-offs is not going to be the difference between Washington winning a Stanley Cup.
Brooks Orpik has played very well this season, and Washington’s struggles are due more to the injury to Christian Djoos.
Todd Reirden should not be blamed for struggles that can be attributed to individual slumps, and keeping Barry Trotz is unlikely to have made any difference.

In making these arguments, however, I am not trying to claim that the Washington Capitals have no problems whatsoever. They are allowing too many high-danger chances, taking too many penalties, and their power play is atrocious.

The good news is that only one of those problems cannot be fixed easily. The penalty issue should take care of itself when the whistles are put away in the playoffs, and Washington’s power play has too much talent for its issues to continue forever.

The high-danger chances problem is more complicated, but is directly related to these aforementioned narratives and conclusions. One way to limit high-danger chances against is to get draws in the offensive zone, and the effect of face-off performance will decrease dramatically.

Additionally, if Orpik and Djoos continue to perform well, all that needs to happen is for Orlov and Niskanen to approach their level of performance from last season. They are the main culprits in allowing those high-danger opportunities, and improvement from them will be huge.

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Overall, fans of the Washington Capitals should remain optimistic going forward despite this rough stretch of late. It is important to keep things in perspective, and not attach to wrong and potentially harmful narratives about players and coaches.

That being said, there is room for improvement from this team and it must happen fast. What adjustments do the Caps need to make, and how should they make them? Join in the conversation in the comments section below!i

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