NCAA Hockey: Comprehensive Tournament Preview

The NCAA Hockey postseason is starting up! Learn more about the teams, players, and games to watch over the next few weeks.

The NHL regular season may still be winding down, but the NCAA Hockey regular season was wrapped up last weekend when conference tournaments across the country were decided. That means that all that is left in the college hockey season is the national tournament.

While college sports fans are undoubtedly more concerned right now with the spectacle of March Madness, to overlook the NCAA Hockey tournament would be a mistake. These young men play with as much passion as the professionals in the Stanley Cup playoffs.

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If this will be your first time following the tournament, here is a brief background. The tournament consists of 16 teams (much smaller than in basketball), including the winners of the six conferences and the other top ten teams in the country, who receive “at-large” bids.

The first two rounds of the tournament will take place this weekend, from Friday, March 29th to Sunday the 31st. Each of the four bracket “quadrants” have a unique schedule, but each quadrant will complete their three matches (two first-round and one second-round) on back-to-back days.

While this may seem odd considering that the Stanley Cup playoffs almost never has the same team playing on back-to-back days, it is important to note that most college hockey teams play on Fridays and Saturdays, meaning they are used to playing two, or sometimes three days in a row.

The winner of each quadrant qualifies for the Frozen Four, which will take place in Buffalo’s Keybank Arena. The semis will take place on Friday, April 11th, followed by the finals on Sunday, April 13th. Over all four rounds, every game will be broadcast on an ESPN channel.

With that background out of the way, let us now take a look at each quadrant and each team in closer detail. Be sure to chime in with your thoughts on the NCAA Hockey tournament. Let’s get to it!

Northeast Regionals

Location: Manchester, NH

Dates: March 29-30

(1) Massachusetts Minutemen

How they got here: At-Large Bid (Hockey East Semifinalists)

NCAA Ranking: #4

Player to watch: Cale Makar (So – D)

For the first time in a long time, the state of Massachusetts will not be represented in the tournament by Boston University or Boston College – instead, it will be the U Mass Minutemen, the regular season Hockey East champions, looking to win their first national title.

If this team seems to have come out of nowhere, it is because they basically have. This is only their second ever appearance in the NCAA Hockey tournament, and first since 2007.

This renaissance has been led by 2017 4th overall draft pick and Colorado Avalanche prospect Cale Makar, who has had an absolutely tremendous season. Thanks to him, the Minutemen are a top-10 team in the country in both goals for and goals against.

Possession-wise, Massachusetts are one of the best teams in the country, with a 57% shot attempts percentage. Their power play is clicking at almost 29%, while their penalty kill is also elite at over 87%.

Even their goaltending is a strength. Starter Matt Murray has posted a solid .912 save percentage, and backup Filip Lindberg is more than capable of stepping in when necessary.

The Minutemen may have just arrived to the big stage, but they are absolutely a force to be reckoned with. Do not take this team lightly.

(2) Clarkson Golden Knights

How they got here: ECAC Champions

NCAA Ranking: #7

Player to watch: Jake Kielly (Jr – G)

Speaking of teams searching for their first NCAA Hockey championship, three-time finalists Clarkson are back in the big dance and looking dangerous, after winning the ECAC title in overtime over Cornell.

The Golden Knights are an interesting team, in that they have a clear standout up front and in net. Nico Sturm has been a force offensively, but it is likely that their tournament hopes rest on the back of Jake Kielly, who has been one of the best keepers in the country over the last two years.

The play of the goaltender is made even more important given how poor Clarkson has been possession-wise all season. They are in the bottom half of the country in shot attempts percentage, meaning Kielly has to come up big for them.

Still, in a single-elimination tournament, a hot goaltender can make all the difference. That is what Clarkson will be relying on.

(3) Notre Dame Fighting Irish

How they got here: Big Ten Champions

NCAA Ranking: #12

Player to watch: Cale Morris (Jr – G)

One year after making a run to the NCAA Hockey finals on the back of their goaltender, Notre Dame will likely be looking for the same thing this year after sneaking into the tournament by winning the Big Ten.

Last year, the Fighting Irish were the second-overall seed, but their were issues. They seemed to be relying too much on their goaltending, that a poor performance could do them in. This year, they are in the same position, and would like to silence their doubters again.

Notre Dame are middle-of-the-pack offensively and defensively. They routinely get dominated in terms of possession. All of this was true last year, but it did not matter, because Cale Morris turned into a brick wall in net.

Morris may be even better this year, which bodes well for an offensively impotent Notre Dame squad. Their chances lie completely on him. At least they got a relatively easy first-round draw with Clarkson.

(4) Harvard Crimson

How they got here: At-Large Bid (ECAC Semifinalists)

NCAA Ranking: #13

Player to watch: Adam Fox (Jr – D)

After making the Frozen Four two season ago, Harvard missed the NCAA Hockey tournament last season. After an inconsistent year, the Crimson are back and looking to return to the semifinals.

Like a lot of ECAC teams, Harvard plays with a solid defensive structure, but are just average offensively. However, they are pretty good possession-wise, and are led by Adam Fox, the Carolina Hurricanes prospect who is one of the best offensive defensemen in the tournament.

Between this, and their solid goaltending, this is not a team that “wows” you. However, they play the right way, and with a decent draw could surprise people. Unfortunately, U Mass is not a decent draw, and beating them will be a tall task for Harvard.

East Regionals

Location: Providence, RI

Dates: March 30-31

(1) Minnesota St. Mavericks

How they got here: WCHA Champions

NCAA Ranking: #3

Player to watch: Dryden McKay (Fr – G)

Other teams may get more press, but few teams in the NCAA Hockey tournament are scarier than the Minnesota State University Mavericks. The WCHA regular season and tournament champions are absolutely deadly, and a legitimate threat for the national title.

Minnesota State has been one of the best teams in the country all season long, and for good reason. They are third in the nation in both goals for and goals against. They have a top-10 power play and penalty kill. Their goaltender, Dryden McKay, just posted a .933 season save percentage.

Possession-wise, the Mavericks are an elite team in terms of shot-attempts percentage. In most levels of hockey, dominating play and getting such a high level of goaltending almost always leads to postseason success.

The games still have to be played, but on paper, Minnesota State are just about as dominant of a team as they come. It is just a shame that they got such a difficult first-round matchup (more on that later).

(2) Northeastern Huskies

How they got here: Hockey East Champions

NCAA Ranking: #5

Player to watch: Cayden Primeau (So – G)

If I seem to be choosing a lot of goaltenders as the players to watch, it is only because I truly believe that for most teams, their chances of winning rely on the play of their goaltender. Northeastern is in that group, as the play of Cayden Primeau has carried them this far.

Primeau is one of the best goaltending prospects in the world, something he exhibited for Team USA in the World Juniors. He has been an absolute stud this year, posting a .936 save percentage while leading the Huskies to allowing among the fewest goals in the country.

Unfortunately, Northeastern is absolutely horrendous offensively. They control just 46.3% of shot attempts at even strength, and are carrying a shooting percentage of 10%. An off-day from either Primeau or the offense would spell disaster for this group.

(3) Cornell Big Red

How they got here: At-Large Bid (ECAC Runner-Ups)

NCAA Ranking: #10

Player to watch: Morgan Barron (So – F)

In normal circumstances, I would have Cornell down as another team that needs its goaltender to come up big to have a chance, but for the injury-ravaged Big Red, their most important player will be New York Rangers prospect Morgan Barron.

The two-time NCAA Hockey champions tied for their second straight ECAC regular-season title, before falling in overtime to Clarkson in the ECAC tournament. The biggest loss in that game, however, may have been starting goaltender Matthew Galajda, who is doubtful for the first-round.

As a result, sophomore Austin McGrath will likely be in net for Cornell, making it even more important that they can handle themselves offensively. In past years, they have been carried by stellar defense before faltering to high-octane offenses in the tournament.

They cannot rely on that this season, which is why Barron, their top scorer, will be so crucial. If he can help lead the offense, that in conjunction with their trademark shutdown defense could help them make a run. It helps that they get such a weak first-round opponent, but they need more.

(4) Providence Friars

How they got here: At-Large Bid (Hockey East)

NCAA Ranking: #11

Player to watch: Josh Wilkins (Jr – F)

If you are one of those people who likes to predict Cinderella stories in tournaments like this, then here is the team for you. The Providence Friars have the chance to take a lot of teams by surprise in this year’s NCAA Hockey tournament.

Perhaps the most underrated team in the tournament, Providence does not have a lot of flash. While Josh Wilkins is their top scorer, they really do not have anybody in any position who stands out significantly.

What they lack in pizzazz, however, they make up for in structure. The Friars consistently dominate the opposition in shot attempts, are great at limiting goals, and are above-average in scoring them. Plus, they essentially have “home-ice” with this region being hosted in Providence.

It is a shame, then, for both them and Minnesota State, that they have to face each other in the first round. For the fans, however, this is a godsend, as this could be the best game of the entire weekend. Get ready for some high-octane stuff, folks.

Midwest Regionals

Location: Allentown, PA

Dates: March 30-31

(1) Minnesota-Duluth Bulldogs

How they got here: NCHC Champions

NCAA Ranking: #2

Player to watch: Scott Perunovich (So – D)

The defending NCAA Hockey champions are back, and they are back with a vengeance. After an up-and-down regular season in the brutal NCHC, they took a 2OT classic over St. Cloud State to win the conference championship.

What is interesting about this team is that on paper they may not really stand out. They are elite defensively and solid offensively. They have a reliable goaltender and some decent depth up-front. But they do not have a game-changer in any position.

It does not matter. The reason they won the NCAA Hockey tournament last year was because they played hockey the right way and got timely goaltending. This year they are even better, posting a monstrous 60.8% shot attempts percentage, by far the best in the country.

There is a reason they were able to win the toughest conference in the country, and there is a reason why I picked them as my favorites to win the tournament last month. When they play their game, there is nobody who can beat them.

(2) Quinnipiac Bobcats

How they got here: At-Large Bid (ECAC)

NCAA Ranking: #8

Player to watch: Chase Priskie (Sr – D)

The 2016 NCAA Hockey tournament runner-ups tied with Cornell to win the ECAC regular season, before being upset in the conference tournament by Brown, a team that did not make the NCAA tournament.

They are arguably the best defensive team in the league, and are one of the best offensively as well. Goaltender Andrew Shortridge has been spectacular this season, posting a .941 save percentage. They controlled 54.6% of shot attempts at even strength.

Despite all of that, the curse of tournament hockey is that one off-day can doom you, as the Brown example shows. Because of that, I think two-way defenseman Chase Priskie is their most important player for the tournament.

The Washington Capitals prospect must lead by example on both ends of the ice. As a defenseman, he does not necessarily need to score the goals, but if he is playing the right way, his team will be more likely to succeed. Look out for the Bobcats – they could do something special.

(3) Arizona St. Sun Devils

How they got here: At-Large Bid (Independent)

NCAA Ranking: #14

Player to watch: Johnny Walker (So – F)

Wait, what? Yes, you are reading that correctly. In just their fourth season in NCAA Hockey, Arizona State University is making a tournament appearance. Led by Arizona native Johnny Walker, the Sun Devils are looking to make some more noise this year.

Before the Vegas Golden Knights comparisons get out-of-hand, however, let us get one thing clear: this team is very average. They played some good teams and some bad teams, and their overall statistics reflect that, both offensively and defensively.

It is very unlikely that they will be able to do much of anything in this tournament, especially given who they have to face in the first round. But honestly, their performance is not important. The fact that this team exists and has had this level of success is what matters.

(4) Bowling Green Falcons

How they got here: At-Large Bid (WCHA Runner-Ups)

NCAA Ranking: #15

Player to watch: Max Johnson (So – F)

It has been a long time coming, but after a solid regular season and an impressive showing against Minnesota State in the WCHA finals, for the first time since 1990, the Bowling Green Falcons have made it to the NCAA Hockey tournament.

The one-time national champions are a great story, and like Providence, are very underrated. They are one of the best possession teams in the country with a 56.5% shooting attempts percentage, and are one of the best teams in both goals for and goals against.

Like with Minnesota State – Providence, Minnesota-Duluth – Bowling Green could be an absolute barnburner, but at the end of the day, the Falcons are elite, while the Bulldogs are historically great. At least this should be a fun game for the fans to watch.

Whatever happens in the tournament, however, it is great to see Bowling Green back in the NCAA Hockey tournament. Here’s to many more appearances in the future.

Regional Winners:

West: (1) St. Cloud State Huskies

Northeast: (1) Massachusetts

East: (1) Minnesota State

Midwest: (1) Minnesota-Duluth

I know, I know, I am not exactly making any bold predictions here. The fact of the matter is, NCAA Hockey got their top seeds right this year. These four teams are the best in the country, I believe, and they all deserve to make it to the Frozen Four.

If I were to choose potential upsets, at the top of my list would be Providence from the East and Quinnipiac from the Midwest. They are both teams that I could absolutely see catching people by surprise with the way they control play.

On the flip side, I could also see Clarkson and Northeastern making Cinderella runs on the backs of their goaltenders. I believe Jake Kielly and Cayden Primeau could be the two best goaltenders in this tournament, and if they get hot for a weekend, they may be in the semifinals.

Semifinals:

(4) Massachusetts over (1) St. Cloud State

(2) Minnesota-Duluth over (3) Minnesota State

These two games were significantly more difficult to choose than the regional winners. From the top half of the bracket, I trust the Minutemen’s goaltending way more than I do the Huskies’, and Cale Makar would be the best player on the ice in that game.

From the bottom-half, I legitimately think this could be a toss-up. Both teams are so, so good and it is a shame that this cannot be the national final. Ultimately, I think the Bulldogs’ experience gives them the edge over the Mavericks.

Finals:

(2) Minnesota-Duluth over (4) Massachusetts

I said it a month ago, and I will say it now: the Minnesota-Duluth Bulldogs will become the first team since Denver in 2004 and 2005 to win back-to-back NCAA Hockey tournament titles.

Massachusetts may have more well-known players, but at the end of the day I will always fall back on the system over the talent. Minnesota-Duluth is having a historically great season possession-wise, and I cannot overlook that. They will be national champions for a third time.

What do you think? Who wins the national title? Who are you most looking forward to watching during the tournament? Join the conversation below, and enjoy some college hockey!